US military warns oil output may dip causing massive shortages by 2015

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  • Sat, Apr 17, 2010 - 02:59am

    #1
    castlewp

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    US military warns oil output may dip causing massive shortages by 2015

Hmmmm Is PO getting mainstream all the sudden??

“The US military has warned that surplus oil production capacity could disappear within two years and there could be serious shortages by 2015 with a significant economic and political impact.

The energy crisis outlined in a Joint Operating Environment report from the US Joint Forces Command, comes as the price of petrol in Britain reaches record levels and the cost of crude is predicted to soon top $100 a barrel.”

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/apr/11/peak-oil-production-supply

 

  • Sat, Apr 17, 2010 - 03:07am

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    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: US military warns oil output may dip causing massive …

Toyota’s Bill Reinert on Peak Oil

He said we are at or near “peak oil,” and that it will hit the second half of this decade. At Toyota they don’t discuss peak oil, they discuss peak liquid fuels. A half barrel of oil goes towards the production of gasoline.

http://financialnewsexpress.blogspot.com/2010/04/toyotas-bill-reinert-on-peak-oil.html

  • Sat, Apr 17, 2010 - 03:36am

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    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: US military warns oil output may dip causing massive …

Vice Admiral Dennis McGinn recently touched on Peak Oil in a speech at the Commonwealth club:

http://audio.commonwealthclub.org/audio/podcast/climateone.xml

 

In this post I noted Toyota’s recognition of Peak Oil also:

https://www.peakprosperity.com/forum/toyota-expects-peak-oil/36410

  • Sat, Apr 17, 2010 - 12:59pm

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    Re: US military warns oil output may dip causing massive …

[quote=castlewp]

Hmmmm Is PO getting mainstream all the sudden??

“The US military has warned that surplus oil production capacity could disappear within two years and there could be serious shortages by 2015 with a significant economic and political impact.

The energy crisis outlined in a Joint Operating Environment report from the US Joint Forces Command, comes as the price of petrol in Britain reaches record levels and the cost of crude is predicted to soon top $100 a barrel.”

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/apr/11/peak-oil-production-supply

 

[/quote]

Castlewp,

What scares me silly is that it took them since February 18th of this year until now to actually put it into print in the UK Guardian Newspaper. As for me, I read this report weeks ago!!!

The full report can be found by clicking on the link below: –

The Joint Operating Environment (JOE) 2010

You aren’t wrong that all things ‘Peak Oil’ are starting to go mainstream if reports such as this are given airing. After all, the information within it is even more current now than it was 2 months ago?

This piece I’ve copied from page #28 is aligned with the Guardian article:-

[quote=]

Energy Summary

 
To generate the energy required worldwide by the 2030s would require us to find an additional 1.4
MBD every year until then.
During the next twenty-five years, coal, oil, and natural gas will remain indispensable to meet energy
requirements. The discovery rate for new petroleum and gas fields over the past two decades (with the
possible exception of Brazil) provides little reason for optimism that future efforts will find major new
fields.
At present, investment in oil production is only beginning to pick up, with the result that production
could reach a prolonged plateau. By 2030, the world will require production of 118 MBD, but energy
producers may only be producing 100 MBD unless there are major changes in current investment and
drilling capacity.
By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in
output could reach nearly 10 MBD.
Energy production and distribution infrastructure must see significant new investment if energy
demand is to be satisfied at a cost compatible with economic growth and prosperity. Efficient hybrid,
electric, and flex-fuel vehicles will likely dominate light-duty vehicle sales by 2035 and much of the
growth in gasoline demand may be met through increases in biofuels production. Renewed interest in
nuclear power and green energy sources such as solar power, wind, or geothermal may blunt rising
prices for fossil fuels should business interest become actual investment. However, capital costs in
some power-generation and distribution sectors are also rising, reflecting global demand for alternative
energy sources and hindering their ability to compete effectively with relatively cheap fossil fuels.
Fossil fuels will very likely remain the predominant energy source going forward.

