$400 gold?

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ltlredwagon's picture
ltlredwagon
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$400 gold?

I am familiar with all the reasons why there will be $2,000 - $3,000+ gold in the future.  Makes sense to me.  I'm on the gold/silver bandwagon, but I must say I always get a little worried when EVERYONE seems to be on the bandwagon and this is NOT an area in which I am an expert, even though I made what I think is a well-reasoned decision based on the data I have. 

Are there any respected persons on the other side?   Anyone saying, "You guys are all just freakin' out – most likely this and this and this will happen and gold will drop back down to the $300-400 range."    Is there any valid point of view which sees gold never reaching the spectacular highs all are expecting, but just settling down and/or drifting back?  Has anyone reasoned out a set of circumstances or series of events which would significantly stabilize/lower gold prices, or precipitate a collapse? I know that one of the best things about this forum is that it accomodates a wide variety of viewpoints:  who is the best spokesperson for the "other side"?    

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capesurvivor
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Re: $400 gold?

To my mind, in the short to medium term, the market is the best spokeperson for the "other side". Look at a GLD chart or some of the nynex gold ccharts and see what you think the trend is.

LT, Iam long gold but, as I posted elsewhere, ST, I'm short via GLL. Feb through August are often weak times for gold (not last year, tho!).

JMHO. You may get other opinions here and it's your $$.

GLTA.

SG

 

 

 

 

caroline_culbert's picture
caroline_culbert
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Re: $400 gold?

Why is gold value falling so rapidly?

strabes's picture
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Re: $400 gold?

The case for the other side is "we're in massive debt deflation."  We are not in inflation...yet...the extra credit the Fed is magically creating is dwarfed by the size of the credit bubble that's bursting.  As long as deflation rules, gold will settle back down, though I highly doubt it will drop to the degree you're asking about.  

The other piece of data is that bull sentiment is 80-90%...there's not much left to drive gold higher...in fact overly bullish sentiment is, as you suggest, a bearish potential.  

As cape says, long term, gold is inevitably going to be worth a lot...the foundation of the global monetary system (the $) is on its last leg. 

Ragnar_Danneskjold's picture
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Re: $400 gold?

I'm not sure whether anyone would call me a respected personSmile, but I've been hesistant to jump into a position much above $700. I've been waiting for a good pullback.  In the short term, I think gold is in a trading range between $650 and $1000.  But a pullback to $400 would seem ridiculously oversold to me, and a tremendous opportunity. 

We're experiencing the effects of disinflation and deleveraging at the moment, and that may continue for awhile, but I think hyperinflation is inevitable based on what the Fed has done.  The Fed or IMF could start dumping gold on the market, and that would definitely bring the price down, but that would only further weaken their hand in the long run.

 

caroline_culbert's picture
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Re: $400 gold?

Yeah... but isn't inflation relative to the inflation of currencies held against the dollar?  If we're experiencing inflation we might not recognize it because the rest of the worlds' currencies are inflating at a faster rate which keeps the dollar value higher (relatively)????

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Re: $400 gold?

Gold is experiencing a pullback right now which is perfectly normal, I personally see it pulling back to the $850 level, right around where the 200 day moving average is.  If Gold falls below the 200 day moving average, and can't get back above it relatively soon, then I would start to worry.  However there is a major support level at $700 that should hold.  Right now if Gold pulls back to $850, then the next natural level it should reach is the $1200-$1300 range.  When the money that the government has printed recently starts to create inflation then that is when gold is truly going to sky rocket.  I have read that Gold can go anywhere from $2,000 and ounce to $15,000 an ounce.  Things tend to overshoot, just look at gold in 1980 to see how fast it shot up.  Then Paul Volker came in and offered bonds at %15 which absorbed all the excess money the government printed in the 1970's. Then gold went way down and was never heard from untill ten years ago.  Look for something similar like this to happen in the future, where the chairman of the fed raises interest rates to pry people away from the gold market.  Who wants to hold onto a Gold bar, when you can get %15 in your savings account.  However if true hyperinflation does occur then you will not want to trade your gold for dollars because they will be worthless.  Look to history, this has all happened before and it is happening again.  Just make sure to watch the graphs and to sell when it best makes sense to you.  Remember pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered, aka don't get too greedy. 

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Re: $400 gold?

