Will this lead to a Cold War with China, or China disintegrating itself?
In my opinion, this is all about either starting a new Cold War with China, or China disintegrating into many small, independent republics.
Why Trump didn’t play the bioweapon from China card? He would have gotten lots of votes in support, and the USA laws revolve around war preparedness so he would have gotten a lot of power from it.
Maybe that’s part of their plan but it’s meant for a later stage?
By the way, does anyone else feel like all this has been staged? Sometimes I feel as if I’m watching a weird movie, for which I had previously read the plot.
I’m willing to talk China, I’ve lived and worked here since 2015 and am currently in Beijing with plans on continuing to enjoy life here. I have a feeling our ‘starting points’ for entering the discussion are quite distant however. That’s not a problem though since I’m used to encountering that on Western social media, especially in the past year/year and a half.
First, what is the ‘this’ in your title? What are you referencing leading to a new cold war? My overall position about it is that capital C capital W Cold War, a la US vs Soviets, is not at all the way to conceptualize whatever would be going on going forward with China. If we’re talking cold in terms of it being some kind of effort by both sides for world hegemony but not ‘shooting’, that’s closer. I’ll say also that whether or not this competition is antagonistic is almost purely the US’s choice and doesn’t need to be.
It’s always like reading the tea leaves when assessing their side of things but I gather that for most Chinese, whether it’s society generally or policy makers, they still subscribe to trying to better their society through economic means primarily. This means a heavy heavy mutual reliance between US and China. This is the prime factor that makes it not at all like Soviets v US, where little to no economic ties existed. They would be focused on competing with the US, not so much against. Meaning that both boats would rise and strengthen each other. Actually, a state media cartoon expressed this as a metaphor. Two trees growing tall in the forest but actually their roots are interconnected so what benefits one benefits the other. I know this overall outlook isn’t a popular US take, but over here I think it fits the overall perspective (outside the minority of radical hawkish nationalists). Beyond the US picture, my sense is their efforts are less concerned about what the US is doing and more and more concerned with making economic inroads in developing countries such as in Africa and Central Asia (Belt and Road Project) that’ll pay off long-term.
On the notion of China disintegrating into separate countries, I’d say that this scenario is far more likely for this to happen in the US than in China. Not only is China’s geopolitical strategy tailored to the idea of protecting and bolstering every inch of their national sovereignty, they are also probably more socially cohesive than any time since their civil war ended. Understanding their side of this requires a broader historical view. If your starting point for thinking about modern China is Mao and the communists, well, your perspective is already inherently flawed and incomplete. At the very least you have to start their narrative in the mid 1800s with the start of their so-called ‘Century of Humiliation’ as the Qing disintegrated, the Republic was founded, WWII and Civil War happened, and eventually ended with unification under Mao. All the flaws and criticisms of Mao are well known and in spite of that a lot of it pales in comparison (in their minds) to the devastation and loss of pride throughout the Century of Humiliation. For modern Chinese, little of the CCP resembles the old Maoist type of system and really the middle ‘C’ should instead simply be the Chinese Country Party to better fit their agenda and outlook. Whether it’s society in general or policy makers, they’ll likely accept any number of mistakes, abuses of power, etc because trading the unifed stability for another period of chaos is unconscionable. But for the average Han Chinese, they look mostly at the positives. They’ve witnessed hundreds of millions in their country pulled out of poverty in basically a blink of an eye historically. Their support for their country isn’t a surprise at all. Furthermore, as problematic as the CCP is, the West should be careful what they wish for in prospects of replacing it. In many aspects the moderate CCP factions have dampered the more aggressive and problematic nationalist factions. The West definitely does not want those types having a sniff of power, no matter the form.
Why didn’t Trump play the China bioweapon card? Probably because apart from rumors and ‘sources say’ type of talk coming out of the intelligence establishment (who happen to have just a huge and long track record of truth, right?), there’s not much to support it. If this is about Chris’s videos with the possibility of Covid being lab-made, pay attention to how it wouldn’t just be China’s hand in the cookie jar. The gain of function research that would’ve possibly resulted in covid was going on in labs all over the world and the funding and programs were international. US had a stake and influence in that research, not just in China but in other countries. If say, there were an unintentional leak of the virus there would be egg all over the US’s face as well given the tight research ties. To be clear, if it wasn’t natural then it’s still a leap to go into ‘bioweapon’ theory territory. The list of viruses that’ve accidently escaped labs is a long one, human error is a much more likely story and proving otherwise places a large burden of proof on the accuser.
