Missed the big market rally?--What to do now

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redinr08's picture
redinr08
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Joined: Mar 21 2008
Posts: 20
Missed the big market rally?--What to do now

Has anyone read the Barry Ritholtz article on missing the stock market rally?  After reading it, especially his point #3, I feel stupid for being in cash.  However, I don't trust being in the market, nor the risk of doing so.  But still feel bad for not being a better custodian or good steward of the money savings that I accumulated--hate to think of it's loss of purchasing power due to inflation in the past six years.  And I am uncertain of what action to take going forward, as whatever investments may be "all for nought".

Link to article:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/missed-the-big-market-rally-heres-what-to-do-now/2013/06/14/b9b96894-d1e3-11e2-a73e-826d299ff459_story.html

dickd's picture
dickd
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Joined: Nov 2 2011
Posts: 14
Missed the big market rally?

I'm in the same boat and missed the rally and still in cash.  The part that really bothers me is that I'm retired and on Soc Sec.  I've been "down" lately thinking about this and how fearful I've been the last couple years about losing all of my savings.  This article is "spot-on" I believe and gives me a formula to re-invest in the USA which I still believe will do well during the rest of my 20 years of expected life span.

Thank you VERY much for mentioning this article!

mogga71's picture
mogga71
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Joined: May 19 2012
Posts: 3
IMHO Do not invest now

The ONLY reason stocks have gone up so much is because of the massive QE operations.  Don't let anybody tell you any different.  Anybody who thinks that the economy is improving is living in cloud cuckoo land.  Just look around ...what does your instinct tell you? I see higher prices everywhere ... and they are in the shops that have not been forced to close down. 

I would be very, very careful at this point in investing in anything as the Fed is 'talking' about tapering the QE .... this has already spooked the markets....imagine what would happen if they did actually do the tapering.  I dont reckon they will .... I think we may well be looking at eternal QE until some form of collapse.  I reckon Bernanke 'knows' we are screwed...just look at him these days....he looks like a beaten man. 

I dont reckon the guy who wrote that article is a journalist...I believe he is a fund manager....what do you expect him to say? 

 
VeganDB12's picture
VeganDB12
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Joined: Jul 18 2008
Posts: 741
I respect Barry but....

I am at a loss for why he did not bang this drum so loudly a few years ago.  Now it feels like gloating and so easy to do after the fact. I have been mostly in cash for 4 years and I love looking at my accounts and seeing the same balance each day.  My amateur read is BR is giving advice based on efficient market theory, value investing, etc... with dollar cost averaging and diversification among different asset classes. All the stuff we were supposed to do before the crash. Except the underlying principles for these actions no longer exist (like reliable fundamentals, reasonably honest markets).

As has been out many times, these have always been dangerous markets. I feel sad for missing out on some gains but no one knew what was going to happen. I have not missed a night's sleep for being in cash, I am just learning to live on less and sleep better.

SPAM_whipperbubba's picture
SPAM_whipperbubba
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Joined: Jun 26 2013
Posts: 6
Silver Eagles

if you're interested in purchasing silver at spot, visit www.spoteagles.com. they also offer a discount on gold eagles.

kennyq's picture
kennyq
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 30 2008
Posts: 82
Buy silver if you have cash!!!

Missing the stock market rally? big mistake? No.

I saved and park my cash in a bank for two years. The bank manager called me a few times to invest his suggested portfolio.

Have you thought of silver? I will be all in when it's $14-17.  But the premium went up 50 cents per coin already.

I think that we are in a deflation spiral similar to the great depression. Like Chris pointed out Fed's "double down" may be coming in, we're better of wait a little. Silver may have a chance to go down single digits. what do you all think?

 

Tommygun's picture
Tommygun
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 21 2009
Posts: 65
Missed the rally...no worries

There are certain sectors of the economy that will grow in spite of market sell offs and pull backs.These sectors can be found when we spend time reflecting on the American culture and how people are thinking.

There are trends in lifestyle, food changes,mandatory health insurance, gas and oil exploration. The recession has been since 2008 roughly...will durable goods like appliances have to be replaced eventually ?. What have Americans put off buying that needs to be replaced and is an inevitable purchase over the course of 5-8 years ?

The stock market may be near an all time high, but so is the loaf of nine grain bread I just bought. Why aren't those rising consumer prices (and the diminished purchasing power of the dollar) reflected in the price of gold/silver ?

I know that someone big is accumulating a lot of gold. It is in the DNA of a central banker to like to have gold. That is why a lower price in gold is like pulling off on the freeway at a rest stop to gas up. Its going to be a long trip and the road keeps going. Gold has a future and the sovereign banks know that.Time to refuel.

Didn't Greenspan write an article years and years ago about gold and its true value ? For now...it is important for the Feds to keep the dollar strong and to be a safe haven in order to still be the worlds currency.They will do anything they can to keep this thing called  American money very attractive to hold.

But nevertheless...there are stock market sectors that will continue to grow no matter what.

I remember  back in 2008/09 when Morgan Stanley crashed and needed to get a bailout and became a bank. The broker that I had was buying as many shares at he could around 6-7 bucks or something like that. Don't be afraid of opportunity. I was afraid and I pulled my money out of there. Little did I know.

I guess there is no ending to this...other than to say take a rest from the financial media and look at the culture of American and world thinking of the common people and you will begin to know where they are going and then you will know what sector and what stocks are going to flourish over the long haul.

Thats how I view things.

Doug's picture
Doug
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 1 2008
Posts: 3176
song lyric

Reminds me of the Waylon Jennings lyric:

"Ladies touch babies like a banker touches gold.

Outlaws touch ladies somewhere deep down in their soul."

There's wisdom somewhere in those relationships.

Doug

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