Investing in precious metals 101

“Why the “Peak Oil” Theory Falls Down — Myths, Legends, and the Future of Oil Resources”

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  • Wed, Dec 17, 2008 - 07:40pm

    #11

    Xanb

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    Peak Oil on Reuters

 

http://www.reuters.com/news/video?videoId=95566&videoChannel=5

 

  • Wed, Dec 17, 2008 - 09:35pm

    #12

    Damnthematrix

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    Re: “Why the “Peak Oil” Theory Falls Down — Myths, …

[quote=redpoe]"Despite his valuable contribution, M. King Hubbert’s
methodology falls down because it does not consider likely resource
growth, application of new technology, basic commercial factors, or the
impact of geopolitics on production. His approach does not work in all
cases-including on the United States itself-and cannot reliably model a
global production outlook. Put more simply, the case for the imminent
peak is flawed. As it is, production in 2005 in the Lower 48 in the
United States was 66 percent higher than Hubbert projected."
[/quote]

No, Hubbert could never have predicted way back in 1960 that the 1980 oil embargo would occur.  But his mathematical ‘theory’ (there’s very little in calculus that is theoretical!) is 100% accurate.  If you are familiar with the concept of ‘area under the curve’ then you would see that if the amount of oil that was not produced during the shocks of the 70s/80s  had been produced, then Hubbert’s prediction of a peak in 2000 would have in fact occured….

There’s no such thing as resource growth.  We are using oil at FIVE TIMES the rate of discovery….!  Just let THAT sink in…

The reason the US is not depleting as fast as Hubbert had predicted is because you lot are raping and pillaging the rest of the world’s oil fields!  Not a stupid idea really, I mean why would you deplete your own fields when you can deplete someone else’s?

Technology will not help, at all.  Hi Tech oil extraction depletes fields faster.  The oil volume under the curve is determined by GEOLOGY…  I don’t know how many times this has to be said.  You can get more out faster with horizontal drilling and multiple heads, but all you’re doing is speeding up the depletion rate.  You can use technology to drill in ultra deep water, but the nett energy content gets ridiculously low….  clutching at straws I call it.

Technology, BTW, was used to map the Earth with radar (NASA).  One of the things they were looking for was oil, and yes they found the odd puddle.  NOTHING will alter the fact that peak discovery was 1964, because there is NOTHING left on the planet of the size that was discovered way back then.  It’s simply easier to find the huge fields first, so easy they were all discovered very quickly.  Get used to it, I have…. 

  • Wed, Dec 17, 2008 - 09:52pm

    #13

    Damnthematrix

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    Re: “Why the “Peak Oil” Theory Falls Down — Myths, …

[quote=Ray Hewitt]

Get over it Chris. Facts need to be put in context, which is what my point was above. You’re looking at the data mechanically, you can’t be sure if there are facts you have missed and you’re making linear extrapolations in a non-linear world.

The fact is, because of the crashing economy, energy consumption has dropped everwhere and producers have had to cut back. You can’t put a timeline on Peak Oil. That’s a fact.

If you want to worry about it, be my guest. What good it will do you, is beyond my imagination. That’s all I wanted to say.

[/quote]

So Ray, you look at data romantically?  With rose colored glasses?

The fact is, because of the crashing economy, the oil industry is doomed….  even before this crash started, Matt Simmons was bemoaning the fact that much of the gear the oil industry is old and rusting and needs replacing.  The cost was (from memory) in the trillions…..  This spending on infrastructure will now never happen, especially with oil at $43.  I read last month that the majors removed 600 oil rigs from service, three times as many as they had originally anticipated.

IF we ever get over this depression (and I think we won’t) oil will need to get back up to $120+ to make any rebuilding viable. Just what do you think oil rebounding to these levels do?  Restart the next collapse maybe?

As far as the timeline’s concerned, we’re past PO now.  This is as good as it gets, and it’s not very good is it…..

Yes Ray, the neo-Malthusians got it wrong.  It’s all happening faster and worse than any of them ever predicted.  But I’m ready, are you?

Mike 

  • Wed, Dec 17, 2008 - 10:02pm

    #14

    Damnthematrix

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    Re: “Why the “Peak Oil” Theory Falls Down — Myths, …

[quote=xpatUSA]

I’m a Peaker, as testified to by my Jeep CRD and the mostly E85 sloshing around in the tank of my 1994 V8 Chevy pickup.[/quote]

With all due respect Ted, a "real peaker" would get rid of his car, especially a V8 pick up!  I no longer own a car.  My wife drives a 20 year old 40MPG 1.6L Ford.  She’s a Nurse, and it’s the only way she can get to work at the weird hours demanded of her.

Ethanol is a total con, using as much fossil energy as you get out of it.  Might make you feel good, but I wouldn’t touch it with a 40 foot barge pole.  All you’re doing is stealing someone else’s food. 

  • Wed, Dec 17, 2008 - 10:36pm

    #15
    switters

    switters

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    Re: “Why the “Peak Oil” Theory Falls Down — Myths, …

[quote=Damnthematrix][quote=Ray Hewitt]

Get over it Chris. Facts need to be put in context, which is what my point was above. You’re looking at the data mechanically, you can’t be sure if there are facts you have missed and you’re making linear extrapolations in a non-linear world.

The fact is, because of the crashing economy, energy consumption has dropped everwhere and producers have had to cut back. You can’t put a timeline on Peak Oil. That’s a fact.

If you want to worry about it, be my guest. What good it will do you, is beyond my imagination. That’s all I wanted to say.

