10 year outlook - Opinions, predictions?

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rowmat's picture
rowmat
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10 year outlook - Opinions, predictions?

I won't be surprised if this eventually winds up in the ‘CT’ section but my plea is that it doesn't.
I feel this thread should to be seen and accessed from the front page as threads that wind up in the ‘CT ‘section generally rapidly extinguish as very few potential new posters ever discover them.

I realise the’ Crash Course’ gives a very considered breakdown about what the future could hold for all of us.
However what I want to hear are people's own opinions based on their personal thoughts and circumstances.

The emphasis here is on 'beliefs, opinions and predictions'... which of course aren't facts... yet!

I know some may be tempted to bring up the subject of their belief in the second coming of a religious figure or, visitations of beings from other worlds etc... but we now have to follows the rules.

So let’s just stick to the possible terrestrial events.

What does everyone feel that the next 10 years hold in store say up until 2020?
If you wish to include a time-line then feel free to do so.

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ReginaF
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Re: 10 year outlook - Opinions, predictions?

Hi Rowmat,

thank you for starting the discussion!

I think (believe), that my life in ten years will resemble a lot my life as a child in the 50ths in postwar Germany:

- Housing: We used to live with 3 Persons in a little home of roundabout 40 square meters (400 squarefeet) surrounded by a big garden. There was a living room incl. kitchen, which was the only room heated by a woodstove. Our sleeping rooms were very small, just a bed and a nightstand and some hangers in it and in the winter pretty cold, sometimes there would be ice-flowers on the inside of the windows. We slept with warm flannel shirts, big woolen socks, and a really puffy big duvet and a hot-water-bottles.
In 2020, i predict the same, exept the ice-flowers on the windows, because my little house was a lot better insulatet.

- Food: Most of the food we eat came from our own garden (including rabbits for meat and chicken) and by exchange with the neighboors. Some we gained by harvesting from the forrest (blueberrys, blackberrys, ) or the ways between the fields (elderberrys, nettles) or by searching on the fields after the original harvest for wheat, potatos, strawberrys (it was allowed by the farmers). In the wintertime we had a lot of cannend or dried foot. We only bought wheat, milk, cheese (1 sort) and butter. We had other eating habits than today. In the morning, we eat a sort of porrige, for lunch we had mostly vegetables with an egg, in the afternoon bread with marmelade and in the evening bread with cheese. Only on sundays we had meet, mostly from our own animals. Food was prepared on the woodstove.
In 2020, I predict the same, exept that we know had a solar oven and wont no longer searching on the emptied fields. And we will more harvest from a wider range wild-edibles.

- Hygiene: We had a compost toilet outside our house. Washing in the morning and evening with warm water from the woodstove in the winter and cold water in the summer with a washcloth. Once a week we had a bath. There were only soap, a little bit of lotion my mother was proud of for her face, toothpaste and tothbrusches and powder for deodorant. I loved it, when we had shampoo to wash our hair once a week (soap didnt work so good).
In 2020, the same - with exerpt (I hope so), that I had regulary some sort of lotion for my face and with the big exeption, that we now had a solar water heater, which works very vell from march to november, so that we could have short daily showers in that time.

- Transportation: First, my father has a motorbike and after a view years we were one of the very few people, who had a car (lloyd 400, resembles a bit the new tata nano). My mother and I used to bike a lot or walk smaller distances of 3-5 miles, mostly per day.For school, i used to walk (2 miles) or later bike (5 miles) and only, when the weather was very ugly I used the bus (it was expensive).
In 2020: the same, with the exeption, that I would have than a electric bike.

- Shopping: There were a lot of little shops (butcher, chemist, grocery, hardware) in walking distance from our home in this little town of 2.000 inhabitants. The other goods (shoes, clothes, bigger things for the garden) we used to buy in the next town twice a year.
In 2020: Those little shops do not longer exist. I changed to have delivery from our local biological farmer and I think, I have to buy other things in a bigger town, and I think we are with neigbours will visit together for shopping once or twice a month.

