Prediction: Saudi is pretty much out of oil.

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FreeNL's picture
FreeNL
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Prediction: Saudi is pretty much out of oil.

My prediction is that they have less than 2 years of reserves left. All points lead to the fact that the Saudi's are desperate. The only reason they would have to be this desperate is their ace in the hole is now just a hole.

 

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HughK
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Kjell Aleklett on Saudi oil production

Hi FreeNL,

Below is an excerpt from Kjell Aleklett's Peeking at Peak Oil on Saudi oil production.  This Swedish expert on peak oil seems to think that between 9 and 12 million barrels per day until 2030 is possible, although at the higher cost of increasing production at medium oil fields.  If I'm not interpreting the quote below correctly, I'd love to hear that, as I'm doing this while on evening dormitory study hall duty and it's time to make my rounds.  :)  Obviously, the fact that Saudi's domestic oil consumption is growing rapidly, and that many/most of Saudi's supergiant oil fields are past their production peaks, so  scarcity and growing consumption in KSA is a major concern in terms of global oil use, but I might not go so far as to say that they're running out of oil within the next couple of years, although we're all running out of oil in the medium to long run.

Cheers,

Hugh

 

From Peeking at Peak Oil by Kjell Aleklett:
The Uppsala Global Energy Systems research group has made a special study of Saudi Arabia’s ten supergiant fields that, together, possess over 80% of that nation’s proven and possible reserves (2P; see Table 13.1). In 2004, production from these fields was 9.4 million barrels per day (Mb/d) and our MSC analysis shows that production from them can reach 10.9 Mb/d in 2012 and then fall to 8.9 Mb/d by 2030. The remaining 20 oil fields that were in production in 2004 were producing 1.0 Mb/d at that time and this must rise to 1.1 Mb/d in 2012 if Saudi Arabia is to attain its officially stated production capacity of 12.0 Mb/d. To maintain production at 12 Mb/d until 2030 the volume from oil fields other than the ten supergiants must increase to 3.1 Mb/d. Our MSC analysis shows that production at 12.0 Mb/d is possible until 2029. At the presentation at CSIS in Washington, Saudi Aramco identified 2033 as the point in time when 12.0 Mb/d of MSC production could no longer be sustained. That our analysis arrives at a date of 2029 for this timepoint is, in fact, in remarkably close agreement with Saudi Aramco’s date considering the paucity of public data on which our analysis is based and our unique methodology (based on our discoveries regarding DRRR behavior for giant fields; see Chap. 9). 
 
Our analysis of projected Saudi Arabian production in 2030 can be compared with that made by the IEA in  WEO 2005 . The IEA projected Saudi Arabian oil production at 18.2 Mb/d of which 3.4 Mb/d is to come from upward revision of reserves in previously discovered oil fi elds and from completely new  fi elds to be found by 2030. The volume of new reserves needed by 2030 is around 50 Gb. We regard this as unrealistic.
 
 Without intervention (additional investment) Saudi Arabia’s production  from  fi elds that were producing in 2004 would decline by 6% per year  [ 8 ] .  This is the same rate of decline that we found in our analysis of global oil  production  [14] . Without additional investment, production that was  10.35 Mb/d in 2004 would be 2.0 Mb/d in 2030. The projects in Khurais,  Manifa, and Shaybah compensate for a decline of 2.9 Mb/d but more large projects are needed. Thousands of wells must be drilled for those  fields that  are currently in production.  All this work will require costly investment.   When we state from our analyses that it is possible to produce 12.0 Mb/d in 2030 this is based on the assumption that  financing will be found for these projects.
FreeNL's picture
FreeNL
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You havent taken into account

You havent taken into account that the fact that the house of Saud are liars who would never reveal their hand at any cost.

they say 2030, i say 2016.

the real question is this. If i was Saudi Arabia and i was almost out of oil, what would i do in the years preceding everyone finding out? Would i try to eliminate all my enemies before i lost the use of the war machine?

 

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FreeNL, Why do you say this?

Do you have some information to share on this subject?  Or is this mostly your best guess on the reasons that they are pushing for war?  

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SA is not running out oil yet

"the real question is this. If i was Saudi Arabia and i was almost out of oil, what would i do in the years preceding everyone finding out? Would i try to eliminate all my enemies before i lost the use of the war machine?"

If SA production was going to run oil in two years, production would have already fallen off a cliff. SA production probably has peaked, but it will be sometime before SA is no longer an exporter. Although a SA Civil war, or a regional war (with Syria\Iran) could knock out production. The costs for maintaining production in SA is certainly rising, but SA still have some of the cheapest oil since tankers can park right next to its fields and load up, and its production comes mostly from on-shore wells. On the other hand many nations have turned to deep offshore drilling (ie US, Europe, etc), Fracking, or Oil Sands to maintain production. The costs for these non-conventional sources is many times more expense than conventional drilling (like in SA). 