Caroline,

The Federal Reserve has increased the Adjusted Monetary Base in excess of 100% from year ago levels.  That is monetary inflation. Other currencies are also fiat, but float based on an exchange rate relative to US dollars.  The fact that countries have or will adjust the value of their currency through exchange rates means very little in the end. Our currency is the basis for others, and our monetary base has been inflated.  Just to put this in perspective, the link below shows a chart of % change going back to 1918.  What the Fed has done recently is unprecendented.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/fredgraphfile?&chart_type=line&graph_id=0&category_id=&recession_bars=On&width=630&height=378&bgcolor=%23B3CDE7&graph_bgcolor=%23FFFFFF&txtcolor=%23000000&preserve_ratio=true&&s_1=1&s[1][id]=AMBSL&s[1][transformation]=pc1&s[1][scale]=Left&s[1][range]=Max&s[1][cosd]=1918-01-01&s[1][coed]=2009-02-01&s[1][line_color]=%230000FF&&s[1][mark_type]=NONE&s[1][line_style]=Solid

 

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Re: $400 gold?

I know most of memebers here trade in USD, Can any one give suggestions for those who do not have exposure to USD but to GBP?

Gold is all time high (more than double than 80's level)  in terms of GBP and INR. For most of the world gold is bubble now and they are waiting for it to burst.

Any suggestions/analysis is welcome.

 

-sidds 

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Re: $400 gold?

 

Quote:

Anyone saying, "You guys are all just freakin' out – most likely this and this and this will happen and gold will drop back down to the $300-400 range." 

My grandpa said that to me yesterday.
He's a sharp guy - but I got to thinking - it's not really the value of the Gold, it's the paper buying it.

No matter how you cut it, Gold is worth more than greenbacks. Doesn't matter if you exchanged $300 debt notes, or $2000.

Cheers!

Aaron

 

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Re: $400 gold?

This is a timely link from today's copy of the U.K. Telegraph  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/gold/

It's in their finance section, everything about gold!

One thing nagging at the back of my brain: economic bubbles are nothing new in human history, but doesn't it seem like our generation is rushing into & creating bubbles much much faster than prior generations?

Don't know world history as well as I should (so those of you who do feel free to correct me) but my limited understanding is that there were major economic bubbles every 30 - 50 years or so. Now it's like we run from one bubble and into another every 2-3 years-->Tech bubble-->Stock bubble-->Real Estate bubble-->Oil/Commodities Bubble . . . What's next?

As to why the increase in rate of bubbles, I doubt that it's due to any change in human behavior, but rather due to the massive rate of increase in communication & spread of information. A hundred years ago it might have taken weeks or months for people in one country to find out what was going on in another country, now it's reported & spread worldwide in mere minutes, enabling us all to act / react en masse.

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Re: $400 gold?

It's important when dealing with issues of gold and gold values to try and disassociate it from conventional attitudes to investment. Clearly gold brings no dividend, interest or return. When markets function normally (or at least to normal levels of dysfunctionality) paper investments deliver better short term returns. What gold achieves uniquly is that it's never worth nothing. Stocks, notes and dollar bills cannot guarantee this. If you salt away a proportion of your capital in ounces it will always have some value and that value will increase when other forms of capital are under threat.

Bluntly, there isn't the physical quantity of goldon the planet at current per ounce rates to contain the trillions of dollars of paper "wealth" that will be looking for a safe home if a systemic meltdown takes place. It's been estimated that at current values only 1% of equity wealth can be contained within the finite tons of gold that have ever been mined - and remain above ground (or in most cases a few feet under ground in vaults and basements). So the prospect of high gold $ values when the system shudders is market driven and almost inevitable. Talk of $3000 gold betrays a misunderstanding of  the difference between price and value. In hyperinflation gold may reach stupid $ prices, yet not be any more valuable - but it will buy what paper cannot and hence be invaluable. I read that at the time of king Nebuchadnezzar  - who was a biblical gold bug - an ounce bought 350 loaves of bread which is about how many loaves it can buy at today's price. Dollars don't do that. Some years an ounce of gold it is worth 300 loaves and some years 900 loaves, but it rarely swings "orders of magnitude" in the way that fiat money does in crises, nor does it drip away in value over the years like paper dollars do. So it's best to just consider gold as the ultimate hedge against crisis and authoritarian chichanery, acquire it and pretend to forget you have it (but not where you put it...) Be glad you have it and equally glad if you don't have to rely on it. What other insurance policy indemnifies AND has a redemption value in the case of no claim?