- Clothes: We had very few clothes, outwear them, had a lot of "down hands" , sewing and knitting our own clothes,  and mostly repairing what we had until we could no longer use is, than it was "recycled" to other uses. There were one set of clothes "for good occassions & sundays".
2020: exactly the same.

- Laundry: We change our clothes a lot depend on what we do - working in the garden = very old garden clothes, sitting in the living room = some old clothes, going to school or job = the better ones and so on. After we changed it, we used to hang it in the air for "air laundry" and only if it was dirty (exept kitchen towels, towels and washclothes, which were "cooked" in a big pot on the stove).
2020: I hope from heart, that there will be a nice innovative kind of "Washing machine by hand" , like the pressure washer from lehmans http://www.lehmans.com/store/Home_Goods___Laundry___Washing___Pressure_Handwasher_br_USA_made___23305?Args=

- Leisure time: There was no such thing like leisure in the sense we use now. No TV. Saturday evening we are hearing "radio drama". There was handy work, knitting and repairing. On sundays in the summer we walk and made picknicks and later, as we had a car, used to drive 2-3 times in the summer to the seashore, which was about 30 miles away. In the night, we read books from the local library. On holidays (especially easter and sometimes cristmas), we visited realtives or relatives visited us.
 

- Work: My parents used to work for 48 h/week (6 days a week) for money as in farming/food relatet business foundet by the farming cooperative in our region - I can't find a translation (Controlled Milk for bacteria, supervising the breeding of cows). Sometimes my father had an aditional job for a few hours at an dairy farm or helping with the cows and my mother used to do the bookkeeping for some farmers. I earned money as a child by helping harvesting strawberrys & tobacco. My parents and I worked a lot - and had very little money. And there were a lot of subsistenz-work, working hours are from 5 in the morning to 9 o'clock in the evening, only sundays were free of work. 2020: I think, it would be the same - working in a lot of of hours in different jobs - handwork as well as "brainwork". We would have had a lot of skills, to gain a sufficient income.

So, now I have to stop to prepare lunch. But I'm very interested to hear from others, what the believe to happen in 2020 - especially in the field of paied work!

Thank you!

Best greetings

Regina

 

 

 

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Re: 10 year outlook - Opinions, predictions?

sorry, some of my memory came back a bit slowly

food: for lunch we had every day potatoes. And in the wintertime hotpots with beans, peas and so on. For dinner we ate a lot of "sweet soups", i.e. milk soup with noodles, fruit soups especially in wintertime, elderberry soup. For drinking mostly herbal tea, rosehip or peppermint. Only on sundays and when we had visitors my parents sometimes had a cup of coffee or black tea, for me it was coffee substitute from barley malt. Every sunday we had cake for the afternoon tea. On holidays my parents had for themselfes and for visitors homebrewn fruitwine from blackberries.
2020: I think it would be the same

medicine/illness: I can't remember any chemical treatment. We had a doctor in our villiage. If we had a cold, we had to stay in bed with a hot bottle and had to drink for example elk yog with fennel syrup and a lot of sage tea, thyme tea, lime tree blossom tea and (brrr...) hot elderberry. We had to gargle with salt-water. And breathing under a big towel hot water with chamomille. And the neck and breest in swine-larg and some warm clothes around it. When we had problems with the stomach we had to drink a lot of chamomille and eat "zwieback" (rusk?).
2020: I think we had for ordinary illness a lot of what I experienced in my childhood. And in 2020 - as now - we had a lot better Information about herbal remedies.

presents: For birthday present for relatives and friends we often brought with us homemade cookies, marmelade and flowers, somtimes vine and handmade items as mittens or a shawl. When we bougth something, it was a better sort of soap (for example with rose flavour), coffee or shokolade and sometimes a book. Wrapping paper and bands were on "multi use" - ironing and then using it again and again or craft paper with our own printing with potatoes.
2020: can imagine, that it will be the same.