[/quote]

The fact is, because of the crashing economy, the oil industry is doomed….  even before this crash started, Matt Simmons was bemoaning the fact that much of the gear the oil industry is old and rusting and needs replacing.  The cost was (from memory) in the trillions…..  This spending on infrastructure will now never happen, especially with oil at $43.  I read last month that the majors removed 600 oil rigs from service, three times as many as they had originally anticipated.

[/quote]

Exactly, Mike.  I just listened to an interview with Simmons the other day and he said the needed investment in rig infrastructure is $2 trillion +.

Where is that going to come from?  The TARP?

  • Wed, Dec 17, 2008 - 11:26pm

    #16

    Damnthematrix

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    Re: “Why the “Peak Oil” Theory Falls Down — Myths, …

Not even industry believes PO is a hoax anymore…. 

http://planetark.org:80/wen/50934

Peak Oil Warning
Date: 16-Dec-08
Country: US
Author: Michelle Carlile-Alkhouri

A recent report from the Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security
warns that supplies of cheap, easily accessible oil will start to diminish by
2013.

The industry lobby group, which includes Virgin, Yahoo, Solarcentury and
transport operator Stagecoach, wants the Government to dramatically increase
investment in clean energy and renewables to avoid an energy crisis.

  • Thu, Dec 18, 2008 - 12:36am

    #17

    Ray Hewitt

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    Re: “Why the “Peak Oil” Theory Falls Down — Myths, …

Chris

One could argue that the future of human civilization depends to some
degree on a correct analysis of the oil supply and how we respond to
that analysis.

If I had a nickel for every movement whose mission was to save human civilization, I’d be a millionare. This Depression just set back your calculations twenty years minimum. People are conserving. Isn’t that what you want?

We can only operate from the facts we know and the facts that are
knowable.  We live in a world with contraints and finite limits.

Right out of the gate, you missed the big drop in oil  prices and the production cutbacks. You’re using "finite" to imply measurable limits when there are none.

There is never any reliable evidence offered that contradicts the data supporting PO. 

There is no reliable evidence on anything.

People don’t react to data; they react to prices. Whether they believe or not is immaterial.

 

 

  • Thu, Dec 18, 2008 - 12:51am

    #19
    switters

    switters

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    Re: “Why the “Peak Oil” Theory Falls Down — Myths, …

Ray,

The claim that "there is no reliable evidence on anything" is a completely missing the point.  It’s ridiculous to suggest that we need 100% certainty on an issue before we should respond.  

If a doctor informs you that you have a 95% chance of having a heart attack in three months, you might want to make a few changes to your lifestyle.  Or you could say, "sorry doc, there’s no reliable evidence" that I’m going to have a heart attack so I’ll just keep doing what I’m doing thanks very much.  I wonder how long you’d last with that attitude.  Probably not long.

Deflation will destroy demand for oil, but it won’t do anything to expand renewables and prepare us for peak.  Oil at $40 or below is also stopping investment in tar sands, heavy oil and new crude exploration and development – all of which was expected to offset peak.  A decrease in demand isn’t necessarily going to push back peak; in fact, it could accelerate it.

 

  • Thu, Dec 18, 2008 - 12:53am

    #18

    Ray Hewitt

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    Re: “Why the “Peak Oil” Theory Falls Down — Myths, …

Matrix

So Ray, you look at data romantically?  With rose colored glasses? 

Are you trying to be annoying? I have better ways to spend my time. No data can predict human behavior.

Yes Ray, the neo-Malthusians got it wrong.  It’s all happening faster
and worse than any of them ever predicted.  But I’m ready, are you? 

What? My once busy commute is like a drive on Sunday morning. Prices are dropping like a stone, and producers are cutting back. The neo-Malthusians will have to push back their calculations – again.

IF we ever get over this depression (and I think we won’t) oil will
need to get back up to $120+ to make any rebuilding viable. Just what
do you think oil rebounding to these levels do?  Restart the next
collapse maybe? 

You’ll be wrong..

  • Thu, Dec 18, 2008 - 02:20am

    #21

    xpatUSA

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    Re: “Why the “Peak Oil” Theory Falls Down — Myths, …

[quote=Damnthematrix][quote=xpatUSA]

I’m a Peaker, as testified to by my Jeep CRD and the mostly E85 sloshing around in the tank of my 1994 V8 Chevy pickup.[/quote]

With all due respect Ted, a "real peaker" would get rid of his car, especially a V8 pick up!  I no longer own a car.  My wife drives a 20 year old 40MPG 1.6L Ford.  She’s a Nurse, and it’s the only way she can get to work at the weird hours demanded of her.

Ethanol is a total con, using as much fossil energy as you get out of it.  Might make you feel good, but I wouldn’t touch it with a 40 foot barge pole.  All you’re doing is stealing someone else’s food. 

[/quote]

By "I’m a peaker", I guess I meant that I concur the material presented in that book "The View from Hubbert’s Peak" .

Actually, the Jeep was bought with the intent to buy or make bio-diesel in the future.

The pick-up is pretty much a "farm truck" which occasionally makes a trip to town. Sounds like your Ford lives in UK? If so, it does about 33 mpg (US gal) not too different from the Jeep.

You’re right that ethanol is not the answer, perhaps the later processes are better e.g. cellulosic.

My gut feeling is for algaeic diesel fuel but I don’t understand why the producers are still penny stocks, or jokers like PetroSun.

cheers,

Ted

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