US and the impact on Asian markets

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  • Mon, Oct 06, 2008 - 02:59am

    #1

    krogoth

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    US and the impact on Asian markets

It seems amazing that the events of American politicians, IE opening the door to these easy mortgages that anyone can get causing this housing bubble, is hammering the Asian areas of the world as well. I have come up with some reasons why this is being caused, and anyone can add based on what they think.

(1) Oil prices- This has a direct impact on people globally and quickly, hitting everything from food supply to industrial production. You think in a good world OPEC would lower prices dramatically in a time of crisis like this, but they are as bad or worse then the worldwide bankers. OPEC is like drug dealers, giving us the drug we need most at any cost, oil

(2) Consumer Confidence Index in America- This is a bad thing for exporters like China, who produce less because America (the biggest buyer of imported goods) and the world of course buying less. Poison milk additives is not helping China BTW 

(3) Bad Toxic Loan purchases through investment- Any investment in these bad loans from the past with Asian banks is certain doom

 

The Japanese economic situation is a Blueprint for what America is becoming. High unemployment, tight credit and high inflation. I welcome any comments from users here about other reasons you think this will be hitting major Asian countries or producers- India, China, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Vietnam etc. 

 

OK let’s dust the cobwebs off this region of the forum and add some content. All people living or dealing with Asian countries please comment how your situation is or what you think it will be in the future. Thanks.

 

  • Mon, Oct 06, 2008 - 06:11am

    #2
    HarryFlashman

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    Japan

Krogoth,

 If I understand the way you’re talking about the Japanese economy you have it arse-roads about mate.

 Yes,Japan did have a decade and a half of non -performing bank loans,but it hasn’t had anything even approaching inflation for the same length of time,it’s been the opposite, DEFLATION with zero,negative or very low growth-Stagdeflation.Unemployment has been pretty steady and pretty low(I think).This whole thing suits the older end of the Japanese population as they’re on a fixed income so their purchasing power was growing.Inflation has just restarted here,due to high oil prices I think(my 2kg bag of chicken breasts has nearly doubled in price in the last couple of months).

 

Tight credit??????????? What papers have you been reading???? The interest rate here has been basically zero for about 10 years!!!! Ever heard of the Yen carry trade??? The slight tightening of credit (to about 1%) killed that a bit and that is one of the reasons for the global slowdown.

 A little more economic literacy would be in order before you post mate.

  • Mon, Oct 06, 2008 - 07:37pm

    #3

    krogoth

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    Japan

Sorry you feel so strongly about this that you feel insults need to be slung. I am overseas in Taiwan and China on business alot and simply going by what my Japanese friends tell me. Next time I will do more credible research so you don’t need to be so rude, mate.

  • Tue, Oct 07, 2008 - 03:13am

    #4
    HarryFlashman

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    Rudeness perhaps but astonishment in a much more profound way

I’m assuming that you’re American? If so don’t read American media,it’s corporate owned and biased beyond belief.

 Also don’t listen to any Japanese people unless they’ve lived abroad for a long time,they’re so insulated that they  think that crime is high in Japan! The biggest crime in Japan is bicycle theft!!! I kid you not.

 A little research would not go amiss.

  • Tue, Oct 21, 2008 - 10:20am

    #5

    Maenad

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    Re: Rudeness perhaps but astonishment in a much more profound wa

Are you Australian? I ask because I am and your use of "mate" sounds either Aussie or British. I’d like to talk about the Australian situation which I don’t think is being taken seriously enough by most people here.

  • Tue, Oct 21, 2008 - 10:46am

    #6
    HarryFlashman

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    Re: Rudeness perhaps but astonishment in a much more profound wa

Hi Maenad,

 

I’m British.Don’t really know all that much about the Oz situation(though I have loads of Ozzy mates here in Japan).

 

As I understand things being an exporter of essential raw materials(Bauxite,Uranium etc) Australia is in a much better position to weather the present economic downturn than most,Chindia still need all those lovely metals and things like coal to grow even at a reduced rate.

 

The only problems I have though are with environmental stress to Australia’s more agriculturally productive areas(Darwin River Basin depletion?) there’s no way out of that mate ,not with all the climate shifts etc.So maybe no more exports…?Australia SHOULD always be able to feed itself with it’s reasonably small population and zillions of ‘Zippy the bush Kangas'(showing my age…….) and a vast ,albeit somewhat uninhabitable continent.

 

My Crystal Ball tells me that The Anzacs will do best out of the ‘peak everything’ thing as they are the least depleted.

 

Thinking of emigrating to N.Z. myself,Oz a bit hot for my tastes!

  • Tue, Oct 21, 2008 - 10:50am

    #7

    JMCSwan

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    Re: Preference for ‘Saving Face’ from ‘Insults’; or Honesty?