Best greetings
Regina

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Regina's story

Hi Regina,

I am not sure what the next 10 years will bring, parts of it may be as the story you shared.  If more thoughts come to mind, I hope you will share them as well.  I just wanted to thank you for painting such vibrant picture of your memories.

Cat

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Re: 10 year outlook - Opinions, predictions?

 As to what *exactly* will go down in the next decade, and when *exactly* those things will happen, I feel is too fraught with oodles of variables to predict precisely.

General things I expect to see:

--  short term rebound of economy (prolly the last gasp of Biz As We Knew It)

-- subsequent "Fer Reals" collapse of same

-- Obama a 1-termer, replaced by "populist" authority figure[head], further erosion of Constitutional liberties, general public less afraid of that than of the swiftly changing world ("security > liberty / deserve neither")

-- food shortages

-- energy shortages (oil/gas/electricity)

-- infrastructure degradation

-- yuge numbers of people heading back to land (varying degrees of success -- a new sharecropper/serfdom?)

-- a new ethic of self-reliance/simplicity/share-and-share-alike within tight-knit communities (after a likely interval of "I got mines who the heck are you?")

-- a new normal:  living on 50% of the current energy inputs we enjoy, probable devolution of power to state/local level, it's what you can make/grow/do and not what you earn (desk jobs will for most be a [bad] memory), social networks provide real "wealth", DIY is king

Less obvious (and more immediately important to me) is exactly how we get from here to there.  Any major disruption to the economy (drop in food supply, currency crisis, attempt to use a war to jumpstart economy, social unrest, 9/11 Mark II, etc.) will probably lead to a time of great privation and upheaval as the safety net is so full of holes (cf Katrina) that it won't be able to catch those that are falling in any meaningful way.  Time is short as the current crisis has not been used as an impetus to start changing things in a way that can make for a soft landing, IMO.  (Fiddler, thy name is Nero!)  So I would imagine that there will be downward shocks followed by plateaus, each shock shrinking the possibilities for the masses a bit (or a lot) until the middle class is ground into dust.

What do I see for myself in 10 years?  Being a super-genius (see: Wile E Coyote ) I will have (with the good help of CM.com and the fine, intelligent and good-looking community of posters thereon ) begun preparations after the first shock ('08-'09) and by '11 or so be living in community on a village-type level, raising/storing 75% of our own food, building our own shelters (no mortgage) and having off-grid capabilities to offset the increasingly erratic supply of electricity (think:  Baghdad '04).  We'll be doing active community outreach to educate the folks around us and to help them get self-reliant, too.  

But then, I've always been a glass-2/3s-full kinda guy.  And falling down the economic ladder is a fine thing when:  (a) the ladder is getting shortened whether you like it or not [or know it or not], and (b) stepping down on your own lets you choose your spot [the folks that cling until they're shaken loose will fall all the way down to a hard place].

Just one man's thoughts...

Viva -- Sager

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Re: 10 year outlook - Opinions, predictions?

Thanks, Cat!

 I really think that in the next 10 years we would go to have a lot less energy, less material possessions & other kinds of work - and that forecast reminds me on my childhood. 

I enjoyed writing & remembering - the life than was not so bad as it sounds, we had a lot of things and situations to enjoy and I remember lots of happy times! And often feel very greatful for the things we have. I remember very well the time, when my family bought this old and second hand car Llloyd 400 - ever when it rains in the evening we used to sit in the car saying to each other, what happy we are not to drive any longer in rain by by- or motorcycle! I never have feel deprived - maybe it was because most of the other children had no more material possessions than me. Sure, when they had, I feel jealous: My best friend had a kite that flew in the air! With mine, made very robust from my grandfather, I had to ran & ran & ran over the fields and it never made it in the air. But I think, those feelings were very natural. But now, I stop with those rememberings, feeling very old - while only now in my mid 50ths.

