2009 - What is it going to look like?

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SkylightMT's picture
SkylightMT
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 30 2008
Posts: 125
2009 - What is it going to look like?

Anyone willing to venture what 2009 will look like? I know long term things aren't sustainable as they are, but I'm wondering about the short term.

Why are stocks going up, or staying pretty even, in spite of on-going bad news? Will the stock market maintain this weirdness in 2009, go up (and why), or majorly tank?

I can see that unemployment is obviously going to get much worse. How much worse; will Obama's plan offset enough of it to avoid rioting; what will the U.S. look like in the cities and out in the rural areas this year?

What will happen to imports/exports?

What will happen to the US dollar, vs. foreign currencies, and what will this mean?

What will happen to emerging economies?

Do you expect oil and gas to stay low, putting off the urgency for hybrids and flex fuel cars or other alternative energy sources for 2009, or will we see an oil crisis in 2009?

Everywhere I read I get conflicting information. I sure wish I could get a better idea of what its going to look like. Our family is at subsistance level right now, with DH having been laid off, and I wonder what to prioritize to purchase for 2009 since its going to be a struggle for us. Should I try to get laying hens and set up a coop or can that wait til 2010? We're already working on growing more food, preserving what we grow, and trying to permaculture... but we don't have much cash for things like a rain barrel system or a wood stove.  

pir8don's picture
pir8don
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 30 2008
Posts: 456
Re: 2009 - What is it going to look like?

Couple of bloggers make predictions and in my opinion are worth a look. Sometimes they even judge themselves on last years.

Jim Kunster - not to everyones taste

http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/

Sharon Astyk - great read and very earthy.

http://sharonastyk.com/

If you want to get it all into context then I recommend Daniel Quinn

Seems very likely that during 2009 we will experience collapse of much that has become familiar. 

The best I have read on that is  Dmitry Orlov and his five stages of collapse

http://www.countercurrents.org/orlov131108.htm

Happy reading

Don

________________________________________________________

Anyone can trade for what they want, only fools trade for what they need

castlewp's picture
castlewp
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Joined: Oct 7 2008
Posts: 304
Re: 2009 - What is it going to look like?

This is just a quick prediction from Michael Ruppert's blog.  Read "Crossing the Rubicon" it will change your life. Amazon 

So here's the way the first half of next year is shaping up. Mark my words here amigos. MIKE RUPPERT IS MAKING ANOTHER PREDICTION.

Dollar collapsing. Oil rising slowly in the first three months, after an OPEC production cut to try and hide Peak a little longer. Some temporary and illusory signs of a "maybe-sorta" recovery and bottom. Bailouts continuing. (Some like Citi might cry wolf again.) Bailout sending. Bigger banks failing. One of the big three failing (GM or Chrysler) plus maybe one more in Chapter 11. Foreclosures skyrocketing. Layoffs exploding. Then somewhere around June or July, an oil spike up past $100.bbl. That should pretty much finish things off. It's possible that by the end of 2009 the Government of the United States of America will declare itself insolvent.

Remember also that the Federal Reserve is a consortium of privately-owned banks and that it too can fail... It can probably declare bankruptcy which -- carried to its fullest extreme -- would mean that there would be no effective legal tender "for all debts public and private." Note the "public" part. They could possibly "public" in many ways.

How much do you think gold might be worth then? I don't know how to put a number on what gold could be worth if that happens.

Erik T.'s picture
Erik T.
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 5 2008
Posts: 1234
Re: 2009 - What is it going to look like?

The stock market is really hard to call. The problem is that there are strong fundamentals to push the market even lower than the November lows, but that is opposed by a Fed that is doing everything possible - responsible or otherwise - to

resuscitate

the debt-based economic system that caused the problem. I think anything could happen, but my guess is that the current bear market rally will continue to the point of perhaps 950 to 1000 on the S&P, then reverse to re-test the fall lows (775) or so.

Nouriel Roubini (www.rgemonitor.com) has been more right than anyone else so far, and says he expects to see the S&P finally bottom around 650 - 675. He predicts the recession to last at least till the end of 2009. The Financial Sense interviews I mentioned in another thread are another excellent source of perspective.

I'm considering short S&P plays, legging in at 950, 975 and 1000 if the bear market rally goes that far. But only in a small way. I think equities are the hardest market to predict this year.

My favoritie investment play is following Chris' advice to short the long bond (I'm currently short both 10-yr and 30-yr issues and will increase those positions if we re-trace their recent highs). Short-term interest rates are already at zero, and the curve can't get much flatter and stay that way. I do think there is considerable risk that government manipulation will push the long bond even higher, but I'm planning to weather the storm and just double down my positions if that happens. There is just no way long-term interest rates can stay below 2.5% in the long term when the Fed is printing more money than ever in recorded history.

Shorting the DX (Dollar Index) is my next favorite play, but I'm waiting for it to hit 85 again to start legging in. I won't be surprised if it retraces its highs before ultimately collapsing.

I'm already long Crude Oil and will increase that position once I get more comfortable that the develering-driven crash in futures prices is over. The big sell off happened at the end of the month, telling me that last month, at least, a bunch of people were forced to liquidate speculative positions before contract expiration. I'm carefully watching what happens to crude prices as the January expiry approaches. Upward price pressure from the tension in Israel is definitely clouding the picture, making it hard to tell if the deleveraging is over or not.

I already have a considerable position in gold, and plan to increase it substantially, but am waiting to see what happens. We're at the top of a trading range now. Recent strength in the mining stocks may be signaling a breakout in the metal, but I'm not yet convinced of that. If we get back to 750 I'll considerably increase my position.

Erik

 

 

 

Bridgeboy's picture
Bridgeboy
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Joined: Jan 2 2009
Posts: 3
Re: 2009 - What is it going to look like?