Based upon various sources such as Ron Pattersons Blog (http://peakoilbarrel.com/) and other Peak oil sites, the cost of Oil will probably rise another 20% by 2016 as drillers need to spend more money on non-conventional drilling. That said its possible that demand destruction will kick in at some point which make lower prices for a period. Consider that since the $140/bbl spike Demand in Western countries (North America, Europe) is down 10% to 20% from peak levels. If Demand had not declined a lot more money would have been needed to increase\maintain production. Global Oil production can probably increase if there is enough money to invest in drilling and infrastructure, but its difficult to see that production will rise much since the global economy appears to be weaking again.

PS Its also possible that with all of the money printing (by just about every major central bank) that it will cause oil prices to rise (ie global stagflation\inflation), even if there is demand destruction.

 

 

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Arthur Robey
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Kneeling 'neath your Ceiling.

The way I see it as oil prices rise, economies become ever more fragile. This forms the Ceiling on oil prices.

The demand for oil then drops off and so does the price, until it is no longer profitable to look for new oil. This forms the Floor on oil prices.

The cost of oil extraction increases as the easy-to-find stuff is used up.  The Floor rises up.

Meanwhile the Ceiling comes down as markets are weakened by repeated downturns.

When the Floor and the Ceiling meet the game is up. (Except for a few extraordinarly placed people who will continue to party on until their security apparatus fails.)

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Saudi Oil In Perspective

For starters, it's not possible for Saudi Arabia (SA) to 'run out' of oil any time soon....it takes decades of dwindling for super major fields to 'run out,' and even then you can always pump more if you are willing to take and process 99% water cuts.

Since their major fields are pumping ~10 million barrels per day (mbd), they will continue to pump for decades more.

If, instead, a more precise guess is being debated here, which is when SA oil production will peak, then I am comfortable with Kjell's analysis, although I would discount their numbers somewhat just in case the SA leaders have been overstating reserves or under-reporting water cut percentages, either of which are likely to me here.

Certainly the SA leadership has been instrumental in knocking about their regional oil producing competitors by supporting various incursions and military actions, in word if not deed, and that has me wondering a bit about why they are becoming more bellicose. 

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OPEC reserve exaggerations

Hi FreeNL,

I agree with your suggestion that Saudi Arabia and other OPEC states exaggerate their reserves.  This was something that, if I recall correctly, Matthew Simmons explained in the film Crude Awakening, and I would also assume he wrote about it in his book, Twilight in the Desert, which I haven't read.

The graph below, taken from Wikipedia's page on peak oil, shows how first Kuwait, then the rest of these OPEC members, suddenly announced an increase in reserves between '84 and '87, presumably exaggerations that were designed to increase their allowable export quotas under OPEC rules.  This fits with Chris' statement that KSA is likely overstating its reserves.

Cheers,

Hugh

FreeNL's picture
FreeNL
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Im not saying there wont be a

Im not saying there wont be a drop left, but they will start hurting faster than you think.

im gonna stand by my gut prediction and well see what happens. Im not saying the world, just SA.

I also understand the logistics of peak oil, but i believe that in a place like SA, you would never be allowed enough truth in the first place to do any science.

Theyve jumped the shark, and are doing everything in their power to hide it. Part of the american government knows though and are doing everything they can to take the pressure off.

just my opinion of course.  

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Quercus bicolor
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60+ billion barrels pumped since 1989

KSA pumped 60+ billion barrels between increasing their reserves in 1989 and the last year on the chart  and yet - their reserves actually increased slightly since then.  The same goes for the other nations: about 10-20 billion barrels pumped, reserves steady or increasing.  Lots of new finds and enhanced recovery methods each year or fuzzy math?

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Whether you agree with

 

Whether you agree with Michael C. Ruppert or not, he gives a good analysis about Peak Oil/Energy.  

Debt money with interest needs constant energy consumption, It's going to bite future Generations in the Ass!!

 

FreeNL's picture
FreeNL
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I like Michael Ruppert, he

I like Michael Ruppert,

he speaks the truth, which im certain everyone here is aware.

 

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jneo
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It's a MAD WORLD We can do

It's a MAD WORLD

 

 

We can do much better.  If not then we deserve to get what we deserve.  

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sand_puppy
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Michael Ruppert does the Crash Course

Thanks for posting this riveting video, jneo.  (comment #11, above)

It really looks like Michael Ruppert has seen the crash course.  How else could his passions and content have so closely lined up with CM's?

Very interesting and well done.

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jneo
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You're welcome Sand Puppy.

You're welcome Sand Puppy.  Ok so how about the Abiotic theory of OIL?  Have Allegiance to INFORMATION not a political party or things of that nature.  Enjoy.  OOOOoooo I like this topic, Thank you FreeNL

 

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Stan Robertson
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jneo wrote: You're welcome
jneo wrote:

You're welcome Sand Puppy.  Ok so how about the Abiotic theory of OIL?  Have Allegiance to INFORMATION not a political party or things of that nature.  Enjoy.  OOOOoooo I like this topic, Thank you FreeNL

The video set a new record for me. That is the greatest compilation of misinformation and outright failures of both knowledge and understanding that I have ever seen presented in such a short time. This is just typical of people whose comfortable existence depends on something that they have never taken the trouble to understand. It is a forgiving universe that lets anyone live this way.

jneo's picture
jneo
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WOW STan I like your comment

WOW STan I like your comment .......NOT.  U are BORING.....Bring Substance.   Your comment is a mist. 

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