You are absolutely right - we dont know for exact, what the next ten years will be. What I fear and have yet no idea how to cope with is the challenge of mental coping with dire situations like violence (my parents especially my mother experienced this as she was a refugee from the the east and had various personal encounters with russian troups in worldwar II) or widespread pandemia or so. Maybe it helps to enjoy day by day and what you have & develop a strong spirituality. But - who knows.

Best greetings & have a nice weekend,

Regina 

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Re: Regina's story
cat233 wrote:

Hi Regina,

I am not sure what the next 10 years will bring, parts of it may be as the story you shared.  If more thoughts come to mind, I hope you will share them as well.  I just wanted to thank you for painting such vibrant picture of your memories.

Cat

Regina,

I also thank you for taking the time to compose such a detailed description.  I recognize some similarities from my childhood although I'm younger than you and grew up in the USA.  My grandparents were German, however, so there is some familiarity with your recollections from that persepctive.

We had more abundance in America than in post-war Germany but in our family we were still quite conservative and frugal in our living.  We had one car which my father took to work (he often worked 12 hour days or more) and we walked most every place in our town of 5,000 or took a bus to the next large town which was the county seat.  There were many small shops in our town which provided for our needs.  There was a bake shop one block over where my mother would send me for freshly baked bread.  A butcher shop was 5 blocks away.  We had milk delivered to our doorstep from a farm which was through the woods behind our house.  I would walk 1/2 a mile up the road from our house to buy freshly laid eggs from a chicken farm.  There was a vegetable farm across the street from the chicken farm where we would buy fresh produce in the summer.  Supermarket trips for other food and items would be once a week.  We'd pick berries from the woods behind us and gather apples and pears from remants of abandoned orchards and occasionally fish and hunt.  We also grew some vegetables in our garden.

There was an old timer who lived in our neighborhood who lived off the woods behind us during the Great Depression.  Deer were largely hunted our but he hunted and trapped small game such as rabbits, squirrels, and even ground hogs and shot birds such as ducks, pheasant, and quail.  In the waterways, he would net snapping turtles and gig frogs and gather crayfish and fresh water mussels.  He was an excellent hook-and-line fisherman but I suspect he wasn't above using nets or even firecrackers (ashcans, M80s, etc. with waterproof fuses) to obtain larger quantities of fish on the sly.  He gathered wild berries, fruits, nuts, seeds, and plants for food and herbs for medicinal purposes.  I took survival training years ago and my family is often amazed by what I can find just in my backyard and in the woods behind my house to eat and for medicinal purposes.  And the interesting thing is that wild foods are usually more nutritious and life energy filled than cultivated foods.

Your comment about the lard on the chest and neck brings back memories as well.  My grandmother would heat up goose grease and smear that on our chest and throat, cover it up with flannel, and put us into a bed heated with a hot water bottle.  We would inevitably wake up better.  My sister and I still marvel at how effective this remedy was.  Warm milk and honey was a nighttime sleep remedy (trytophan, calcium, simple carbs and heat are all sedative).  Mullein tea would be used as a decongestant.  I still find an elderberry extract (a commercial one called Sambucol) to be one of the most effective anti-virals for a cold or flu that I've ever found.

In summary, I think we could very easily find ourselves back in these simpler times.  The interesting thing is, I think most people were happier than.  Hopefully, people are coming to the realization that money and things don't make you happy.  I made my first million years ago and have more things than I ever imagined but truthfully, I'm no happier now than when I had next to nothing.  That's why I'm not necessarily pessimistic about what will be coming down.  It'll bring up back to what's really important. 

