Bitcoin Bloodbath

29 posts / 0 new
Last post
Adam Taggart's picture
Adam Taggart
Status: Peak Prosperity Co-founder (Online)
Joined: May 26 2009
Posts: 3214
Bitcoin Bloodbath

Today, Bitcoin suddently and violently dropped below its longtime $6k support level, punching decisively into the mid-$5,000s.

The drop doesn't appear due to one single factor, though recent concerns around a hostile coup of Bitcoin Cash's architecture strategy may well be spooking holders. 

Bitcoin hasn't been this low since Oct 2017, as it ran up to its all-time high/blow-off top in December that year.

Technically, the next support level looks like it's down around $4k.

Meanwhile, the entire crypto complex is currently suffering the same fate (or worse) as Bitcoin:

New_Life's picture
New_Life
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 18 2011
Posts: 396
Declining volume and interest

"The drop doesn't appear due to one single factor"

Likely to be general lack of interest in an overpriced asset and failure of dodgy manipulation to keep propping up the price with fake unstable Tether.

I still think it's very closely following the bubble burst of Silver in 2011-2013.

Would not be surprised to see under $5k. And $4k not impossible, but may take a few weeks/months to get there.

Alts can still be fun to play for scalps, especially the ones still generating enough speculative interest...

pat the rat's picture
pat the rat
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 1 2011
Posts: 125
max loss

I got out of bit coin on december,28 of 2017 made some money on it.What I don't know is what will be maximun loss,80%, 90% or higher? Remember  bitcoin has to go up as high as it comes down in order to be a spike. Now the hard part is trying find the bottom?   

New_Life's picture
New_Life
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 18 2011
Posts: 396
Retracement

For retracements from High & Lows, Fibonacci is your friend. Well worth a Google if you want to learn.

Pair that with historical price action on Daily/Weekly closes & VPVR to give areas of support.

BTC is currently in a void, a gap of price action in the pump up from 4.9k to 5.4k back in Autumn of 2017.

4.6, 4.2 and 3k should give some pushback if this winter cold snap continues to bite further.

ps Happy Thanksgiving to you folks.

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 5694
5000 coming up

The bitcoin rescue from 4 days ago didn't stick.  Looks like your $5000 is coming up soon.  Maybe we'll see another rescue there too.

skipr's picture
skipr
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Jan 9 2016
Posts: 168
3K???

My financial advisor is not a fan of cryptos.  A few months ago he said that he wouldn't be surprised to see a $3k BTC.  I'm starting to agree with him.

I started playing with the ETH tokens and made a pretty good profit this last month.  I then felt nervous and moved them all into the TUSD stable coin.  A few days later I felt like I was being paranoid and moved them back into the tokens on Nov 14th.  I'm now down 50%.  I guess I didn't learn a thing from 2017.

New_Life's picture
New_Life
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 18 2011
Posts: 396
May get a bounce here 5115, 15:50UTC.

Couple of low level layered bull divergences in play, let's see.

New_Life's picture
New_Life
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 18 2011
Posts: 396
very fugly, sub $5k

that bull divergence trend I saw forming, broke, hard.

now at 4900 lurking just below at a daily support area, next major support 4600ish

surely we are due a relief bounce at some point.

Skipr - feel your pain, now I know what to see, I'll post when I see another mini alt season kicking off like I did on Sept17th, predicting October could be a rally for them, we certainly had some nice gains in key alts after they had double bottomed from June, there's still a couple of strong performers that I'm keen to get back in once the dust settles..

And yes $3k is certainly a possibilty in the coming weeks, months, year.  By my reckoning that would be a massive 0.88 fib retracement from a low point of the run up to the ATH.

New_Life's picture
New_Life
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 18 2011
Posts: 396
some alts taking off today...

Not naming names, but seen elsewhere certain privacy coins could have a good period

BTC also is trying a higher timeframe stretched bullish divergence with a inverse H&S trying to form, but still lots of bearish pressure... sideways and slightly bullish would suit alts

New_Life's picture
New_Life
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 18 2011
Posts: 396
BTC bubble put into context

I've said it before...

What would BTC price have been in 2017 without Tether, what will it be in 2019 without as much manipulation? (US Gov are watching exchanges much more closely)

We are currently under 2x weekly closes of 3.6k

Next major support areas are 2.8-3 2k which is close to the AVG BTC mining costs of Hut8, a well known US miner that I've referenced previously.

New_Life's picture
New_Life
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 18 2011
Posts: 396
BTC bubble lift off early 2017 + $3Billion of Tether

New_Life's picture
New_Life
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 18 2011
Posts: 396
$50MM of tether

$50MM of tether moved to the exchange owned by the same people behind USDT 4hours ago

Yep looks like they are still "at it"...

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 5694
avg mining costs

I do not think "average mining costs" provide any sort of support level.

