VAERS: System Temporarily Down

The CDC Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System is temporarily down.  Has been for a while now.

https://wonder.cdc.gov/vaers.html

Apology: System Temporarily Down
VAERS component is temporarily down for maintenance.
Please bear with us for the next few hours.

We apologize for your inconvenience.

But that’s only the fancy query system.  Raw data is still there.

I had a spare afternoon.  I downloaded the raw data.  Saw something “interesting”.  Last 27 records.  Look at column #6: “died”.  A “Y” in that column means this “adverse event” was someone that died.

Note: this was not cherry-picked data or otherwise sorted.   I did rearrange the columns for easier visibility, combined records from different files (to include manufacturer), and eliminated some really long text columns.  You can check the data yourself (assuming it is still up: “VAERS DATA 2021”, 1.98 mb) here: https://vaers.hhs.gov/data/datasets.htm

I think I know why this system is “temporarily down for maintenance.”

Odd that deaths split similarly with both vaccines.

Sorry, I didn’t provide enough context in my post.

Earlier in the series, there were very, very few deaths.  There are 7804 COVID19 vaccine adverse events; of those, there were only 148 deaths.

But in the last 27 records, there were 24 deaths.

What does this mean?  I have no idea.  But this massive jump in the number of deaths may be why they shut the reporting system down.

You can download the data yourself.  Its remarkable.

Still down. Odd day and time to do “maintenance”.

my post time stamp says 1:15 but it’s actually 4:15. Is this Pacific time?

Fascinating!

Note also that the last three recorded dates in the series are way back on Jan 13, 14 and 15.

Why no more recent events?  It’s the 26th.  A gap of 11 days is an eternity in adverse event reporting…

There must be a good explanation for this.  Maybe it’s contained in the large gaps in the ID #’s?  Maybe there’s a bunch of mostly harmless AE’s and you pulled from a raw file that had already aggregated the most serious AEs?

Great find DaveF!  Really well done.

VAERS is also notorious for under-reporting.  A study some years back estimated that only 1% of adverse events are reported.  I expect it’s higher with the increased awareness right now, but there seem to be an awful lot of “coincidental” bad things happening.

Tiny Gibraltar Shines Huge Light on Vaccine Deaths

This tiny British Colony, barely three miles long, appended to the South coast of Spain, has only 32,000 residents. It had suffered relatively little from the epidemic before the 9th January this year, with only seventeen deaths for the whole period. The death rate was well down the Deaths per Million League Table. This was not due to isolation, since Spanish workers have continued to pour into Gib every morning, and back out every evening.

Since the 9th January “Covid deaths” per million have rocketed to Third Place on the Worldometer site. Thirty-six more deaths in little over a week. What changed on the Ninth? The RAF flew in nearly 6,000 Pfizer vaccines, cooled to -70C by dry ice. They were put to use quickly to avoid the risk of degradation. Tiny Gibraltar is like a petri dish; in no other place has there been such a brutally clear relationship between vaccine roll-out and increased “Covid deaths.” Local media and Government have not even referred to the obvious connection. And media elsewhere has conveniently not noticed. Yet failing to recognise that these deaths demand, at the very least, immediate investigation, requires a criminal failure of judgement.

With a small population , it is clearly apparent what we already knew; the cure is worse than the disease.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/gibraltar/

They had a spike in cases that started around 12/20, peaked around 1/1 and has just tapered back to the pre-spike level.  Deaths peaked around 2 and a half weeks later, are now a bit over halfway back down to the pre-spike low levels and total about 1.7% of cases.

Note that the vaccine was rolled out after the peak in cases and just as deaths were ramping up.

There might be a few vaccine reactions hiding in the deaths, but the data suggests most of these people died from actual covid.  It’s interesting to note that total cases went from about 3% of the population before the spike to 12.5% now.

I’m not sure “the data” explains the confluence between a whole bunch of new deaths reported to VAERS, and then the mysterious now-36-hour outage at the site, as well as no new updates having been received in those csv files.  Last recorded report was on January 15th.  That’s 12 days ago!!  What – we are running at a million vaccinations a day now, right?

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1354196769643622405
So @CDCgov says VAERS went down because it couldn’t handle the volume of requests it was getting (this was an email to an academic who asked). “Starting (Monday) at 7:30 am, the server was overwhelmed by too many incoming queries… We are working to resolve this problem.”

So why would shutting down the database query system impact production of those csv files?  Which can all still be downloaded just fine.  Are they still getting VAERS reports?  What are they doing with them?

The Watergate theorem most likely applies here: “Its not the crime that gets you, its the coverup.”

How bad must the crime be?

Hi Davefairtex,

Remarkable find indeed. Some basic probabilistic calculations show that this “streak” of deaths is extremely unlikely*. Either there is a change towards reporting only deaths, or there is indeed a higher risk of death…

Grts, Dave

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* The 95% confidence interval for the “probability of a single death”, 148 deaths, 7804 records, is (0.015, 0.023). Assuming that each entry is independent from the previous entry, the probability that this streak is purely random is smaller than (27 choose 24) x 0.023^24 = 1.4E-36, that is, indistinguishable from zero.