US and the impact on Asian markets
Thanks for the reply. Just FYI my interest has always been in culture. I’ve just finished a BA
majoring in Anthropology and Religions so I’m learning a lot from this
site about economics.
The climate change situation has been very noticable over the last few years. The Christmas Day before last there was snow in the Victorian hills i.e. a few days past the summer solstice! And last year New Zealand had iceburgs that had broken off the polar cap floating within miles of the south island which had never happened before. My ex who works for the EPA in Sydney used to say that if you like the weather in Sydney, move to Tasmania ’cause that’s where it’ll be in 10 years.
I’m hoping that you’re right about Oz being the least depleated of resources. You are probably right about that. Back in the early 1990s I was working for Greenpeace [showing my age now ] and they got us to watch a film on what would hypothetically happen if the world carried on as it had been. It had Australia being invaded from the north by the more populous countries as they ran out of room and necessities. Indonesia has been seen as a serious threat for decades and these days the Muslim extremists HATE us as a little America in their part of the world. I’ve heard that a lot of people outside of Australia don’t realise just how much of Australia is uninhabitable. With droughts from the El Nino effect going on for years, the dams of the south east are down around 40% IIRC. So we’ve been on water restrictions for years already.
What concerns me now is if the US is as screwed as the Crash Course tells us it is, then they’re not going to be able to fulfill their defense agreement with Australia and frankly, we depend on that. Our defence forces are very highly trained but they’re still tiny in number and the civilians are not armed, trained or in any way of a military mindset these days.
Y’know, I knew these things were linked, I knew economies go in cycles and that the US was heading for a big bust but now it’s here I’m still blown away by the enormity of it.
HarryFlashman and Black Sludge Covered Swan, what on EARTH is the matter with you?!
Harry ‘mate’, why critisize somebody for posting an idea? By posting imperfect ideas a good conversation can get started. You understand, if people only posted incontrovertible facts such as "HarryFlashman is an impolite dipweed," then there would be no net gain of knowledge. The idea is to encourage people to contribute, and then to contribute your own ideas which might be better.
Discouraging others from posting imperfect ideas reduces the number of opportunities for you to reply to them better information, and for other people to benefit from your information, which, for a pretentious narcisist who lives to tell others how much they know, can be a real problem in the long-run.
And Swan Guy: I have seen several of your posts before. You are apparenty a racist, slightly mentally unstable individual who probably should be blocked from this site. If you have "better things to do," then you ought to go do them, because writing here certainly isn’t one of your better things. You are an example of the sludge that seems to bubble up from the drainpipes and infest intelligent discussions when they are opened to the public. It pains me to know that, under our system of government, people such as yourself can vote.
If either of you were actually experts in your fields, you would be writing peer-reviewed articles in respectable academic publications, where, you might find, people are civil to each other. Since you are not experts, you have no business insulting others.
Before I posted my original topic, oil was still up. Now it’s dropping dramatically. Probably as a result of the American elections or lowering demand. I stated that OPEC should lower prices because of the state the economy is in, not as a permanent solution. I have already read that they will be cutting supply to raise prices once again. I feel that lower oil for the time being would be a benefit for the economy and prices for the next 1-2 years. I personally feel bad about the prices when they were higher because it effected so many middle and poorer people in the US and around the world. In the long run I hope prices skyrocket, forcing us to move quicker into alternative means of energy worldwide. Also the result of moving off or reducing oil dependency will greatly improve the environment.
As for the other posts, this is a free board with a free opinion for everyone. I was going on what I gathered from my Japanese friends, so I don’t need to respond to posts I feel are basically rude, and that’s my right here. Sorry I didn’t respond earlier to this thread, but my new baby daughter was born last week and I have been pretty busy lately.
I think that the volatility in energy prices is doing harm to our long-term energy preparedness, and I would argue that lower prices now, coupled with skyrocketing prices in the future, are a far more damaging scenario than steadily increasing prices with lower volatility. The short-term bust of the commodities bubble has cut the legs out from underneath many projects to develop new oil-extraction technology, and other energy-related infrastructure improvements. A short-term dip in oil prices now will not be good for the long-term economy, because lower prices will merely encourage further reliance on obsolete energy models, and if prices were to skyrocket in the future, leave the world less prepared than it could be.
We are going to have to deal with higher petroleum prices in this generation. I would rather take some pain now, so that long-term energy projects can become economically viable sooner rather than later. Besides, a deflationary recession period is the perfect time to get to work on heavy infrastructure and energy projects. If oil prices collapse during this recession, it will only guarantee that the next boom, when it comes, will be built on an energy model that can’t last, and will ultimately doom the next economy to failure. Except that when the next economy fails, we will have wasted even more time, and we may not then have the good luck of moderate energy and resource prices.
P.S. Congratulations krogoth on your new family member!
She’s a big baby, 10lbs. , and my wife is Asian so the baby almost killed her, but mom and baby are fine. Thanks for the nice words.
Congratulations from me too. I hope all goes well from here on particularly with your wife’s recovery. I have an eight week old baby who is trashing my sleep patterns, but at least I can see what’s going on while the rest of Australia’s sleeping.
my baby girl will be 30 in dec. so i know how you feel.
watching her be born was one of the most profound experiences of my
life . she is my closest friend.
i wish you as much happiness as i have had
all the best
On the comments about oil, I believe that the current price is a reflection of two things: (1) the slowing demand in the US* and (2) the unwinding of all of those future trades by hedge funds.
I like mainecooncat believe that oil will not remain low for too long. Opec is going to slash production because many of its members are loosing money at current prices. Remember, all countries work with budgets and if they are a commodities exporter they tend to use a price projection. In the case of most nations they used 70 to 80 bucks.
America and the world need expensive oil so people can start adapting to a new lifestyle and so that alternative energy sources can be attractive to develop.