Recent Geopolitcal Events

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rubearish10's picture
rubearish10
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Recent Geopolitcal Events

Was wondering if we'll hear from Chris on his reaction to the Israeli invasion of Gaza and MH17 shootdown. Also, comment on ISIS as to how mysteriously they've gone somewhat quiet or it just doesn't qualify for the current 24hour new cycle. Once again, the impact on global finance remains contained, blah blah blah. All the best! Vinnie

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AlanDF
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I agree. I really like Chris'

I agree. I really like Chris' viewpoint on events that are not directly economic but could have big eceonomic consequences. As a matter of fact, I'm surprised that these events are not being discussed here.

cmartenson's picture
cmartenson
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Iraq nything but quiet! (and some MH17 & Gaza thoughts)
rubearish10 wrote:

Was wondering if we'll hear from Chris on his reaction to the Israeli invasion of Gaza and MH17 shootdown. Also, comment on ISIS as to how mysteriously they've gone somewhat quiet or it just doesn't qualify for the current 24hour new cycle. Once again, the impact on global finance remains contained, blah blah blah. All the best! Vinnie

I have a lot of thoughts...been following all of this very closely.

To begin, ISIS has been anything but quiet:

Islamic State overwhelms Iraqi forces at Tikrit in major defeat

Jul 18, 2014

IRBIL, IRAQ — Islamic State gunmen overran a former U.S. military base early Friday and killed or captured hundreds of Iraqi government troops who’d been trying to retake Saddam Hussein’s hometown of Tikrit, the worst military reversal Iraqi troops have suffered since the Islamist forces captured nearly half the country last month.

The defeat brought to an end a three-week campaign by the government in Baghdad to recapture Tikrit, which fell to the Islamic State on June 11. Military spokesmen earlier this week had confidently announced a final push to recapture the city.

Instead, Islamic State forces turned back the army’s thrust up the main highway Wednesday. Beginning late Thursday, the Islamist forces stormed Camp Speicher, a former U.S. military base named for a pilot who disappeared during the 1991 Persian Gulf War, and overwhelmed the troops there.

And:

Baghdad bombings kill dozens

Jul 19, 2014

A series of bombings, including three in the space of less than 10 minutes, killed at least 27 people across Baghdad on Saturday, shaking the fragile sense of security the capital has maintained despite the Sunni militant offensive in northern and western Iraq.

The attacks are among the most significant in Baghdad since insurgents led by the Islamic State (Isis) captured Iraq's second-largest city of Mosul last month at the start of its advance across the country.

After the fall of Mosul, the government moved aggressively to try to secure Baghdad in response to fears it might fall as well, and the city has seen few major attacks in recent weeks.

Saturday's deadliest bombing took place in the Shia neighborhood of Abu Dashir, where a suicide attacker drove a car packed with explosives into a checkpoint, killing at least nine people and wounding 19. Four policemen were among the dead, a police officer said.

Later in the day, three car bombs in different neighborhoods of Baghdad went off in less than 10 minutes, hitting the districts of Bayaa, Jihad and Khazimiya. The attacks killed at least 15 people and wounded another 42, police officials said.

A further car bomb near a bus stop in Khazimiya killed three people and wounded 15, according to police.

For some reason these and many other events in Iraq have gone largely missing from the western news cycle, and entirely missing from the "markets" as they fail to react now to anything and everything.

But they will.

The risks are now as large as they've been in decades for a major conflict to erupt between east and west and/or between Shia and Sunni.

If either or both of these things happen the price of oil will skyrocket although that may be the least of our worries.

My read on the MH 17 downing is that Russia has asked a lot of very important and pointed questions and provided evidence that I can sink my teeth into such as screen shots of Ukrainian fighter(s) in the exact vicinity of MH17 when it was shot down. What were they doing there?

Further evidence of Ukrainian Buk SA-11 missile battery operated by the Ukrainian government right in that exact region both painted the sky with radar right before MH-17 was shot down and then one of the battery trucks left the area. The pointed question is, why was Ukraine even operating an antiaircraft missile system at all given that the separatists do not have a single plane or helicopter they can fly?

Hmmmm? Given that, what was it doing there?

Those are very good questions.

And as for Gaza, the amount of hypocrisy on the part of the US , UK and Europe on display is simply appalling. How can Kerry work up so much outrage at the supposed lack of good treatment of the M17 bodies when he utters zero concern for the wounded and soon to die children of Gaza?

He can't, at least not morally or ethically. That gap in the US response tells us all that we need to know about the fact that both events are merely political in nature and have nothing at all to do with supposed concern for the citizens or passengers involved.

There's a full on propaganda war going on in both the west and inside Russia to demonize the other and I really don't think this is a very good development. However, I do think for the moment that Putin is displaying more restraint and composure than the west. For now.

 

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james_knight_chaucer
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Between Iraq and a Hard Place

This evening I found an old British comedy documentary that was shown in early 2003 that you guys might enjoy:

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Quercus bicolor
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cmartenson wrote: My read on
cmartenson wrote:

My read on the MH 17 downing is that Russia has asked a lot of very important and pointed questions and provided evidence that I can sink my teeth into such as screen shots of Ukrainian fighter(s) in the exact vicinity of MH17 when it was shot down. What were they doing there?