Also wondering who is the ‘they’ in “maybe that’s part of their plan…”
Staged? meh, certainly unprecedented and feels as significant of a year as any in history, but this is all following some plan?…meh, I’m not going to wade into that.
Correction we are already in a Cold War with China and have been for a long time.
If Biden is president it will end with China winning and Biden Inc being mega wealthy
China is a great country they do wonderful things for people. Just ask the people of Hong Kong . Or better yet ask the Tibetans
If you’re a Falun Gong practitioner sitting in a cell, or you’re in a re-education camp in Xinjiang, waiting to have your organs harvested, you probably don’t have a very favorable opinion of the CCP.
On the other hand, if you’re in the 1000 talents program, sitting in a lovely flat in Beijing being told you’re a genius, getting hundreds of thousands of USD in expense money every year – well, your attitude towards the CCP is probably more positive.
There are a large number of Westerners who have basically been bribed (slash romanced) by the CCP. They are very good at these influence operations.
So your view of the CCP depends entirely on your situation.
As for the forum topic – my imperfect understanding is that the Xi faction was very enthusiastic to get Biden into office, as they are already close friends with Hunter, as explained to us by Tony Bobulinski. The Jiang Zemin faction is not so happy with Xi’s “wolf warrior” foreign policy, and seem prefer a softer approach. They dropped off a bunch of disk drives with material on Hunter. Allegedly.
If the US sticks to its guns and stops the flow of chips, China as a tech exporter is going to be in serious trouble. How that resolves within the country between Xi and Jiang Zemin factions, I don’t know. Certainly, the fallout will not look good for Xi.
He has already been hinting about a “Long March” and/or a “difficult time.”
Will Biden continue this program? That is the key question. If he’s been bribed, then of course he won’t. If he hasn’t been bribed, then maybe he will.
The CCP isn’t so popular right now around the world for their deliberate virus export program. Blocking travel domestically, while allowing it internationally, out of Wuhan, was really a bridge too far. While it may have played well in their enthusiastically-calculated “Comprehensive National Power” math, where someone else’s misfortune ends up as a gain for you, they left the human factor out of the equation.
“Whoa. Not cool. I guess we really shouldn’t be so friendly with the zero-sum sociopaths in Beijing.”
This global diplomatic failure from the deliberate virus export – a clear choice that Xi made – has left Xi looking like a bit of a failure. Along with him gobbling up Hong Kong 27 years early – which directly and negatively affected elections in Taiwan. “Whoa. We don’t want to be Hong Kong.” I mean, who would?
The CCP is desperate to gobble up Taiwan too. Taiwan is a living, breathing example of how Chinese people can have a really prosperous society without being ruled by a repressive kleptocracy. Free speech, democracy, with Chinese characteristics. Taiwan shows everyone – including mainlanders – that the CCP is not necessary for prosperity. One might argue, the CCP stands in the way of it, by stealing far more than their fair share of the Chinese people’s productivity.
We will see how Biden approaches Taiwan. It will be interesting. Let’s hope for their sakes he hasn’t been bribed.
funfsinn14, has the CCP apologized for starving 70 million Chinese people to death? Are you even allowed to make such an affirmation over there? After doing that, of course you can “improve people’s lives” slowly over time and have many people believe the narrative that the improvement is thanks to them.
Taiwan is a living, breathing example of how Chinese people can have a really prosperous society without being ruled by a repressive kleptocracy. Free speech, democracy, with Chinese characteristics. Taiwan shows everyone – including mainlanders – that the CCP is not necessary for prosperity. One might argue, the CCP stands in the way of it, by stealing far more than their fair share of the Chinese people’s productivity.
When you live in China and are constantly exposed to CCP propaganda, every day, with limited outside information, you end up believing their false narrative. Hey, at least you’re not in North Korea, where you literally wouldn’t hear anything at all other than how great the “Dear Leader” is.