[/quote]

All things considered, it’s well worth reading the whole report (if you’re American probably more so). Give’s you a bloody good idea of exactly how much they don’t know …Surprised

My Best,

~ VF ~

  • Sat, Apr 17, 2010 - 09:16pm

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    Re: US military warns oil output may dip causing massive …

I sent an enquiry to EIA asking how to find the numbers for “oil supply” split by categories, as the “other liquids” category is biofuels
and they don’t count in the Peak Oil context.
 
They replied and it is in there – you would NEVER find it, and it has to be tediously extracted line by line and reconstructed into a spreadsheet, ( anyone would think they didn’t want people to know this stuff, and the definitions, see below, are even more difficult to extract ) but anyway here is the chart:
 
 
As you can see, the crude oil component has been in the 73 ± 2 Mb/d bracket since 2004 and it is the other components that have been increasing. In January 2004 biofuels accounted for only 1.0 Mb/d and in January 2010 that had nearly doubled to 1.9 Mb/d.
Likewise, Natural Gas Plant Liquids (which are mostly Propane and Butane, not oil) have grown by 0.9 Mb/d over the same period.
If it was possible to split out the Lease Condensate (which comes from gas fields, not oil fields) the bare Crude Oil figures would be even smaller.
Lease condensate: A mixture consisting primarily of pentanes and heavier hydrocarbons which is recovered as a liquid from natural gas in lease separation facilities. This category excludes natural gas plant liquids, such as butane and propane, which are recovered at downstream natural gas processing plants or facilities.
 
Natural gas plant liquids: Those hydrocarbons in natural gas that are separated as liquids at natural gas processing plants, fractionating and cycling plants, and, in some instances, field facilities. Lease condensate is excluded. Products obtained include ethane; liquefied petroleum gases (propane, butanes, propane-butane mixtures, ethane-propane mixtures); isopentane; and other small quantities of finished products, such as motor gasoline, special naphthas, jet fuel, kerosene, and distillate fuel oil.
 
Other Liquids:  Biodiesel, ethanol, liquids produced from coal and oil shale, non-oil inputs to methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), Orimulsion, and other hydrocarbons.
 
Refinery Processing Gain:  The volumetric amount by which total refinery output is greater than input for a given period of time.  This difference is due to the processing of crude oil into products which, in total, have a lower specific gravity than the crude oil processed.
It’s a conspiracy I tell you ! Despite everyone saying “we must have open and transparent data”, the figures published for “Oil Supply” have very little to do with oil supply.
 
Dave

  • Sun, Apr 18, 2010 - 01:57am

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    Re: US military warns oil output may dip causing massive …

Here is the report in it’s entirety;

http://www.peakoil.net/files/JOE2010.pdf

Chris had shown a chart at the New Paltz seminar which I believe to be a version of that shown on page 25 of the report referenced here.  I found this very impactful, as it depicts how rapid growth of the “new discoveries” column is needed to fill WW oil demand, starting NOW.  The gap is the issue, simply put.  

  • Sun, Apr 18, 2010 - 02:14am

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    Re: US military warns oil output may dip causing massive …

My 2 cents on peak oil.

Scared out of my mind about it. It truly requires a monumental shift in our thinking in order to truly process PO’s negative impacts. I keep hoping that the charts are off and that the observers (matt simmons, CM, oil drum) are being overly pessimistic about it. I keep telling myself that new reserves will be found, that higher oil prices will justify investment and searching in areas that were previously deemed off limits due to $15 crude.