 

   

 

 

 

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Re: 10 year outlook - Opinions, predictions?

rowmat,

I remember reading years ago of a high level Chinese memorandum that was intercepted that said "an armed conflict with the US over the issue of Taiwan in inevitable by 2015."  A top hardliner Chinese general (their equivalent of our Curtis LeMay) was once quoted as saying, "We will bide our time until we can wreak our vengeance".  I think the Chinese will continue to grow in strength as we weaken.  They already have 2 trillion dollars (and growing) in reserves while we're heading to the poor house.  They have a motivated, intelligent, hard working, excellence focused, and highly nationalistic population that is seeking to regain China's past glory whereas our motivation (except for the almight dollar) seems to be withering, nationalistic spirit is fading, the work ethic has gone to hell, and stupidity seems to be valued as a virtue.  Their military and technology are steadily improving.  While less than 5% of our college students are entering engineering fields, 40% of their graduates are.  Hard physical science and engineering knowl-how determine both economic and military strength.  The math is obvious. 

I've long felt that once they've built up their military strength sufficiently (and have seen ours wane sufficiently), they would use fundamentalistic Islamic nations opposed to the West (and the US in particular) as a foil and have them engage us in conflicts on two fronts (which is already happening in Iraq and Afghanistan) until we are so depleted in military resources and public will that they could make a move on Taiwan with a high probability of success.  As I've stated previously, historically, major conflicts have followed economic crises by periods of approximately 10 years.  I think we will see that again.

I don't think there will be an sudden, precipitous, apocalyptic collapse but rather a steady grinding downward erosion marked by occasional, brief, optimistic (but falsely so) upward swings which will only be followed by further decline.  I think there will be further fractionation at all levels, with societal and geopolitically devolution.  Larger countries will come apart forming smaller countries.  Regions and states may come apart.  More small but weak poltical parties will emerge and there will be more infighting among those that already exist.  More class conflict will arise, the split between the haves and have-nots will grow, and the middle class will shrink. Corruption and injustices will grow despite increased attempts at tighter central control.  Citizens will attempt to do end runs around growing numbers of restrictive and constrictive regulations, seeking to circumvent authority and fly under the radar.  Infrastructure and institutions will continue to deteriorate.  Educational quality will degrade and health will continue to decline.  

Interestingly, rather than talking about green shoots and a change in the economy later this year and the next, the Fed governors are now saying that it may take 5-6 years for things to turn around.  My guess would be 10-20.  But the world will never be the same.  It never is.

On the bright side, I think there will be unprecedented spiritual revelations during this period (which is the whole purpose of the decline) ... but I won't go there.;-)

  

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Re: 10 year outlook - Opinions, predictions?

Regina,

Your story is quite amazing to me, a child of the 1980's. I believe that my generation (late 1970's/ early 1980's) saw the very end of the world you grew up in. Like many youngsters in my generation, I was raised by my grandparents, who were very old world.

I think you may have lived in the "golden age" of humanity.

My predictions are a bit more dire, for three reasons:
1. Loss of values and culture (in America)
2. Population density
3. Misuse of land

We've lost our curtesy and replaced it with blind aggression, disrespect and appathy, we've crammed too many people into too little space, and we've destroyed most of the ariable farm land in order to build Warehouses, Car Lots and McMansions.

The McMansions have zero useable land - quite literally, not enough for one family to make enough food for one month, and even if they could, most of them have no skills.

I'm prediciting:
-Economic Crisis (1-3 yrs)
-Depression "plus" unemployment (1-3 yrs)
-Famine on a Global Scale (2-5 yrs)
-Large scale violence, banditry and turf wars, massive interruption to government services, with special emphesis on partial abandonment of offices, responsibilities and infrastructural jobs (2-5yrs)
-Massive exodus of Suburban areas for either cities that can still import goods and services (food most importantly) or rural areas, where they can work for food. (6-8 yrs)
-The end of the American Empire (8-10yrs)

There might be advances that "improve" our ability to rebound, but none of them will correct the problem, which has switched from "development" to "maturity" over the last 6 months. The maturity cycle will take us through most of the bad stuff; the "2-10 year" blocks outlined above.

The following 20 years will be scraping a passible infrastructure back together.

Just my thoughts...

Aaron

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Re: 10 year outlook - Opinions, predictions?