If people don't want to own gold, for instance, if everyone suddenly decided that it is useless, then it doesn't matter that gold costs $1000/oz to mine.  Price for all the above-ground gold will plummet to a penny, and the gold miners will all stop their mining operations.

Same thing here.

Support levels are about people willing to step up and buy at that price point.  That's it.  Miners aren't buyers - they are sellers.  Neither are whales - they've already bought, and all they can do is promote, and/or sell.

"Dollar whales" (i.e. rich people), dumb money, and Tether are the potential buyers.    Where and how much they decide to buy will determine if and when the plunge stops.

 

 

New_Life's picture
New_Life
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 18 2011
Posts: 396
Completely agree

I wasn't suggesting that production costs = bottom

Indeed BTC has gone below such levels previously

I fully expect some miners to go out of business, many have already ceased operations

The main reason people are interested in BTC is because they believe in their expectation that it goes up over time...

 

Couple of indicators of interest to you Dave, Weekly 200EMA and monthly 55EMA

New_Life's picture
New_Life
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 18 2011
Posts: 396
ETH became a double digit sh1tcoin

Coinbase had ETH at < $100 over the weekend, so it looks like one of that "Industry Insider's" predictions (Arthur Hayes) came true, his other one was that BTC would hit $50k by year end, yes really, I posted his CNBC interview making such unbelievable predictions back in the summer.

cmartenson's picture
cmartenson
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 7 2007
Posts: 5979
BTC mining costs
davefairtex wrote:

I do not think "average mining costs" provide any sort of support level.

If people don't want to own gold, for instance, if everyone suddenly decided that it is useless, then it doesn't matter that gold costs $1000/oz to mine.  Price for all the above-ground gold will plummet to a penny, and the gold miners will all stop their mining operations.

Same thing here.

The difference being that without miners BTC that is 'above ground' has limited to no value since the transactions cannot be processed as quickly or at all (if all the miiners throw in the towel).

I hear that the mining costs are adjustable for BTC somehow, but am clueless as to the actual mechanisms for de-tuning the hash to make it easier...so I don't know if those adjustments can be done fast enough or large enough to keep up with such a rapidly declining market.

That said, I don't see how the avg mining costs for BTC provide anything other than a useful way to guage if BTC itself is losing or gaining utility under the theory that if enough miners go dark BTC loses utility with every mining rig that is turned off.

Or do I have this all wrong?

cmartenson's picture
cmartenson
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 7 2007
Posts: 5979
An expensive buy
New_Life wrote:

$50MM of tether moved to the exchange owned by the same people behind USDT 4hours ago

Yep looks like they are still "at it"...

Well, I know that Tethers cost their operators zero, but it seems like that $50M was a tad expensive.

In the past a big Tether buy would last weeks or many days.  This one?  Got digested and burped out in 24 hours.

So the 'expense' here was showing everybody just how little legitimate buying actualyl exists?

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 5694
USDT grants

Looking on coinmarketcap, I see that USDT outstanding has plummeted in recent weeks.  This plunge in Tether outtsanding (which might be compared to quantitative tightening) preceded the current bitcoin plunge by about 3-4 weeks.  The drop in tether was about $900 million dollars.  So any recent pop of $50 million was dwarfed by the overall drop.

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/

It appears that someone - maybe a lot of someones - were cashing in Tether for USD in the weeks before the latest 40% drop in bitcoin price.  The timing is curious.  Did one cause the other?   Were the insider rats deserting the sinking ship in advance?

 

New_Life's picture
New_Life
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 18 2011
Posts: 396
When to HODL

Just a reminder... (originally shared back in March)

 

Worth noting with BTC at 3.3k, we have a weekly close just beneath us for support and a (weak) Daily Bullish Divergence and Shorts nearing ATHs, so a minor  rebound may be possible, but the bearish pressure is relentless, sub $3k by Xmas a real possibility, $2k not off the table either, as for alts, ETH = $88, and the small caps are being slaughtered, some are down >90% / USD since being publically recommended on here back in April.

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 5694
HODL

So in this new definition, HODL really means "buy low, sell high."  Truly a new paradigm.  The "bitcoin $100k" predictions are looking more than a little silly right now.

I have no prognostication for where bitcoin goes next.  In the laast 12 months, "lower" has been a pretty good bet, and that will continue to be a good bet, right up until it isn't.

I'm not expecting a V-bottom for bitcoin.  If we assume it will replay history, bitcoin still needs to track sideways for a time before it can rally again.  The Tether gang probably tried to speed this process up by keeping bitcoin > 6000, but my sense is, the selling pressure from all that disappointed dumb money ended up being too much for even fraud to overcome.

Probably a fair number of 1080 ti GPUs for sale out there...only slightly used in a mining rig...used 24/7 for the past year or two...

 

Snydeman's picture
Snydeman
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 6 2013
Posts: 598
davefairtex wrote:So in
davefairtex wrote:

So in this new definition, HODL really means "buy low, sell high."  Truly a new paradigm. 