Further evidence of Ukrainian Buk SA-11 missile battery operated by the Ukrainian government right in that exact region both painted the sky with radar right before MH-17 was shot down and then one of the battery trucks left the area. The pointed question is, why was Ukraine even operating an antiaircraft missile system at all given that the separatists do not have a single plane or helicopter they can fly?

Hmmmm? Given that, what was it doing there?

Those are very good questions.

Chris,

If I interpret what you are saying correctly, this evidence suggests that the Ukrainian government shot down the plane.  I would assume their motivation would be to frame the rebels and place the blame on the rebels and Russia.  The other possibility is that the evidence you describe was fabricated by Russia in an effort to deflect blame from the rebels.  Comments and thoughts?

rubearish10's picture
rubearish10
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Recent Geopolitical Events

Ahhh, I knew you would have something to say! I'm certain your views of the situation are well in line with many Peak followers and others. I presume many of us (your subscribers) also share the frustration as to why and how this massively dangerous, tragic and despicable situation continues and can be so easily absorbed by the gadget giddy, tunnel visioned, over worked (3 part time jobs) American lemmings (I'm an American and don't think I'm a lemming but not a <1% so,,,,), just an average guy.

Chris, as you say, the propaganda war appears to be well entrenched and is working well enough for business to go on as usual until it doesn't. It is obvious that we as a nation as well as most Western civilizations cannot learn from past mistakes to leave us once again vulnerable to disaster. Naturally, when that disaster occurs by whatever method it is triggered and then cast upon us, we will briskly wake up and reflect on the evidence, warnings and events leading to it, as signals that could have avoided it and play the blame game, rebuild, make new laws and start all over again, this same cycle. Well, that would be too late as this time could very well be the worst we've ever experienced leaving us in serious despair.

Chris, I (we) commend you for pushing as hard as you do to encourage us to prepare, don't stop!!!!

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Doug
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truth the first casualty of war

That old maxim is certainly in play wrt MH17.  The US gov't and msm are beating the drum to blame Russia and by extension the Ukrainian rebels for the downing while no (as far as I know) objective evidence of same has been presented.  Russia, otoh, has presented evidence that Ukraine may have been responsible with no reaction from the west except to call Putin a liar.  It seems to me the muted response from the EU to calls from the US to further sanction Russia is an indication that they (EU) may be skeptical of US claims.

ZH has been pretty good at following this story.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-22/us-state-department-confident-m...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-22/us-government-releases-alleged-...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-22/latest-updates-about-ukraine-an...

Doug

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SagerXX
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I have been following these intertwined stories...

....(MH17, Ukraine sitch in general, Israel/Gaza conflict, et alia) with a growing sense of serious concern in recent weeks.  What little evidence is proffered, and reading between the lines when none is, all seem to me to point to growing desperation on the part of the US/West, which is causing reckless behavior (or if you will, the pursuit of reckless strategies).  

Without minimizing the horror that is Israel/Gaza, I'll focus my remarks on the Uke/MH17 situation.  

If, over the next few weeks or so, the ire of the West (but esp. the US's MSM) begins to become muted and attenuated and then finally attention is drawn away to something of lesser import (the color of Kanye & Kim's new bathroom renovation, or the [IMO] near-meaningless horse-races that are the mid-term elections), it will (a) be a great relief that we have once again evidently tip-toed past the potential onset of a hot shooting war that will make our ill-advised military excursions of the last decade-plus look like a merry game of paint-ball.  However, (b), I'll be looking forward to the Next Event, which will be intended to draw us into just such a shooting war -- the war that IMO is needed as cover for the big currency event/big market crash/big whatever ("Dangit, we had just *FINALLY* fixed everything, and that danged [INSERT VILLAIN DU JOUR HERE] went and started a war and ruined our brilliant work!" will cry the Fed/USGOV/TPTB).  And the deeper we get down this rabbit hole, the sadder it makes me to see what lengths the corrupted folks at the top are willing to leverage in order to stay on-plan (or [admitting the possibility they're just making it up as they go along] at least to stay up on top).

If anybody out there reading this doesn't have at least the bare essentials of the What Should I Do? series in place, I'd get Damned Busy.

The Syria Gambit failed nearly a year ago.  I'd guess the next gambit will be coming around the pike in ~ 6 months or less.  (Assuming this whole Uke/MH17/Putin gambit fails/blows over.)

{edit for emphasis -- An important opinion I forgot to state in original post is that larger and more desperate gambits will be undertaken [with ever-greater loss of life/economic/environmental cost] until TPTB either get what they want or they fall out of power.  MH-17 strikes closer to the heart of our society [many Western dead, etc.] and attempts to limn a much more toothsome villain [Putin and our old Cold-War rival Russia -- about which we in the West have so much old negative conditioning still knocking about].  If this gambit fails, things will have to go up yet another notch.  Anybody care to speculate?  The mere idea is bone-chilling....}

One man's take.  

Viva -- Sager

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