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Why This Past “Regular” From ChisMartenson.com (aka Peak Prosperity) Is Back Full Time

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  • Thu, Apr 02, 2015 - 06:21pm

    #1
    .

    .

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

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    Posts: 311

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    Why This Past “Regular” From ChisMartenson.com (aka Peak Prosperity) Is Back Full Time

Greetings  & Salutations from all you folks out there from the old CM.com era, circa 2009-2011, when I was VERY active on this site. From 2012 to present, I must confess, I had become more than a little complacent, but the red flags that I am seeing, both in the geopolitical arena and the general economic sphere, are resonating with me as a weird sort of de je vue ala 2007. 

Some things just don’t feel right out in the world now and that has been very much on my mind, to the point where I re subscribed to CM, err, PeakProsperity to discipline myself to prepare for some potential near future shocks. 

Why? 

Well, you have the Grexit situation looming, the Ukrainian time bomb, and restart of the Cold War, the domestic Police State roadmap going into 5th gear, and the crazy deflationary trends in commodities. The (IMO) unnatural crash in energy prices, which me thinks are an intentional manipulation in the greater game of international gamemanship (bankrupt Russia, anyone?) is also creeping me out. 

Plus I have been observing an even greater narcotized apathy of the general population to trends and events that would have set alarm bells off in generations past. 

I don’t know how quite to communicate this, but something just doesn’t feel “right” about the trajectory of 2015. So, can I have a sanity check please? Does anyone have this “gut feel” that this year is going to reveal a particularly nasty surprise in the geopolitical/geoeconomic domain? I mean WELL above and beyond the typical news. And if so, what are YOUR data points that make you also feel a bit queazy?

Thanks, 

Pete. Aka “Morpheus”

  • Fri, Apr 03, 2015 - 01:27am

    #2

    Peter Bartels

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Dec 27 2008

    Posts: 194

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    Morpheus needs to grammar and

Morpheus needs to grammar and spell check so he does not come across as illiterate. cheeky

One more huge data point if the creation of the CIIPS bank (from China) which is a direct challenge to US dollar hegemony. Any watching that data point? That one is scary. 

  • Fri, Apr 03, 2015 - 01:50am

    #3

    pinecarr

    Status Gold Member (Offline)

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    Posts: 1085

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    Welcome back, Morpheus

Yep, I think you are in good company re the gut feeling that the direction things are heading in 2015 is not good.  Many people here and on other like-minded sites are saying the same thing; that they can't believe things are still even holding together.  If you go on Greg Hunter's USAWatchdog.com, he regularly quizzes guests on whether they, too, feel like something big is going to happen by/before fall of this year.  It seems hard to believe the intensity of the global situation can continue to crescendo like this without something soon breaking.

Your statement "Plus I have been observing an even greater narcotized apathy of the general population to trends and events that would have set alarm bells off in generations past" resonated with me.  I was just thinking the other day that in years gone by, a war without Congressional Approval would have at least raised some kind of a stink in the general public.  But now, it's like we continuously get involved in new conflicts abroad, and no one even seems to notice.  Or maybe it is just that I no longer watch the mainstream "news", and so I just don't hear about such protests.

Glad to see you back.

  • Fri, Apr 03, 2015 - 02:11am

    #4

    westcoastjan

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jun 04 2012

    Posts: 177

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    Gut vs. data points

Hi Morpheus,

Interesting initial post! Note – grammar and spelling are not important – thoughts conveyed & discussion encouraged are what matters – to me anyway.

I trust my gut, which seems to resemble yours – this time it actually is different, and yes, I do believe 2015 will have some seriously defining moments that are going to affect all of us, regardless of where we live. The downside of globalization is the interconnectedness, and no country is immune to a downdraft that comes from another…

Unlike others who frequent this site I cannot produce charts and hard data with graphs and stats and all the intellectual mumbo jumbo that I read but struggle to make sense of. I instead go by what I see around me on a daily basis, what I observe by my extensive reading/research of non-MSM information, and more than anything, by my instincts, which I trust implicitly.

The cliff is full steam ahead! The sheeple are oblivious that the tracks end just around the corner… many still think they are Wylie E. Coyote and will magically bounce at the bottom of the canyon and get to have another crack at the Road Runner. Not gonna happen this time I am afraid. Wylie is like the Central Banks:  you can only fool us for so long into thinking that it never ends.

Risk management/prep/cultivating emotional resilience = the metaphorical parachute that might help create a softer landing. Emphasis on might. I have no illusions as to what is coming at us. As always, it is about timelines. When, when, when? Tomorrow, next week, next year????

There are no guarantees. As always, those who embrace the motto "better a year too early than a day too late" will have better odds. Prepping intelligently and making well thought out decisions are the only things that we really have in our control.