A further meme. The Fed is a private organisation which is backed by private financiers who achieved the amazing coup in 1913 of printing the nation's money, and charging us interest on something of no intrinsic value. That's a smart trick. The Fed now has the Treasury (ie you and me) in hock to the tune of extra trillions due to bail outs. We will pay taxes for ever to try and repay and it will never end. The population is unwittingly indentured to a private bank that has no real money - just the right to tax us. Over the years the dynasties behind the Fed  have earnt trillions. Faceless families who make Buffet look poor. This crisis was predictable. Therefore at some level it was avoidable and therefore it is intentional. Smart people like that don't lose the plot. They don't sit on a a tree branch whilst sawing it off. If the dollar becomes worthless and a new world order and currency results, don't think that the trillions creamed off the top by the Fed since 1913 is sat in dollar bills or other notes. It will be in tangible finite assets and form the basis of what is to come. To quote from the original 1969 "Italian Job" film (the one without Mark Wahlberg...)  when Turin is brought to gridlock by the bullion thieves the Turin police chief observes "they created this traffic jam and they must have planned a way out of it." Think like the faceless families who own the Fed, and carve your own little life raft against the deluge that awaits.

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ltlredwagon
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Re: $400 gold?

Thanks for that, Notdoq.  As clear and succinct an analysis on this subject as I've seen to date.  

 

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Re: $400 gold?

"In hyperinflation gold may reach stupid $ prices, yet not be any more valuable. . . ."

True.  This is why I feel like having debt is as important as having PMs.  (If you believe high inflation is coming.)

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Re: $400 gold?

I just joined the forum. So it's not a good idea to invest in Gold right now or am I mistaken?

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Re: $400 gold?

You have to make that decision yourself.  An accountant once told me that if you lose even one night's sleep over an investment that you shouldn't be in it. Just invest in what you feel comfortable investing in, but remember, as Chris Martenson has said, gold will never go to down to zero.

I question at times where gold will go as well, but a strong indicator to be bullish on gold is that a lot of the big-time investors, i.e. Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, George Soros, etc. have all recommended purchasing gold.  Marc Faber recently said that if he was in jail and could not phone a broker, he would rather have gold than anything, including real estate because it would be worth something when he got out. 

What really stands out to me personally is that Bruce Norris  http://www.thenorrisgroup.com/ , a total real estate investor (he's made a fortune in real estate) advised his students at a recent seminar to purchase some gold and silver. You might not be able to find it on-line, but I have a copy of the book from the seminar where he makes that point. 

The concern is the dollar losing its value, so one should own "tangible" assets, something real, as opposed to a stock, which is just a piece of paper or blip on a computer screen, or dollars which could quickly lose its value due to Bernanke's bill printing habit (it's like a heroin for him).  Also, lot of central banks are purchasing gold.  Lastly, the price of gold has not gone down as much as at least I have expected.  When the markets go, up gold usually goes down.  That has not happened that much in the last few weeks. 

Gold can go up and down very quickly, so you have to stick with your strategy if you choose to go with it.   

I'm no expert, but I think it's prudent for everyone to look at the possible down-side to any investment they get into, especially in these volatile times when nothing is assured and there's either too much information or outright misinformation out there. 

Good luck, take your time and feel comfortable in what you do. 

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Re: $400 gold?

Just saw a number, it costs Barricks 400 just to extract an ounce from Mother Earth right now.  If they are a charity then gold should go to 400 Wink

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Re: $400 gold?

great first post notdoq.

welcome

i think there is a psychology in investing in gold that needs exploration.

many have bought gold because of the possibility of a collapse of the fiat money system. many have bought it as a hedge against infaltion or hyperinflation. many have bought it because someone told them to.

i think many will hold on to gold for the same reason people have held on to their 401k's and ira's. what else are they going to do after they have bought in at 600,700,800, or 900 they will hate to take a loss and will stay with it till it comes back up.

they will do this unless they are forced to sell the gold to pay bills. i think this will support the price of gold over the long haul.

anyone got any other ideas?

 

.'s picture
.
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Re: $400 gold?
plantguy90 wrote:

Just saw a number, it costs Barricks 400 just to extract an ounce from Mother Earth right now.  If they are a charity then gold should go to 400 Wink

 

I am going to assume that cost is just for extraction.  How much more does it cost to process it into an American Eagle?  This would seem to suggest a price support of at least $500 and ounce?  With the IEA report on the next oil shock that was posted here in the last two days I seriously doubt mining cost will go down in the future.  I really doubt we will ever see $300 - $400 gold again just based on that point alone.  Is this assumption correct? 

mocmaker's picture
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Re: $400 gold?

