UK Gov data doesn’t support the claims made for vaccine effectiveness/safety
A comparison of age adjusted all-cause mortality rates in England between vaccinated and unvaccinated
Perhaps a math nerd could point out if the results are meaningful given the limitations of the input data.
Once again, the vaccinated group has a much higher percentage of old and vulnerable people than the unvaccinated. Comparing these two groups is not an equal comparison. You need vaccinated versus unvaccinated comparisons broken down by groups with equal risk of viral illness.
One useful break down is comparing equal age groups on either side.
I do not think that you need a math nerd to validate or falsify this. Actually, most “mathly nerds” using p-values, use it in a wrong way. Says who? Says AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION. For everyone interested in truth, not just nerds like me, here are some links to articles one might one try to really understand, please be aware that you will never ever be able to convince someone who use this is a dogmatic fashion, that is, every medical researcher, every big pharma researcher, and all their fab boys and girls (link, link).
The data does have “age standardized” mortality rates FWIW.
hotsause: “Once again, the vaccinated group has a much higher percentage of old and vulnerable people than the unvaccinated. Comparing these two groups is not an equal comparison.”
There are more variables than that – younger people or anti-vaxxers are less likely to wear masks. So lifestyle is an important factor too – the young also socialise more…
I’ve had a chance to read the entire article. The data they show takes into account the different distributions of age groups in the two populations and adjusts for it. They explain this clearly.
The first chart is the most important and it’s interesting. It’s hard to say why the early vaccinated (mostly older people) did not have the regular seasonal increase in deaths in the winter. Maybe those were actual COVID-19 related deaths in the unvaccinated and the vaccines were working. There were a lot of recorded COVID-19 deaths at that time. As they say, some age ranges were nearly unrepresented in the vaccinated group at that time, so it’s not wise to draw conclusions.
In the spring they had a period where the vaccinated had a higher death rate and now both are roughly the same. That period in the spring does not look good for the vaccines, but I want to see the updated data extending to today. It ends on July 2 and there were barely any recorded COVID-19 deaths in May and June.
You could be fooled into drawing either conclusion about the vaccines from this. To me it’s not conclusive yet. Data from the past 3 months would help. I’d also like to see total mortality rates for those who got vaccinated this year versus those who did not.