Zero Chance for QE3?
…..you got back on the boards here. Where ya been? Good to see you back.
As fraudulent as we think government statistics are, I believe that things are a lot worse than even our parsed version imagines. The global banking tape worm is almost dead. Time to celebrate! Back to the future, hellow 18th century!
TreeBeard – if you need to prep for 18th century living – I recently came across Jas Townsend & Son for all your old world prepping needs. Why is it that I like this store? Shouldn’t I want an iphone5 rather than a dutch oven or salt pork pot?
…Jack Shaftoe’s response to General MacArthur in the ruins of Manila (near the end of Neal Stephenson’s “Cryptonomicon”), but this is a family website. Let’s just say I’ve been rolling with the punches and am now coming up for air…no worse for the wear.
Thanks for the link, nice site. My interest is mostly in the early 19th century actually, I see that as a parallel but not separate line of interest. If there is a newer scythe with a better snath, I’ll use it. But lets use permaculture techniques and stop plowing the soil, etc, I often think that if we had chosen a different path from that point, we could have evolved into a rational society. What I like about that period is that activities and implements of the time were sourced locally, hand made to some extent and life still related to the rhythms of the natural world.
To get back on topic, the fundemental numbers of the US economy are that we have only 20% our GDP related to industry and agriculture, sources of wealth. We can have another 20% of our economic activity tied up in spending that wealth. The other 60% of that is on overhang that we have to cover with profit on the 20% of the productive economy. That roughly correlates to the typical mark up on slaries to generate billable rates. So you are at 3:1 out of the gate. Add on top of that the inefficiency of indiustrial agriculture (1:10), so you now have humans walking around with 25,000 dailey calorie requirements, then add in long commutes in inefficient transportaiton systems, poorly insulated oversized housing, energy conversion loses (chemical to kinetic to electrical), and the cost of a bloated government which is mostly tied up in a global military empire. Any oil producing country that tries to get out of the dollar system needs to be quickly dispatched to keep the value of the dollar up (lybia, Iraq, afganistan and syria (pipelines), Iran) to site a recent few. So what do you have, the need for about a 50:1 EROEI from the energy sector to keep this mess afloat. We have not been there for a while.
Whether the fed buys short or long term bonds, gets eliminated, or we go to a gold standard, none of it changes the fundamentals, the description is not the thing described. The best we can hope for is an economic system that accurately describes the underlying economy so that we can act in and on the real economy. We have enough information now to act in the real economy already, what we are actually doing in our dailey lives and how we are spendng our money. Don’t buy gold, buy a domestic solar hot water system, buy seeds, hand tools, an education that gives real skills that allow you to produce some of real value in the real economy.