I've recently become aware that there are some folks who believe that gold is not a "free-floating" commodity which is immune to changes in fiat currency, but simply another tool used by the bankers to regulate and control the extent of inflation/deflation... and this process is handled in much the same way that a lot of business is handled in this country, i.e., behind the scenes. The deliberate impression conveyed by the media is that we are protected against outright theft and fraud by a government whose primary concern is the welfare of its citizens... but this is not the case, is it?

I believe, and have for many years, that gold is the safest possible investment... but it might be wise to stay abreast of all-too-possible  hanky panky in the "free" market. You can safely assume that any effective way to extract money from the less informed will (and is) being exploited.

Suggested reading: www.gata.org

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Re: $400 gold?

notdoq said -  (Post #11)

A further meme. The Fed is a private organisation which is backed by private financiers who achieved the amazing coup in 1913 of printing the nation's money, and charging us interest on something of no intrinsic value. That's a smart trick. The Fed now has the Treasury (ie you and me) in hock to the tune of extra trillions due to bail outs. We will pay taxes for ever to try and repay and it will never end. The population is unwittingly indentured to a private bank that has no real money - just the right to tax us. Over the years the dynasties behind the Fed  have earnt trillions. Faceless families who make Buffet look poor. This crisis was predictable. Therefore at some level it was avoidable and therefore it is intentional. Smart people like that don't lose the plot. They don't sit on a a tree branch whilst sawing it off. If the dollar becomes worthless and a new world order and currency results, don't think that the trillions creamed off the top by the Fed since 1913 is sat in dollar bills or other notes. It will be in tangible finite assets and form the basis of what is to come. To quote from the original 1969 "Italian Job" film (the one without Mark Wahlberg...)  when Turin is brought to gridlock by the bullion thieves the Turin police chief observes "they created this traffic jam and they must have planned a way out of it." Think like the faceless families who own the Fed, and carve your own little life raft against the deluge that awaits.

This is great stuff, thanks (H/T cat233).  The amazing thing is that they have been able to loot the people for almost 100 years now and few seem to notice.  If the scheme were very complicated, this would almost be understandable, but the scam is obvious.  They create money (at no cost to them) and we supply the collateral.  Then when we need money, we borrow it from them.  We are accumulating an unsustainable debt ($11.5-$14 trillion) and are struggling to pay the interest while never paying down the principal.  At the same time, we have the power to directly issue our money, totally free from debt.

I agree with your comment - "the amazing coup in 1913."  That's exactly what happened



.   The question people should be asking is why have we been subjected to this illegal scheme for so long?


Larry

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Re: $400 gold?
ltlredwagon wrote:

I am familiar with all the reasons why there will be $2,000 - $3,000+ gold in the future.  Makes sense to me.  I'm on the gold/silver bandwagon, but I must say I always get a little worried when EVERYONE seems to be on the bandwagon and this is NOT an area in which I am an expert, even though I made what I think is a well-reasoned decision based on the data I have. 

Are there any respected persons on the other side?   Anyone saying, "You guys are all just freakin' out – most likely this and this and this will happen and gold will drop back down to the $300-400 range."    Is there any valid point of view which sees gold never reaching the spectacular highs all are expecting, but just settling down and/or drifting back?  Has anyone reasoned out a set of circumstances or series of events which would significantly stabilize/lower gold prices, or precipitate a collapse? I know that one of the best things about this forum is that it accomodates a wide variety of viewpoints:  who is the best spokesperson for the "other side"?    

I have expressed a point of view for lower gold in a few years in this thread: http://www.peakprosperity.com/comment/36542#comment-36542

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Re: $400 gold?

There's has not been a post here in a while, but gold has certainly moved up from the $900 to $1000 range in 2009 and seems to be settling into a $1000 to $1200 range.  That's a pretty big increase in just a year.

The pressures to sell off gold seem to be very weak right now as the Chinese and Indian governments and middle classes add new global citizens to the gold demand pool.

It's hard for me to believe that gold will move back down to the $900 to $1000 range any time soon.

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Re: $400 gold?
ltlredwagon wrote:

I am familiar with all the reasons why there will be $2,000 - $3,000+ gold in the future.  Makes sense to me.  I'm on the gold/silver bandwagon, but I must say I always get a little worried when EVERYONE seems to be on the bandwagon and this is NOT an area in which I am an expert, even though I made what I think is a well-reasoned decision based on the data I have. 

Are there any respected persons on the other side?   Anyone saying, "You guys are all just freakin' out – most likely this and this and this will happen and gold will drop back down to the $300-400 range."    Is there any valid point of view which sees gold never reaching the spectacular highs all are expecting, but just settling down and/or drifting back?  Has anyone reasoned out a set of circumstances or series of events which would significantly stabilize/lower gold prices, or precipitate a collapse? I know that one of the best things about this forum is that it accomodates a wide variety of viewpoints:  who is the best spokesperson for the "other side"?    