I dont want to envision a future so dark and gloomy, a future where decline is continuous for the entire duration of my life (im 27). Worst case scenario, the airliners all get nationalized and only the wealthy are able to fly. I see courts no longer having in persona appearances for trivial matters and high definition web cam being the norm. Delivery mail will be the thing of the past as most written communication will be via email or fax. Carpooling will be huge. Food will shift from being imported in far away places to local production. No more eating bananas in the northeast but plenty of local produce. Do recall that oil consumption in the US plunged to 16 million bpd during july of 08, and that was before the crash of the financial system. Its entirely possible that the US can adjust to 14 million bpd for quite some time. China’s current consumption trends will fall apart once their commodity import frenzy comes to an end. Natural gas and electric vehicles will help ease the burden of declining oil production as over half of our oil consumption is from light vehicles.

PO will cause harm and will change our way of life. I just cant agree with the pessimistic mad max scenarios.

  • Sun, Apr 18, 2010 - 05:05am

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    Re: US military warns oil output may dip causing massive …

[quote=bearmarkettrader]

I dont want to envision a future so dark and gloomy, a future where decline is continuous for the entire duration of my life (im 27). Worst case scenario, the airliners all get nationalized and only the wealthy are able to fly.[/quote]

Not many people fly and then only the very wealthy. In fact only the wealthy can afford to drive cars and even then gas is rationed. Not only gas but food and clothing is rationed. Meat is rare and having canned corn beef or canned ham is a treat. Plenty of cabbage, turnips and potatoes. Butter, margarine, sugar and eggs are rationed while chocolate is unknown. Nice to get an egg once or twice a week. Local milk is fairly plentiful delivered daily by electric vans. Mail is delivered by foot as are the daily newspapers. Good local transportation system using electrically operated trolley buses.

Not the future but my recollection of post-war Britain prior to about 1950 (I’m 67).

  • Sun, Apr 18, 2010 - 11:13am

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    Re: US military warns oil output may dip causing massive …

Steve,

when I was 11 (I was born in England in 1967 and am now 42), I had the pleasure of talking with many many people of the time who were the same age as you are now, and as much as 95 years of age. I had many a fascinating conversation with people who had personal recollections of the first world war era, the first experience of electric light and the first experience of continental flight. In fact, one such man told me of reading in the news of the Wright brothers globally broadcast maiden flight!!

Many a discussion has been had about a ‘Happiness Index‘, for which, maybe you’ll feel as though I’ve set you a daunting task to read what has been a dry Wikipedia take on the subject of happiness. Even Jared Diamond got a look in.

Put simply, do you feel that growing up through the 40’s and 50’s you were happier and more content than of the generation that you see walking about the planet today? Do you feel that your own grandchildren would have more benefited the ‘classic’ appeal of a more sociable and slower paced upbringing than that of the frenetic one that they’ve had the job, through success or failure, to grow up in today?

Can you also see the benefit of the World slowing down so that humanity has more time to catch up with reality?

My Sunday morning thoughts after reading the replies to this thread!

My Best,

Paul

  • Sun, Apr 18, 2010 - 12:50pm

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    Re: US military warns oil output may dip causing massive …

The are many who are very depressed about the future and I must admit to being fairly nervous about it.  I have taken the Transition Town course and would like to get something started up in northwest CT.  If you are in this area let me know if you would be interested in getting involved.  I have known about this issue for quite some time and am now only interested to discussing solutions.  There seem to be so many web sites where there is a lot of indulgence in a kind of preverse “I believe the future is worse than you” one upmanship which I feel is kind of a waste of time.  This does not appear to be one of them

I built my own passive solar house some 22 years ago and have a large garden, but doing this on your own is quite the waste of time.

Peak oil is real – glad that the military has published it in the joe2010 – but at this point I’m feeling like – so what!

Reasource depletion is real

Massive fraud and manipulation in the financial markets is real – the gory details can lead into endless discussions but what is the productive outcome?

My sense is that the only way to survive this is to “drop out” of the main stream system and create an independent alternative as rapidly as possible. I acknowledge that one has to keep an eye on the current infrastructure as it begins to wobble and then crash, but that should be say 10% of our efforts?

Sorry to be so sour on my first post.  Chris has done a great job of putting together a lot great educational information, and education is an important first step.  Anybody taking the next one?

 

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