*in his best yoda voice*

Sense sarcasm, I do.

 

On another note, I specifically posted back last November (2017) on my Facebook feed with some general advice on investing as it related to cryptocurrency, and was fleeced by the Bitcoin Fanboi Club among my Facebook "friends;" fanbois who were strangely silent when I posted again, a year later, essentially saying "I told you so."

 

Funny how the dogmatic adherents to a faith are never as chatty or confident when their god fails them. I note the absence of certain voices on this topic even here on PP. Strange, that.

New_Life's picture
New_Life
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 18 2011
Posts: 396
HODL means HODL

That's not a new definition of HODL.

HODL still means exactly what it always has.

I shared the graphic here back in March, IIRC it's from an experienced Technical Analyst trader that was advising "when to HODL".

ie choose a good entry price based on TA (or even fundamentals for more sound markets) and then ride up ignoring short term noise until the Price Action tells you otherwise by breaking the uptrend.  It's akin to staying in the stock markets for the last couple of years until this Summer/Autumn.  Then wait for another good entry point at the start of the next bounce/uptrend.

Same applies to the Gold and Silver bubbles we've had this last decade.

"The trend is your friend, until the end."

"Price is what you pay, value is what you get"

New_Life's picture
New_Life
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 18 2011
Posts: 396
Shorting is becoming a meme..

Again the same tongue in cheek humour goes in reverse, lots of FOMO shorts right now, the savage relief bounce wicks on many unregulated exchanges will vapourise their positions...

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 5694
meaning for HODL

Yeah, so HODL, to me, just meant "hold regardless of anything, bitcoin is going to infinity."

Now, after the 83% correction, HODL has become "well of course you should sell once the trend changes."

Perhaps HODL is in the eye of the beholder.

Does anyone else here think that HODL meant "sell the top?"  This is the very first time I'm hearing this particular definition.  I mean, it makes sense to me, but that's not how I saw the term being used.

A true HODLer will have ridden ETH from $50, to $1400, back down to $80.  Quite the ride.  That's still a 60% gain, which is better than a poke in the eye to be sure.

And who knows.  ETH may go to $20k any day now.

HODL!

 

New_Life's picture
New_Life
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 18 2011
Posts: 396
What HODL has always meant to the devout

Good grief, Im obviously not explaining this well... :-)

The point was that the TA Trader graphic (that I shared back in March, 3rd time Ive said that) was saying the Crypto believers were naive in their belief of HODL.

The chart graphic is a sideways tickle at that overly simplistic investment "strategy" ie blindly buy at whatever price your Crypto leader tells you to and then hold on for dear life regardless until an ATH and there's no more BTC to mine and it's a $1MM+

So the original Crypto definition of HODL has not changed, the graphic was poking fun at the Crypto believers definition and suggesting a trading strategy instead. Two separate things no need to conflate them.

Apologies if my attempt at humour misfired with some here, it's always a poorly constructed gag if you have to explain it.

 

ps I see that relief bounce from the weekly close of 3225 to 3500 would of been painful for the FOMO shorts with a poor Risk Management strategy

 

davefairtex's picture
davefairtex
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 3 2008
Posts: 5694
very good

Haha ok very good then.  I think one might consider bracketing humor-intended items in bitcoin-land with some sort of warning around them, especially for the feeble-minded people like me.

Or maybe I was just humor-impaired yesterday.  :)

Snydeman's picture
Snydeman
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 6 2013
Posts: 598
We will..

We will forever have these issues until a sarcasm font is created. I'm also in favor of a snarky font, tongue-in-cheek font, and you've-got-to-be-fucking-kidding-me font.

 

/sarcasm font: I dream of a better font world.

New_Life's picture
New_Life
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 18 2011
Posts: 396
Context is often lost on the internet

And between continents.... :-)

DS, lovin your font idea, gave me a smile, nice one.

New_Life's picture
New_Life
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 18 2011
Posts: 396
Industry Insider tired of being asked for forecasts
Tom Lee (who had originally predicted $25k by EOY) is tired of making BTC forecasts..
 
Funny that...
 
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/13/wall-streets-bitcoin-bull-tom-lee-we-are-tired-of-people-asking-us-about-target-prices.html
 
Even as recently as Oct he was saying $25k by EOY was on the table, sobering lesson that a so called expert taking peoples money can be so wrong.  (He previously worked as the chief equity strategist at J.P. Morgan Chase.)
 
I wonder how his Fundstrat customers are feeling..
 
https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/fundstrats-thomas-lee-says-25000-btc-price-still-viable-in-bitcoins-year-long-bear-market/
 
Interesting the first article refers to BTC being below the Daily 200MA remains bearish.
 
However, with BTC @ $3.2k, the weekly 200MA and Monthly 50MA below us are of more interest to me right now...

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Login or Register to post comments