Very good post. Forgive me for being in a rush this morning and not having the time to read any posts but this one before responding. Something I do but once a year.

One of my guiding principles is: Diversification is for people who don't know.

So do I worry about this. H*ll yes. And I get queezy when Soros makes a Greenspan statement (something that can be taken 9 ways to Sunday) about gold being in a bubble. When I found out the SOB doubled his holdings I felt a lot better.

Anything can happen.

Anything.

But my view of it is this thing is a 747 in a flat spin and the morons in the cockpit think they can recover by doing maneuvers that will exacerbate it.

Can gold go down? Yeah.

How much? Well just forget about the debt for a second. All the debt in the world can be leveraged as long as it can be serviced.

Right now the debt is NOT serviceable. They counterfeit the difference. Quantitative Easing. Sounds so freaking smart and so legal. BS.

Can they service these insane differences (and trust me if you add in the government sponsored (GSE)  debt the deficit is about 3.5 trillion worse than advertised) between what is taken in and what goes out without QE? Yes, they can service the deficit without QE.

How? Steal 2-7 trillion (depending on what they go after and whose estimates you listen to) of 401K's and IRA's, stuff them in a program called SSII shafting the average Joe and Jane and letting the next crook who takes office 20 years from now worry how they are going to pay yet another looted fund.

Argentina did it.

That will give them enough buyers to heavy hand the bond market and the dollar.

For a little while.

Would it fix anything? NO.

Look, I'm blessed being on an incredible email chain. I look forward to my email each and everyday because of it. Most of it is about resources and the environment. When economic articles land in my inbox I pay particular attention to them. The one I got originated from a guy whose Mom went to president's birthday parties (the guy is a CEO of someplace big.) It went to another billionaire and then to poor little me. I submitted it to the DD last night. It said it all. "Basically, it is over." Written by Munger. The email referred to Munger by first name. Think these 2 know Munger? 

It is over. We are broke. It can only be fixed after it craters. How long they can hold it off by stealing more money from us? Who the h*ll knows - or cares. Gold is my parachute.

Would I sell my gold? NO.

If it went to 200? NO.

And oh, by the way: NOT everyone is on board. I think it was Jeff Nealson or Jim Sinclair who did a piece on how much gold there is and how many people own it. The described it as a cubed tennis court's worth above ground. Gold is barbaric relic - and it is STILL here. Fiat currencies (3800 of them) have all come and gone.

That is little old me's take on it.

 

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Re: $400 gold?

"These automatically updated charts, offered in conjunction with the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, perform a twofold function for gold owners. First, they provide an opportunity to regularly monitor important statistical developments in real-time at a single, convenient link. Second, chosen from an immense supply of economic data, they isolate areas of particular interest to the gold owner, i.e. the national debt, money supply, inflation and unemployment numbers, securities held outright by the Federal Reserve, foreign-held debt, adjusted monetary base, etc. We hope you will visit frequently for updates. From time to time, we will add our comments. If you have an interest in this page, please do not forget to bookmark."

http://www.usagold.com/reference/monetary_data.html

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Re: $400 gold?

The one I got originated from a guy whose Mom went to president's birthday parties (the guy is a CEO of someplace big.) It went to another billionaire and then to poor little me. I submitted it to the DD last night. It said it all. "Basically, it is over." Written by Munger.

Davos

Where is this article? I can't find it

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redpill's picture
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Re: $400 gold?

Tip for the day.  Buy physical gold from a reliable source, in person, and in cash, so there is no record of the transaction and keep it somewhere safe.

Don't worry about what the price of gold does.  Give your gold to your children before you die.  They will need it to help survive in the mess we are creating far more than we need it now.

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Romans12.2
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Re: $400 gold?

Red pill....we are off to coin shop today. 

And my children's future is what is foremost on my mind.

Who the flip cares about the Supreme Court nominee? I feel like I'm playing a part in a suspense movie today starring evil Monarchy and idiot Peasants.  I'm not sure what part I'm playing yet....I don't know my lines other than "I'm buying gold."

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Re: $400 gold?

"Anyway, no drug, not even alcohol, causes the fundamental ills of society. If we’re looking for the source of our troubles, we shouldn’t test people for drugs, we should test them for stupidity, ignorance, greed and love of power.
" ~ P. J. O’Rourke

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