URGENT: data needed to verify unvaxxed are the main casualties now in the US
So let’s take best case for our friendly shot as a NNTV. Assumptions:
You are vitamin D sufficient (50% reduction). You walk for 20 minutes per day (another 50% reduction). You are taking melatonin at night (30% reduction). You are 74 years old: IFR = 2.3%. The vax is 80% effective at preventing death, during its coverage period. This period lasts for 6 months. (Then you need a booster!) Attack rate (infection chance) in the US during that 6-month period: 5%.
1 / (0.023 x 0.8 x 0.05 x 0.7 x 0.5 x 0.5)
NNTV = 6211. We would need to vaccinate 6211 people just like you, to save 1 life.
Note also if you had a good BMI, you’d earn a further risk reduction.
Note also if the shot had a longer-term effect, NNTV would drop substantially.
Dave – I received an email from a relative citing the same information – this was from someone who had received both Covid shots and knew that I had chosen not to (which I interpreted as being a hint that I should get mine). My initial thought was that this ‘news’ sounded a lot like a propaganda initiative to scare the ‘unvaccinated’ into getting their shots.
The following articles are the opposite of what you are asking for ie. an analysis of death rates in countries before vs after they initiated their Covid shot rollouts, but may be of interest (glance at the charts in both articles):
A variety of countries:
Dr Peter McCullough says “about half the cases are vaccine failures”. Lots of interesting info. Well worth a half hour.
…“But I’ve chaired over two dozen data and safety monitoring boards, with committee work – we always work in teams – I have been a part of major programs where we’ve had to shut it down because of safety. I’ve done this before. I’ve done this type of work, I’ve chaired the data and safety monitoring boards for the National Institutes of Health – in fact, I’m doing so, right now. So I can tell you, as a doctor and this is my book of business. I’m in my fourth decade of doing this, I can tell you, this program should have been shut down in February, based on safety…Stew, it’s going to go down as the most dangerous biologic medicinal product roll-out in human history…
“The mechanism of action is clearly poisonous and then we know that the generation of the spike protein, itself, it damages local tissues, it’s not natural for a human cell to produce this foreign spike protein. We’ve never asked the human body to produce a foreign protein, ever. This is so radically new to do this and to do it on a mass scale and to, let alone express on the cell surface and have the body start to attack its own cells and then, let it circulate in the bloodstream, where we know it damages blood cells and causes blood clotting.
“So the mechanism of action in the human body is so alarmingly dangerous, if you were to draw this up on a chalkboard, two years ago and say, ‘You know, we’re gonna do this, we’re gonna give it a whirl, I don’t think we could even get a human volunteer to sign up for this. I don’t think I wold ever bring it forward as a product idea, even on the drawing board.”
Stew asks him if he wold ever recommend the vaccine for a child and he responds, “Under no circumstances…at this point in time, I really can’t recommend it to anybody…I think, at this point in time, it’s fair to warn against it…I’d say, take the risks with a natural infection right now and let’s treat early. We have EUA on monoclonal antibodies. They have just as good of an approval as the vaccines. We should give monoclonal antibody infusions…The vaccine, once it’s in the body, we can’t get it out and we don’t know how to manage these complications, some of which are fatal.”
When asked about the “shedding” phenomenon, Dr McCullough does think it’s real but he doesn’t think it persists much beyond 4 weeks, as the antibodies mop them up, which is the purpose of the vaccine.