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When will we run out of oil? Never!

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  • Sun, Dec 21, 2008 - 03:40am

    #1
    rufus

    rufus

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    When will we run out of oil? Never!

Chapter 11 from Julian’s Simon’s book, The Ultimate Resource II

The best rebuttal of Peak Oil that I have seen so far. Goof food for thought

  • Sun, Dec 21, 2008 - 03:58am

    #2

    jkibbe

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    Re: WHEN WILL WE RUN OUT OF OIL? NEVER!

Sorry, I skimed over the chapter and didn’t find it to be terribly compelling.  The author needs to listen to the Crash Course and learn about ERoEI (Net Energy) and the pitfalls of alternatives like ethanol, solar, and nuclear.  We might not ever run out of oil, but the stuff left in the ground might not be worth the trouble and expense related to extracting it.

  • Sun, Dec 21, 2008 - 04:33am

    #3

    Arthur Vibert

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    Re: WHEN WILL WE RUN OUT OF OIL? NEVER!

This was apparently written in 1998.

It seems to me that–10 years later–it has been superceded by reality.

Arthur

  • Sun, Dec 21, 2008 - 04:48am

    #4
    rufus

    rufus

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    Re: WHEN WILL WE RUN OUT OF OIL? NEVER!

 >The author needs to listen to the Crash Course and learn about ERoEI (Net Energy)

 The author is dead, so he won’t be listening to anything Smile. He does discuss the laws of diminishing returns. I have not read the whole book in depth, but the author seems to be reasonable and thorough. It is certainly worthwhile to give the opposing view a chance

  • Sun, Dec 21, 2008 - 05:03am

    #5

    Ruhh

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    Re: WHEN WILL WE RUN OUT OF OIL? NEVER!

I think that a lot of Peak Oil and/or Climate Change (CC) naysayers somewhat miss the point. Besides the ERoEI or if CC isn’t human related, the issues we must seriously consider are that with each and every new oil field and the products they create are realeasing pollutants into our atmosphere, our water and our soil. Not to mention the biodiversity and natural habitat are rapidly declining as direct and indirect results.

Empty parking lots and highways are not exactly ideal places to grow or find food.

  • Sun, Dec 21, 2008 - 10:00am

    #6

    Pandabonium

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    Re: WHEN WILL WE RUN OUT OF OIL? NEVER!

[quote=rufus]

I have not read the whole book in depth, but the author seems to be reasonable and thorough. It is certainly worthwhile to give the opposing view a chance

[/quote]

Please respect the other people on this forum by knowing what you are talking about before posting something which is contrary to the very purpose of this website.  Is there room for disagreement?  Of course.  But "do your homework" first and stop waisting other people’s time.  At least look over the Blog Roll & Affliates and research your questions there before making such brash statements.

This is a serious topic.  Literally billions of lives are in the balance.  I am sure you are well meaning in offering up something you discovered and find interesting, but try to gather more information and filter it through your grey matter before proclaiming it to the world.

 

 

  • Sun, Dec 21, 2008 - 04:03pm

    #7
    switters

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    Re: WHEN WILL WE RUN OUT OF OIL? NEVER!

[quote=rufus]

 I have not read the whole book in depth, but the author seems to be reasonable and thorough. It is certainly worthwhile to give the opposing view a chance

[/quote]

Ah hem.  

I couldn’t agree more that it’s worthwhile to give the opposing view a chance.  But what makes you think we haven’t?  Some of us have been studying this issue for a long time.  Years, in fact.  You glance through a book without even reading it, and then create a forum topic in ALL CAPS with the title "When will we run out of oil?  Never!"

As another commenter observed, that is irresponsible and disrespectful to those who have actually invested the necessary time and energy to learn about peak oil; not because you present a different view, but because you didn’t even read the book, take any time to substantiate its arguments, or compare those arguments with opposing perspectives that are well-represented here and elsewhere.

All of this makes me wonder about your intentions.  Do you truly want to learn about PO, or are you just interested in stirring the pot.  If the latter, please don’t waste our time.  That kind of thing has been happening more frequently around here lately, and it’s getting tiring.

  • Sun, Dec 21, 2008 - 04:42pm

    #8
    barrt

    barrt

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    Re: WHEN WILL WE RUN OUT OF OIL? NEVER!

Woah thats a bit harsh isnt it Pandabonium and Chris K?

Whatever happened to freedom guys? of both speech and information? Some of us havent been studying this for a long time. Your not really passing the dinner party test here gentlemen. If you cant bring up a topic you are interested in in order to have a discussion about it for fear of the ‘experts’ jumping on you then we, are, all, doomed.

And as for peak oil, havent we just pushed it way into the future by building and popping the mother of all bubbles thereby destroying credit, money, industry and growth for the forseeable future, perhaps forever? All we need to do then is jack the price of oil right up again once everyone has no money and presto, maybe the original poster was right, genius. Just like Bush who planned all this from the start, such vision.

Just my 1.334 UK pence anyway

peace love and intelligent friendly conversations to you all this festive season

barrt

  • Sun, Dec 21, 2008 - 06:14pm

    #10

    gyrogearloose

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    Re: WHEN WILL WE RUN OUT OF OIL? NEVER!

[quote=jkibbe]Sorry, I skimed over the chapter and didn’t find it to be terribly compelling.  The author needs to listen to the Crash Course and learn about ERoEI (Net Energy) and the pitfalls of alternatives like ethanol, solar, and nuclear.  We might not ever run out of oil, but the stuff left in the ground might not be worth the trouble and expense related to extracting it.
[/quote]

I found that there is compelling evidence that every argument he makes has to be re-examined carefully as he is so wrong at a basic level.

[quote=]

(6) For the very long run, there is nothing meaningfully

"finite" about our world that inevitably will cause energy, or even 
oil in particular, to grow more scarce and costly. Theoretically, 
the cost of energy could go either up or down in the very long run. 
But the trends point to a lower cost.
    
 
(7) Forecasts based on technical analyses are less persuasive 
than historical extrapolations of cost trends.[/quote]
World not meaningfully "finite".??.....  Once you have based your argument on such a premise, everything thereafter collapses if your premise is found to be wrong.
Anyone care to argue that the world has infinite oil resources ?
    
 
Cheers Hamish 

 

 

  • Sun, Dec 21, 2008 - 09:08pm

    #11
    rufus

    rufus

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    Re: WHEN WILL WE RUN OUT OF OIL? NEVER!

I think the basic point in the book is that we don’t have to worry about running out of affordable energy in any meaningful time frame, because even if conventional oil gets more expensive, we have alternative energies to pick up the slack such as oil shale, tar sands, nuclear, solar, and bio-fuels. This is similar to John Holdren’s view as you can see here: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/itgg.2006.1.2.3?journalCode=itgg

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