Peak Oil and Geopolitical Futures "Deep Dive" today on Oil Prices

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Patrick Whatley's picture
Patrick Whatley
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Jan 11 2016
Posts: 2
Peak Oil and Geopolitical Futures "Deep Dive" today on Oil Prices

Hi,  I am a subscriber to George Friedman's Geopolitical Futures.  In one of their "Deep Dives" today they talked about oil.  Below is a paragraph from that article:

"... In the meantime, the United States is likely to become a net energy exporter in 2017, according to some estimates from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. This is no small development; energy independence has been a strategic objective of Washington’s for some time. Shale oil has given it the means to achieve its goal."

That seem counter to what I read and hear at Peak Prosperity.  Any thoughts?

Thanks

Patrick

cmartenson's picture
cmartenson
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 7 2007
Posts: 5392
Thoughts on "net energy exporter"

Yes.

Whenever I hear anyone, but especially a think tank, talk of the US being a "net energy exporter" I know I am listening to pure talking point propaganda.

The US still imports between 4 and 5 million barrels of oil a day (mbd).  

Here's the data:  https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTNTUS2&f=M

There's no credible analysis of which I am aware which has the US uncreasing its oil production above current levels by an additional 5 mbd.

What the spin-meisters are doing is adding up ALL sources of energy - coal, oil, gas, hydro, wind and solar - and then counting the entire mass as if it were one thing, and noting that the US is producing more energy than it can use temporarily.  If some of this gets exported, then the US is counted as a 'net energy exporter.'

While this is not a bad thing, as importing nations end up bleeding revenue to the world, by definition, it is also wildly misleading to claim that exporting coal somehow implies we are free from importing oil.

 

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