China won't do anything stupid.

You think they have a market for cheap, plastic junk in Europe?
Their GDP would sink like a rock, and they'd be left holding whatever metals they (intelligently) bought, unless they could re-tool, and find a market for something none of us know we need.

I really doubt the Chinese will figure in in a destructive way.

Cheers,

Aaron

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Re: 10 year outlook - Opinions, predictions?

Aaron: 

?'s for you.

What makes China exempt from stupidity?

I have spoken with Mexicans living in this country who visit "home" and they complain they cannot find anything that isn't Made in China. I did some traveling in the NW the last 16 months, quite a bit of time in rural areas and asked a lot of questions.  It seems the asians have bought up large pieces of land (hundreds to thousands of acres), especially along the rivers.  Food production has been mentioned by some as a possible reason.  I don't begin to have a grasp of what all is going on, I can barely make sense out of what I see before me.  I miss SL and Joe2, they made sense to me.  I was sorry to see how "community" responded to JL's seeming period of difficulty.   Anyway, I appreciate your posts also.  Chin up, matey.  Life has its ups and downs.  Need things to look up?  Lie on your back and watch the birds, or clouds.  Kind regards.

Mallard

 

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Re: 10 year outlook - Opinions, predictions?

 

Aaron,

I also sincerely doubt China would do anything stupid, at least not intentionally.  But they are gradually moving away from Treasury securities and building inventories of all hard assets, not just metals.  The time will come when they are not tied to us financially.  They are doing this quietly and strategically but they are quite angry about what has transpired.

From a trade perspective, they not only are expanding their trade and resource supply alliances in Asia but also increasing their sphere of influence in Africa, South America, and even the Caribbean.  To think that there might not be conflicts with us pertaining to increasingly scarce natural resources, especially in our own hemisphere, is optimistic.

They have acknowledged growing difficulties with fresh water supplies (more so than us) and food could easily become any issue as well (also more so than us) given their history of famine and their enormous population as well as increasing desertification, decreasing arable land, increasing building sprawl, pollution, etc.  If they would get in a bind, internal pressures would not permit them to let their populace just sit there and die if there were resources elsewhere for the taking.  While this is a more remote scenario, it remains a possibility.

On the more realistic side, the selective abortion practices which have lead to a male/female imbalance are of far greater concern.  When there are more males than females of the percentage that is present, that leaves a very large number of testosterone pumping young males without partners.  Historically, the pressures from this situation wind up being directed either internally or externally.  The Chinese government will never allow those internal pressures to create civil unrest that would threaten the stability of their country.  The pressures will be directed outward to a foreign enemy.  In every case in history where this scenario has arisen, the outcome is war ... every single time ... without exception.

Also, China is no longer producing just plastic trinkets.  I went to the Detroit auto show two years ago when the first Chinese vehicles debuted in America.  They were decent vehicles, about on par quality wise with mid 1970s to mid 1980s American cars, at an extraordinarily low price in the 5K range.  They are beating us to the punch with the first commercially widely available electric vehicle.  In 10 years, their auto industry will match anyone's.  Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Cadillac, and other high tech manufacturers are essentially giving them the technology.  Witness the junky Japanese consumer goods that began saturating the American markets in the late 50s and early 60s and witness the transformation in Japanese quality and technology.  The Chinese will do the same, only quicker.

China has been shifting their military doctrine from a more defensive posture to one of force projection.  They've never been afraid to confront us as was amply evidenced in the Korean War.  In Vietnam, Chinese pilots flew against us and Chinese special forces were on the ground.  Their enmity towards us goes all the way back to the Boxer Rebellion.  While most of us are thinking about a guns and missiles war, they are already implementing an entirely different type of asymmetrical warfare.  "Unrestricted Warfare" is a primer in this approach but it goes far beyond that in sophistication.  