Hi Guys, I just joined this site and this is my first post!

 

I only recently became aware of our collapsing economy and the concepts that Chris Martensen and other economists have been predicting; unfortunately, I became aware a little too late to save the majority of my life's saving Cry. However, I'm trying to do what I can now to try to salvage what I have left. I think the angles that Erik Townsend has described he is taking above are all very good strategies.

 

One other strategy I have taken is I have a considerable position in SRS, which a double-inverse short of the daily US Real estate index trading. I'm not sure if my timing was as good as it could of been, as I got in at $68 per share, and it dropped to $50.5 on December 31st. I just hope the general public figures out that the real estate market is going to crash sooner rather than later so I don't have to sweat this trade out for very long. I feel confident that the collapse of the commercial real estate market is going to dwarf the collapse of what we have already seen in the home market as retail stores and other businesses start closing, going bankrupt, and defaulting on their leases in office buildings and strip malls, etc. The commercial real estate market is leveraged many times greater than home real estate. My fear of playing this SRS angle is that it may not be the best trade for holding over a long period of time, as it is more geared for day trading. But it could easily rally 25%, 50%, and even 150% or more over a period of days or weeks once these defaults start happening. the question is when will it start happening? 

 

Gerald Celente, who has an excellent track record of predicting trends, predicts it will start happening by this January, and really be apparent in February. I just wish I waited a little bit longer before buying SRS, but I'm in it now. Those interested should listen to what Gerald says in a series of radio talk show interviews that someone posted on Youtube, there are a number of different interviews by various talk show hosts if you search for Gerald Celenete, but here is a link to one of them (this is part 1 of many different parts):

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkPp7eHgqY8&feature=related

I'm sure I'm not posting anything new, and I'm sure many people on this forum are aware of Gerald Celente, but I haven't read anyone referencing him yet.

Good luck to everyone in the coming hard times we are all facing! Laughing

 

 

 

Bridgeboy's picture
Bridgeboy
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Jan 2 2009
Posts: 3
Re: 2009 - What is it going to look like?
pir8don wrote:

Couple of bloggers make predictions and in my opinion are worth a look. Sometimes they even judge themselves on last years.

Jim Kunster - not to everyones taste

http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/

Sharon Astyk - great read and very earthy.

http://sharonastyk.com/

If you want to get it all into context then I recommend Daniel Quinn

Seems very likely that during 2009 we will experience collapse of much that has become familiar. 

The best I have read on that is  Dmitry Orlov and his five stages of collapse

http://www.countercurrents.org/orlov131108.htm

Happy reading

Don

________________________________________________________

Anyone can trade for what they want, only fools trade for what they need

 Hi Don! Thanks for the links.

I can't seem to get the audio to work on Dmitri's site. What do you have to do to get the video/audio to run?

pir8don's picture
pir8don
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 30 2008
Posts: 456
Re: 2009 - What is it going to look like?

Hi Bridgeboy

Not real sure. I downloaded it then listened to it on my machine. Have you tried right clicking over the link?

Don

And welcome - hope you find good stuff and stay.

Checked out Gerald Celente; looks like he's on the money Wink as they say.

Thanks

Don

Damnthematrix's picture
Damnthematrix
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 10 2008
Posts: 3998
Re: 2009 - What is it going to look like?

Hi Skylight......  could we have a real name?

There's one thing you can bank on, anyone making a prediction at this stage will almost certainly get it wrong! 

SkylightMT wrote:

Anyone willing to venture what 2009 will look like? I know long term things aren't sustainable as they are, but I'm wondering about the short term.

Why are stocks going up, or staying pretty even, in spite of on-going bad news? Will the stock market maintain this weirdness in 2009, go up (and why), or majorly tank?

I can see that unemployment is obviously going to get much worse. How much worse; will Obama's plan offset enough of it to avoid rioting; what will the U.S. look like in the cities and out in the rural areas this year?

What will happen to imports/exports?

What will happen to the US dollar, vs. foreign currencies, and what will this mean?

What will happen to emerging economies?

Do ANY of those things really matter...?

SkylightMT wrote:

Do you expect oil and gas to stay low, putting off the urgency for hybrids and flex fuel cars or other alternative energy sources for 2009, or will we see an oil crisis in 2009?

Fossil Fuels cannot stay this low for too much longer.  Or they might.  If they do, then expect fuel shortages, because post PO oil costs big time to extract, and at under forty bucks, it's not worth drilling for.  So if you want more, you'll have to pay for it, through the nose.  The timing of shortages/price rises is anybody's guess, certainly not mine.... 

SkylightMT wrote:

Everywhere I read I get conflicting information. I sure wish I could get a better idea of what its going to look like. Our family is at subsistance level right now, with DH having been laid off, and I wonder what to prioritize to purchase for 2009 since its going to be a struggle for us. Should I try to get laying hens and set up a coop or can that wait til 2010? We're already working on growing more food, preserving what we grow, and trying to permaculture... but we don't have much cash for things like a rain barrel system or a wood stove.

I find this confusing...  Are you on land able to produce food?  Exactly what do you mean with "subsistence"?

If you are contemplating going to the Permaculture way, then absolutely get chickens NOW!  A coop doesn't have to cost much, if you live somewhere cold, you can make one out of salvaged polystyrene boxes filled with hay for insulation and a salvaged tin roof.... 

If DH has been laid off, do you need a car?  Selling your car for whatever you can get for it could get you started with a woodstove on some haybales to start a garden that works properly....

You should see if there is a local PC group in your area (where are you?) and try to network with people who know how to do things...  that's how we started.

Maybe you should switch to this thread  http://www.peakprosperity.com/forum/collapse-survival-should-we-move-and...

Good luck

Mike 

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