Investing in precious metals 101

train wreck list

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  • Fri, Feb 12, 2010 - 02:51pm

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    On Our Own

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    train wreck list

OK>  We all know that the financial system is still very wobbly.  A train wreck waiting to happen?

We know that commercial real estate is heading for a cliff.

We know that the real estate market in general is still falling off the rails.

We know European countries are staggering and barely managing to hold each other up.

 

So, what other train wrecks are unfolding or immanent?  How many systemic collapses does it take to throw the whole thing into the wind?  And how long can they prop this zombie global economy up??  What other systems are failing?

  • Fri, Feb 12, 2010 - 04:23pm

    #2
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: train wreck list

[quote=On Our Own]

OK>  We all know that the financial system is still very wobbly.  A train wreck waiting to happen?

We know that commercial real estate is heading for a cliff.

We know that the real estate market in general is still falling off the rails.

We know European countries are staggering and barely managing to hold each other up.

 

So, what other train wrecks are unfolding or immanent?  How many systemic collapses does it take to throw the whole thing into the wind?  And how long can they prop this zombie global economy up??  What other systems are failing?

[/quote]CRE 3.5 trillion – tanking now. RE 1.5 trillion in alt-a’s and option arms, tanking this spring summer and fall. Almost every nation is insolvent. States, which are like Greece in the sense they can’t print money are heading south, CA and 2 other states make Greece look good.

We can’t sell bonds to cover debt. We (as in Bernake) counterfeit what they can’t off on investors and then they lie about who is buying it -“Other Households”, yeah right, the other households who aren’t on food stamps and unemployment. Sure Ben.

Last depression England went and pulled the entire world under. Don’t have a clue who or how, or even when – but I do know it WILL happen.

I’m sure they will steal 401ks and IRAs – estimates from 2-5 trillion there. That will “buy” them some time maybe.

 

  • Fri, Feb 12, 2010 - 05:22pm

    #3
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: train wreck list

I’ll add just one — it doesn’t affect me (now that I’m at peace w/the idea I’ll never see a dime from Social Security) but it will dump millions into economic misery (and pretty much nobody ever talks about it):

Unfunded/underfunded private & public pension liabilities.

Viva — Sager

  • Fri, Feb 12, 2010 - 09:32pm

    #4
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: train wreck list

Seems like in history economic hardship has coincided with geopolitical hurdles.  Aside from economic, you have some major geopolitical challenges that seem to be gaining momentum.

Iran developing nuclear weapons and how the US and Israel will react

Increasingly strained relations between China and the US

The continued threat of Al Qaeda and the Taliban to the US and Europe

North Korea developing nuclear weapons and how the US and South Korea will react

Venezuela taking a hostile stance toward the US and echoing the cries of Iran

We’ll see what happens next week, but strained ties between India and Pakistan as well as China and Pakistan

I was telling someone a while back, that I think we will look back on these times years from now and say World War 3 began after a series of conflicts as a fallout from at least 9/11.  Back in 2004 Bin Laden said that his intent was to cripple the US economically by drawing u into a war we couldn’t fund.  If you get a chance I highly suggest you read the link to see how badly we are really losing the war.  May get flamed for this, but Bin Laden is not an idiot.  Which makes me wonder who he is really in bed with since our politicians seem to be doing exactly what he intended them to do with 9/11.

Damn, kinda digressed from the topic.  But yeah, aside from the current economic conditions, I personally think the geopolitical threats are more concerning.  Nothing seems worse than being so broke we can’t buy up the raw materials to convert to weapons and defend ourselves when the scavengers come looking to pick the meat off of what’s left of the American taxpayer and our once prosperous nation.

  • Fri, Feb 12, 2010 - 10:51pm

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    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: train wreck list

Now add in the environmental stuff, which will be enormous and mostly irreversable. For instance, the death of algae critical to the worlds food cycle because of the acidification of the oceans. Recent studies have said it will take ten thousand years to reverse that acidification.

Depletion of the soils, genetic food modification…factory farming.  Our complete lack of self control when it comes to the use of natural resources. Overpopulation alone is enough to make me run screaming, even without mentioning or considering fuel issues.

 

  • Sat, Feb 13, 2010 - 06:28pm

    #6
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: train wreck list

OK I knew or now understand most of this,  what I am looking for is the immediate threats.  I see threats everywhere,  but the most dangerous to me is the ignorance and apathy.  But, I digress.

I still personally suspect we will not go down in a glorious bang of war, internally or externally.  I fear it will be an ongoing whimper of a slide into impoverished irrelevancy.   The population curves are not necessarily behaving as expected as some groups are ramping down their growth.  It is appalling to even think that someone like Bin Laden could pull off such a stunt,  but there does appear to have been a major confluence of stupidity and short-sightedness at work.   

How long can they prop this puppy up?   Anyone see the WSJ article last week talking about how the big wigs are prepping??  I’ll provide the link soon.

  • Thu, Feb 18, 2010 - 10:26am

    #7
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: train wreck list

Bond market. 

Last 30 year Treasury Auction had a bid to cover of around 2.5. We’re getting precariously close to a failed bond auction. 

When that happens, you’ll hear…Greece? Where’s Greece? 

  • Thu, Feb 18, 2010 - 11:08am

    #8
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: train wreck list

[quote=SagerXX]Unfunded/underfunded private & public pension liabilities.[/quote]

This is also my pick.  I fully anticipate the legislative branch allowing States to claim something along the lines of Chapter 11 bankruptcy, allowing them to shed collective bargaining obligations.

  • Thu, Feb 18, 2010 - 11:18am

    #9
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: train wreck list

[quote=Davos]

I’m sure they will steal 401ks and IRAs – estimates from 2-5 trillion there. That will “buy” them some time maybe.

[/quote]

Were the markets to collapse then I am certain that the US government will confiscate all 401K’s and IRA’s under the guise of “Protecting America’s Retirement Act of 2010”. 

So warm and fuzzy sounding, isn’t it? “We’re only doing this to help you”. 

I’m betting that they’ll roll all pensions, 401Ks, and IRA’s into “safe” *cough* Treasury Bills, the proceeds of which will be promptly spent, likely through additional bailouts, and replaced with intragovernmental bonds, that is, IOUs.

The real kick in the privates will be that after stealing our savings, we’ll have to pay the private banks interest on those T-bills and bonds. 

And the NFL/NHL/NBA crowd, the Oprah crowd, and the sitcom crowd will love them for it. 

  • Thu, Feb 18, 2010 - 11:20am

    #10
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: train wreck list

So far I count 6 terrorists on this page. 

Dissent is not allowed. 

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