Jan

 

  • Fri, Apr 03, 2015 - 02:29am

    #5

    Peter Bartels

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Dec 27 2008

    Posts: 194

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    I forgot about Greg Hunter.

I forgot about Greg Hunter. His website is still around? Thanks for the tip .Yeah, I wanted to probe the pulse of the member here, particularly for data points that I am either not aware of, or forgot about, to, if anything, get a calibration so to speak. 

I started noticing some good premium articles on this site, and for a while said to myself, "nah, that's an oz or two of silver", but, there just seemed to be too many important articles that I was missing. Plus, I was violating the #1 rule of investing (IMO). That is, information is money, and information is an investment multiplier. So the short of it was, by cancelling my premium membership I was being penny wise and pound foolish. Can I find this information elsewhere for free? Sure, but now I quote the "time is money" axoim…..

  • Fri, Apr 03, 2015 - 02:35am

    #6

    Peter Bartels

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Dec 27 2008

    Posts: 194

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    westcoastjan wrote:Hi

[quote=westcoastjan]

Hi Morpheus,

Interesting initial post! Note – grammar and spelling are not important – thoughts conveyed & discussion encouraged are what matters – to me anyway.

I trust my gut, which seems to resemble yours – this time it actually is different, and yes, I do believe 2015 will have some seriously defining moments that are going to affect all of us, regardless of where we live. The downside of globalization is the interconnectedness, and no country is immune to a downdraft that comes from another…

Unlike others who frequent this site I cannot produce charts and hard data with graphs and stats and all the intellectual mumbo jumbo that I read but struggle to make sense of. I instead go by what I see around me on a daily basis, what I observe by my extensive reading/research of non-MSM information, and more than anything, by my instincts, which I trust implicitly.

The cliff is full steam ahead! The sheeple are oblivious that the tracks end just around the corner… many still think they are Wylie E. Coyote and will magically bounce at the bottom of the canyon and get to have another crack at the Road Runner. Not gonna happen this time I am afraid. Wylie is like the Central Banks:  you can only fool us for so long into thinking that it never ends.

Risk management/prep/cultivating emotional resilience = the metaphorical parachute that might help create a softer landing. Emphasis on might. I have no illusions as to what is coming at us. As always, it is about timelines. When, when, when? Tomorrow, next week, next year????

There are no guarantees. As always, those who embrace the motto "better a year too early than a day too late" will have better odds. Prepping intelligently and making well thought out decisions are the only things that we really have in our control.

Jan

[/quote]

Jan, Instincts or gut feelings are often subconscious processes that are doing the analysis for you in the background, and giving you a heads-up without all the details.  

Fight or flight for example. How is it that so many people can react so masterfully in a split second life and death situation where time is so critically short that they cannot possibly have a deliberative intellectual conversation with themselves to decide the best course of action, yet they immediately engage in split second complex reactions with mastery, not even realizing that they are doing it? 

I trust my gut. It's the hidden part of my conscious giving me an executive summary that "something's up without drowning my already overtaxed conscious with all the details".

Now I need to go dig into why the quiet side of my brain is red flagging the present situation.  

  • Fri, Apr 03, 2015 - 05:53pm

    #7

    RNcarl

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: May 13 2008

    Posts: 179

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    same same

Well,

I must say that I am in "collapse fatigue."

Meaning, Chicken little has cried the sky is falling for the last 10 years… And it hasn't fallen yet!

"2014 is going to be the year things are going to happen."

"2015 is showing all the signs…"

"2016 _______ (fill in the blank)"

Yes, this year is different. 2008 was different too. So was 2005. Not to mention 2001 around the eleventh of September if I remember correctly.

I was born and raised Catholic (please censors there is a point and I am not delving into a discussion about religion) and when I was in high school I fell in love with a girl that was a Methodist. The preacher was one of those good old "born again" types and my soul needed saving because the rapture was at hand! I bought it, became "born again," and spent the next few years of my life afraid of my shadow. My point is, that unless the rapture has already occurred, and I wasn't on the soul train to heaven – the guy was flat out wrong! Since then, I have learned to hedge my bets, live my life, and not worry about what I can't control. I went back to the religious dogma of my youth, (turns out those heathen Catholics were Christians after all!) – to hedge my bet about heaven, broke up with the overly obsessed girlfriend, and went about my life! Along the way, I met the perfect woman, had to brilliant children and without even knowing it, made myself more "resilient!"

Now, did I fall for the "eminent collapse" theory? Sure did, even moved my family over 700 miles away from our extended family support system to prove it! Was it a dumb move? In some ways yes, in others, no.

