The Texas Shale Oil & Gas Revolution - Leading the Way to Enhanced Energy Security

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finanindecia's picture
finanindecia
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The Texas Shale Oil & Gas Revolution - Leading the Way to Enhanced Energy Security

According to this article, the future is bright, and oil and natural gas are the future.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidblackmon/2013/03/19/the-texas-shale-oil...

This seems to contradict the idea that we've reached or passed peak oil and peak natural gas.

Thoughts?

SimonR4's picture
SimonR4
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Technology in Last 3 Changes the Oil and Gas Picture Completely

A new report (The Shale Oil Boom: a US Phenomenon) by Leonardo Maugeri of Harvard University, sets out just how astonishing the shale oil revolution already is. 

http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/draft-2.pdf
 

After falling for 30 years, US oil production rocketed upwards in the past three years. In 1995 the Bakken field was reckoned by the US Geological Survey to hold a trivial 151 million barrels of recoverable oil. In 2008 this was revised upwards to nearly 4 billion barrels; two months ago that number was doubled. It is a safe bet that it will be revised upwards.

 

Stan Robertson's picture
Stan Robertson
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High oil prices are here to stay despite the shale revolution
SimonR4 wrote:

A new report (The Shale Oil Boom: a US Phenomenon) by Leonardo Maugeri of Harvard University, sets out just how astonishing the shale oil revolution already is. 

The only thing that is astonishing is Maugeri's lack of understanding of oil reserves and production. If you want to see a good critique of his errors look here and here.

Stan

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gillbilly
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Posts: 423
God Bless Texas...

at the end of the article says it all. I wish they would leave God out of these types of articles...somehow I don't think you'll find much of him in Houston since the meek, the poor, and downtrodden are what we traditionally align with God. Please consider your source:

http://growingtexas.tamu.edu/Speakers/DavidBlackmon

This guy lives, breathes, and loves Texas, oil, and gas. But by all means believe what you want.

Christopher H's picture
Christopher H
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SimonR4 wrote: After falling

SimonR4 wrote:

After falling for 30 years, US oil production rocketed upwards in the past three years.

Rocketed?  Hahahaha!  What we saw was a slight uptick in a long decline.  See the graph below.  The beginnings of the "shale oil boom" are that "surge" at the end of the graph.  No way we're getting back anywhere close to 9.6 mb/d.

SimonR4 wrote:

In 1995 the Bakken field was reckoned by the US Geological Survey to hold a trivial 151 million barrels of recoverable oil. In 2008 this was revised upwards to nearly 4 billion barrels; two months ago that number was doubled. It is a safe bet that it will be revised upwards.

There are several issues with citing the USGS numbers here.  First is the methodology by which they arrive at their estimates.  They basically just take the areas that have already been explored/discovered, and extend those reserves over all other areas not explored/discovered as of yet.  In short, they're overly optimistic and about as reliable as OPEC internal estimates.  Second is the fact that the amount recoverable is not the confining factor -- it is the rate of extraction.

And none of this even begins address the rate of decline of existing wells combined with the way that shale oil and gas wells show production profiles that have a sharp upward tick followed almost immediately by a crash, which is very much unlike conventional wells.

 

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SimonR4
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I am no expert, just citing info I came across

I am not an expert on oil or this issue. Glad to hear clarifying, albeit confusing, alternative views on this issue. I would like to hear Chris' analysis of the true impact of fracking on the oil supply for the US. Fracking has seemed to drive the price of natural gas down and supply up. Or am I mistaken on that as well.

 

 

treemagnet's picture
treemagnet
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Posts: 344
Take her back down

to two E's everyone, parties over - you don't have to go home but you can't stay here.....disband PP, problem solved!!!!!!!

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/the-biggest-oil-discovery-in-50-years

FREEEEEEEEEDDDDOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!

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susanattheville
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Posts: 20
WTF?

treemagnet -

Any thoughts on this article? I hadn't heard anything about it until you posted it. Perhaps this is why all the embassies are being closed in the Middle East? We're moving lock, stock and carrier battle group to Australia to protect "our" new oil assets (much like the new American, er I mean "Canadian" tar sands...) Can't let the Chinese trade their real gold for real oil - we have to get someone to take our paper for real oil. North Dakota and Texas are already drying up - or being flared off.

Maybe Arthur Roby could enlighten us on this issue?

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