Krogoth (Mon, 10/06/2008 – 15:37)

Sorry you feel so strongly about this that you feel insults need to be slung. I am overseas in Taiwan and China on business alot and simply going by what my Japanese friends tell me. Next time I will do more credible research so you don’t need to be so rude, mate.

I’m really not sure what you found offensive, or insulting about his response.

I FOUND IT VERY, VERY REFRESHINGLY HONEST, AND FRANK…. LIKE A BREATH OF FRESH AIR — OH, FINALLY SOMEONE SPEAKING THEIR MIND….

Unless your ‘insult’ comes from your Japanese type of EGO, where you DON’T LIKE HONESTY, especially if someone disagrees with you — YOU PREFER THAT THEY LIE IN RESPONSE TO YOU, TO SAVE YOU FACE???

If you think Americans are brainwashed….. well then you ain’t seen nothing yet, if you compare them to Asian ‘SAVING FACE’ CULTURE……….. POOR SUCKERS..

  • Tue, Oct 21, 2008 - 01:10pm

    #8

    mainecooncat

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    Incredulity, astonishment and outrage. Krogoth’s not perfect.

Come on, guys, you can do better than this.

To Black Swan symbol dude and Harry Flashman: Writing in all caps and/or long strings of question marks and/or an over reliance on ellipses does not an argument make. In fact, I won’t even bother arguing the point.

I’ve always found Krogoth’s posts to be interesting and well-considered and the last thing I would consider him is a sheeple (if that is indeed the singular of sheeple) — as you imply in your post, Black Swan. I mean, if Krogoth is a sheeple than we have to invent a new term for the average American. It has to be as pejorative as it can get, so maybe you can help in that department, Black Swan.

As far as the "tight credit" comment that elicited such incredulity from HarryFlashman, my reading of it is that that comment was describing unfolding conditions in the US. That credit is tightening in the US, not that it has been tight. But then I realized that "tight credit" was part of the Japanese blueprint he was also referring to, which is incorrect because of how low Japanese interest rates have been. However, couldn’t interest rates be low but people not taking advantage of them through elevated levels of actual borrowing? And couldn’t interest rates be low but credit still be tight in the sense that banks maintain stringent lending standards simultaneously with low rates? (These are non-sarcastic, non-ironic questions by the way.)

I’d like to respectfully and maturely disagree with a couple of your points, Krogoth, in a later post.

  • Tue, Oct 21, 2008 - 01:36pm

    #9

    mainecooncat

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    OPEC shouldn’t lower prices

[quote=krogoth]

(1) Oil prices- This has a direct impact on people globally and quickly, hitting everything from food supply to industrial production. You think in a good world OPEC would lower prices dramatically in a time of crisis like this, but they are as bad or worse then the worldwide bankers. OPEC is like drug dealers, giving us the drug we need most at any cost, oil

[/quote]

 

I don’t believe OPEC should dramatically lower oil prices.

First, a couple of questions.

I know this probably sounds terribly naive, but wouldn’t lowering prices just because there’s a crisis be market manipulation? (This question does not imply that there isn’t already market manipulation)

Is it OPEC’s role to keep us awash in affordable product or just to do business as business does?

But the real issue here for me is that oil, if anything, is too cheap. It’s price isn’t reflective of its importance to humankind. Do people believe (not you Krogoth but people in general) that oil will be "cheap" right up to the day the last drops flow? Oil at $147/barrel was a great thing, that’s what finally led to lifestyle changes in the US that produced massive drop-offs in consumption. Only if it stays that high will the fire under our arses be hot enough to go down the path we need to go down.

Surely, Krogoth, you don’t believe OPEC should artificially lower prices so that "growth" can resume?

One more thing, one could argue that oil prices are already artifically low, whether that price be $60/barrel or $110/barrel. I think what happened was that the collective international financial elite realized that at almost $150/barrel the economic world would grind to a halt and (at least compared to our current way of life) chaos would be unleashed on a global scale, so they manipualted prices lower for the sake of their own continued existence.

What’s interesting is that now the collective international financial elite are engaging in their second symphony of manipulation through the "Paulson plan," "capital injections," and other cynically and euphemistically named programs.

It can’t be a good sign when the collective international financial elite engage in two such gargantuan efforts in the time span of only a few months. Their quiver is quickly running out of arrows me thinks.

  • Tue, Oct 21, 2008 - 03:45pm

    #10

    JMCSwan

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    Re: Incredulity, astonishment and outrage….

Don’t know who Black Swan is?

Ain’t seen anyone by that name. As I said:

Is your preference for ‘SAVING FACE’ from alleged ‘INSULTS’?; or for HONESTY?

Until I receive a reply, that you are INDEED INTERESTED IN HONESTY; you are welcome to continue SAVING FACE.  

I have much better and interesting things to do…..

Let me know when you make up your minds — if ever; it’s clear there are plenty of cowards, convinced they are ‘humans’ in this world; that would make the average sheep appear downright intelligent.

JMCSwan

 

 

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