As I stated to rowmat, economic and military strength derive from scientific and engineering know-how.  In addition to the differences in our educational emphasis, the Chinese also have an intelligence organization that is better suited than ours for acquiring foreign technological secrets.  The highest level Russian military defector of all time recognized them as the greatest threat to world security in the generation to come.  The Mossad made a similar assessment years ago (although obviously, they have other more immediate security concerns of a different nature).

China considers Taiwan part of China and has no intention of not reabsorbing it at one point.  As the Chinese economy and military strengthens and ours weakens, as our attentions are directed towards internal issues and we are bled from multiple external sources of conflict around the world, they know their opportunity will come and they are patient.  They think long term and even have 50 and 100 year plans.  We barely anticipate tomorrow.

I've had a life long interest in all things Chinese (history, culture, philosophy, religion, strategy, medicine, martial arts, etc.), have talked to veterans who have fought them, have talked to someone who spent much time with the military in China in the 1930s, have a daughter who had a Chinese roomate for a year, a nephew who just married a Chinese scientist (and who has spent a great deal of time in China the past few years researching economic and financial issues), and i just, in fact, finished reading a comprehensive history of China.  I have a great deal of respect for them but I'm also wary.  Knowing what I know, I respectfully disagree with you.  If you read accounts of the period immediately preceding WW 2 in the Pacific, many Americans thought the Japanese wouldn't dare confront us.  They were wrong.   The Chinese aspire to regain their greatness.  Do you know of any empire in history that ever did so peacefully?

 

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Re: 10 year outlook - Opinions, predictions?

China doesn't have to do much at all but let Obama & Biden work their magic especially at those AARP meetings.

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Re: 10 year outlook - Opinions, predictions?
ao wrote:

 

Aaron,

I also sincerely doubt China would do anything stupid, at least not intentionally.  But they are gradually moving away from Treasury securities and building inventories of all hard assets, not just metals.  The time will come when they are not tied to us financially.  They are doing this quietly and strategically but they are quite angry about what has transpired.

While I defer to ao's deeper and wider knowledge of Things Chinese, I expect a general trend over the next decade or two will be that energy contraction will tend to put a downward pressure on global-scale conflict.  As energy costs rise precipitously, so will the cost of waging a modern war.  

That won't save Taiwan, which is as close to China as Cuba is to the US (closer, even).  But it could put a damper on global force projection -- one just wouldn't get enough EROI to make it worthwhile.  

And as things unravel in general, I expect the centralized power needed to create/sustain/control massive standing armies to unravel in tandem.  I expect we'd see a lot of local on-again/off-again brushfire warfare, but nothing like the sustained conflicts of WWII or the Korean/Vietnam wars.  One possible exception would be if China made a big move on the Middle East's oilfields.  But then they'd be going through Pakistan/Afghanistan/Tajik-Uzbek-Turkmenistan and as we are painfully learning, that's no cakewalk.

Just one man's opinion...zhi-xie.  (I did backpack through China about 3 months prior to Tiananmen...the phrase I heard most was "mei you" ["may-yo"]...or:  "No!" )

Viva -- Sager

JAG's picture
JAG
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 26 2008
Posts: 2492
Re: 10 year outlook - Opinions, predictions?

In regard to China, I think there is no doubt that they have been the "dumb money" of international trade, but perhaps that was just the role they had to play to get to the next level. Though it doesn't appear to me, from their current actions, that they have learned anything from their mistakes. 

Of course, this is literally "the pot calling the kettle black". I'm sure the English thought the same of us Americans at some point.

anarkst's picture
anarkst
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 1 2009
Posts: 121
Re: 10 year outlook - Opinions, predictions?

I would like to predict, with a fair degree of certainly, that in ten years it will be 2019.

A. M.'s picture
A. M.
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 22 2008
Posts: 2368
Re: 10 year outlook - Opinions, predictions?

Didn't you post the thread about time?
*puzzled look*

Anyway, sorry to sidetrack the thread with talk of China.
Especially after Spectrabil's excellent recount and forecast.

Cheers!

Aaron

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