2015 has shaped up to being a very weird year indeed. There is no logical reason for oil to be ~$50/bbl

We are poking a bear with a stick and at the same time ignoring the hornets nest buzzing just to the south of it!

My generation was supposed to be the one voted most likely to, "not give a $h!t" yet I have never seen a time in my life where the youth are so focused on bread and circuses.

In the '60's if the police acted the way they have been the last decade, there would have been mass riots that would make Ferguson look like a rehearsal!

So, are things "different" now? You bet 'cha! Will I get to live out my "Walking Dead" fantasies? Most likely not. The U.S. is bigger than the Titanic and Queen Mary II combined. Is she running aground or is she about to strike the last iceberg left in the North Atlantic and sink in 11 minutes(thanks climate change)…. I am hoping that she runs aground, but I bought a "drysuit" just in case!

Welcome back Morpheus. Just don't drink the Kool-aid until the comet is in sight!

  • Sat, Apr 04, 2015 - 01:59am

    #8

    Peter Bartels

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Dec 27 2008

    Posts: 194

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    RNcarl wrote:Well,I must

[quote=RNcarl]

Well,

I must say that I am in "collapse fatigue."

Meaning, Chicken little has cried the sky is falling for the last 10 years… And it hasn't fallen yet!

"2014 is going to be the year things are going to happen."

"2015 is showing all the signs…"

"2016 _______ (fill in the blank)"

Yes, this year is different. 2008 was different too. So was 2005. Not to mention 2001 around the eleventh of September if I remember correctly.

I was born and raised Catholic (please censors there is a point and I am not delving into a discussion about religion) and when I was in high school I fell in love with a girl that was a Methodist. The preacher was one of those good old "born again" types and my soul needed saving because the rapture was at hand! I bought it, became "born again," and spent the next few years of my life afraid of my shadow. My point is, that unless the rapture has already occurred, and I wasn't on the soul train to heaven – the guy was flat out wrong! Since then, I have learned to hedge my bets, live my life, and not worry about what I can't control. I went back to the religious dogma of my youth, (turns out those heathen Catholics were Christians after all!) – to hedge my bet about heaven, broke up with the overly obsessed girlfriend, and went about my life! Along the way, I met the perfect woman, had to brilliant children and without even knowing it, made myself more "resilient!"

Now, did I fall for the "eminent collapse" theory? Sure did, even moved my family over 700 miles away from our extended family support system to prove it! Was it a dumb move? In some ways yes, in others, no.

2015 has shaped up to being a very weird year indeed. There is no logical reason for oil to be ~$50/bbl

We are poking a bear with a stick and at the same time ignoring the hornets nest buzzing just to the south of it!

My generation was supposed to be the one voted most likely to, "not give a $h!t" yet I have never seen a time in my life where the youth are so focused on bread and circuses.

In the '60's if the police acted the way they have been the last decade, there would have been mass riots that would make Ferguson look like a rehearsal!

So, are things "different" now? You bet 'cha! Will I get to live out my "Walking Dead" fantasies? Most likely not. The U.S. is bigger than the Titanic and Queen Mary II combined. Is she running aground or is she about to strike the last iceberg left in the North Atlantic and sink in 11 minutes(thanks climate change)…. I am hoping that she runs aground, but I bought a "drysuit" just in case!

Welcome back Morpheus. Just don't drink the Kool-aid until the comet is in sight!

[/quote]

 

Well, I haven't dug the bunker yet RN, and to be honest, I disappeared for the past few years precisely because I live by the motto Prepare for the Worst, and Live for the Best, meaning, I have done my due diligence, set aside my various insurance policies and went about enjoying my life as if there was no comet about to hit planet Earth. So in that regard, I'm with ya'. 

My wife and I simply refused to miss out on our lives buy spending every waking day worrying about our lives. That doesn't mean an All-or-None philosophy (Either Dig the Bunker, or Get Back into the Flock and Baa!).  Nope, after Collapse Fatigue started to set in here, we decided that we would do enough due dilligence to prepare for a mid-term moderately bad fiscal/social meltdown, get that plan and insurance policy done, and then "get back to livin'". 

But we also decided to reduce the amount of Rational Ignorance that we would normally carry by spending more time in "the world" but this time do so from almost a dispassionate, academic-like perspective. We watch geopolitical events with great interest (in place of television, which I firmly believe turns people into idiots) study and monitor monetary and economic trends with as great an interest as during the "impending doom" but for different reasons. I have found that since becoming more engaged in these times with the "Boring and Mundane" affairs such as the economy and central bank watching, my retirement portfolio's rate of return has more than doubled, and handily beats the range of returns of the 401ks of my colleagues (I am in science and engineering, they talk about numbers all the time, so they talk about 401k annual percentages like the weather where I work). Instead of planting a survival garden, my wife and I plant a garden for other reasons: First, we found out that we love gardening, Second, we're both excellent chefs and fresh produce on the table has really spiced up the dinner table, Third. the cost saving are substantial, with the difference split between recreation and retirement, and Finally, the food is just healthier. We're now into sausage, butter, cheese, and breadmaking. But for different reasons. 

