Silver Investsments

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timsweet2200's picture
timsweet2200
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 5 2017
Posts: 1
Silver Investsments

I'm consistently hearing that silver will rise to $200 and should be part of my investment.   My research doesn't see where that is even close to being a reality.  30 years shows an oz has only been as high as $40.   

Is this just hype to sell more silver or some extremely over optimistic view of the future - perhaps in the year 2075?

Thanks

Tim 

MJB's picture
MJB
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Jan 5 2016
Posts: 117
My Portfolio

I'd say it depends how old you are :-) I'm fairly young and hope to see the end of the paper manipulation.. Those people that say it will rise, will be correct... all in good time.

If you want some great factual reading I'd suggest The Silver Manifesto by David Morgan. He breaks down the physical market nicely.. He convinced me to get in.

skipr's picture
skipr
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Jan 9 2016
Posts: 66
My Portfolio

Until recently the precious metals plud crypto portion of my portfolio was heavily weighted towards the metals. Then came the crypto explosion. The present dollar amount of my in-my-hand metals is now about equal to that of my cryptos.

MJB's picture
MJB
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Jan 5 2016
Posts: 117
Same boat skipr...

Same boat skipr...

skipr's picture
skipr
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Jan 9 2016
Posts: 66
above-ground silver

The book Gold Wars by Kelly Mitchell claims that the amount/weight of above-ground silver is actually less that that of gold since industry has consumed most of it and what has been consumed is not recoverable. If true, silver's price must be heavily manipulated down or the electronics industry would collapse. I wonder if the price will remain low, even after SHTF. If the price goes way up the demand for electronics would go down, which would push silver's price back down. Am I missing something? I slept though my college economics courses.

rhare's picture
rhare
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Mar 30 2009
Posts: 1323
Such a dilute amount
skipr wrote:

If the price goes way up the demand for electronics would go down, which would push silver's price back down. Am I missing something? I slept though my college economics courses.

It would take a very serious price increase to have a large impact on electronics, probably at least 2 orders of magnitude.  For instance, according to this article, the EPA says there is 772 lbs of silver in every 1 million cell phones.  So that means every cell phone has:

(772 lbs *  453.592 grams) / 1,000,000 = .35g / phone

So every cell phone at todays spot price ($0.56/g) has $0.20 of silver.  Say silver went up 100x, would a iphone price change from $650 to $670 really collapse the industry?  

You also have to consider that as the price rises, it then becomes more economical to find alternatives or find ways to reduce the amount that might not have been reasonable to do at the lower price.  For a lot of other products that use silver, such as those odor reducing tennis shoes, the quantity is even smaller, so it would take a really huge price change to reduce demand.

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