The best thing about this RN? These skills are all dual usage skills. We do them for different reasons now, but if we get another Black Swan Event in the future, then we are automatically hedged against tail risk!

All that and we get to enjoy our lives without the bunker mentality nor the neurosis. So it's a win-win. 

What brings me back is that I suspect, I think, my hunch is that 2015 is going to be a very significant year in terms of human devolution. And when things get interesting from an economic perspective, CM.com is really a very useful asset. See, at the end of the year I still think that I will be looking at the Christmas tree WITH THE LIGHTS ON IT LIT, but I also suspect that the odds of a significant market change (20, 30. 35%?) are lining up. Unlike 2009, I am not afraid of that (I actually made 3.2% that year), I want to position myself to weather it and come out ahead. 

Do I think we will collapse to a Third World nation? Of course I do. But not overnight. For those waiting for the "Big One", it's already happening and has been happening. But the slope of the collapse is far gentler than what most people are looking for so they don't realize that they are already in it! So while they're waiting for the Big Dislocation, they've already missed 15% of it. LOL

2015, if my twitching big toe doesn't fail me, has a decent probability of another sudden dislocation of the Societal Fault Line (or more likely a jolt, magnitude 5-6), and it could even be bad enough to split a wall of a house or two. But I don't think it is going to swallow up the town, metaphorically speaking. 

Good to see you again. We're on the same page. 

  • Sat, Apr 04, 2015 - 07:09pm

    #9

    nickbert

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jan 14 2009

    Posts: 260

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    Welcome back

Welcome back.  I think many of us old timers never really left the site (and some of use still post frequently), though I know I've posted far less often more due to time constraints (I no longer have a job with a lot of down time) rather than collapse fatigue.  I think a lot of us tend to post less over time as we migrate from looking for and comprehending the relevant issues and concerns, and move more towards actions and doing stuff.

Personally my gut instinct and intuition is also telling me 2015 is going to be a year to remember, though for me if feels like it will be more in the way of being recognized as a major transition or turning point, but not so much the year of the 'Horrendous Economic Kablooie!' (to paraphrase Calvin from Calvin & Hobbes).  The funny thing is I expect that this or whatever year ends up being that historical transition or shift in direction, most won't recognize it as such until years later.  And at this point I suspect the peak impact of the 'Kablooie', at least for the US and most of Europe, is not here quite yet.  But that's just my guess.

  • Sun, Apr 05, 2015 - 07:43am

    #10

    Mark Cochrane

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    Joined: May 24 2011

    Posts: 828

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    This time is different…. (cough, cough)

Morpheus,

Glad to have you back on board our express train to nowhere. As RNcarl alludes to, we have to keep in mind that we are in danger of sounding like those sailing the global economic ship of fools (this time is different…) when we claim this time is different for some grand collapse year after year. That said, the amount of lunacy piling up across the planet is just absurd. I agree with you that, in retrospect, historians will argue that we were already well on the road to perdition by the time 2015 arrived and (maybe) provided the next major jolt on the rollercoaster ride down after the 2007 entrance into the long descent.

You asked what other 'gut feelings' people have about the current geopolitical situation. In addition to the items that you listed, a couple of things have me wondering what is really going on? Is anyone else bothered that we stirred up a hornets nest in Yemen and then just abandoned the place for the Saudis to sort out? We've been having 'issues' with the Saudi kingdom since at least the Syrian debacle when Russia handed us our diplomatic heads. We didn't do our part for them and now they are putting the screws to both Russia and the US by driving the oil prices low. Next we abandon Yemen and tell them to fix it while we make nice with their greatest enemies in Iran. Am I missing something?

Is it just my impression or do we seem to be actively alienating every 'ally' that we have? We stirred up another potential catastrophe in Ukraine to have an excuse for punishing Russia but we also cast the specter of war over Europe again. After getting caught spying on our friends we then strong armed them into cutting their own throats with economic sanctions on Russia. Then suddenly Germany and France are running peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia without us? That is followed up by everyone, starting with the UK (the UK!) abandoning us to join China and Russia in the AIIB bank. The US seems to be increasingly out of touch.

I don't know if any of this means collapse in 2015 but I do think that these are clear signals that we have overplayed our 'last remaining super power' hand and are getting lined up for a serving of humble pie as the dollar hegemony is whittled away at. If the Saudi's abandon the petrodollar things will get interesting in a hurry…

Mark

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