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Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

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  • Tue, May 11, 2010 - 12:56am

    #11
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    Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

It finally dawns on everyone that the US and all of Europe is bankrupt and the balls starts dropping.  The big boys can’t pay their bills,  other countries stop playing nice with us.  They demand COD delivery.  We offer funny money,  they refuse.  Things get tight here.  Everything we know about follows.  Here and in Europe.  What happens in China and India and Africa??

  • Tue, May 11, 2010 - 01:15am

    #12
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    Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

From XRayMike’s post:

Also, it’s hard to convince people we’re in the early stages of collapse when things are still pretty good. Unemployment is around 10% (officially), and foreclosures are spreading like kudzu, but most Americans can still afford to feed, clothe and house themselves. Only when we have trouble meeting our basic needs will we begin to seriously question and fundamentally reform our society. And I believe, passionately, that we need to begin this process ASAP, while there are still enough fossil fuels, water and other natural resources to support 6.8 billion people. So my message is this: Don’t wait until the $#!+ hits the fan, because by then it could be too late.

—- Mickey Foley

+1.  Ain’t that the truth?

  • Tue, May 11, 2010 - 01:34am

    #13
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    Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

[quote=land2341]

It finally dawns on everyone that the US and all of Europe is bankrupt and the balls starts dropping.  The big boys can’t pay their bills,  other countries stop playing nice with us.  They demand COD delivery.  We offer funny money,  they refuse.  Things get tight here.  Everything we know about follows.  Here and in Europe.  What happens in China and India and Africa??

[/quote]

 

What happens in China and India and Africa??

They return to subsistance living and are as happy as a lark. That capitalist/industrialist thing was a drag anyway, what with all the social turmoil it caused. The meek inherit the Earth.

 

  • Tue, May 11, 2010 - 01:48am

    #14
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    Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

Having lived in India I can give you a reasonable idea of what will happen there. You have no idea of environmental destruction if you have never been there. Many millions will die. India is the poster child for the green revolution. It is barely able to feed itself with massive amounts of fossil fuel inputs. It is running out of water for irrigation. The Punjab which is India’s breadbasket relies on an aquifer. The current usage is 145% of recharge.

Fortunately many people still live in the countryside and they can farm with wooden implements and bullocks.

Energy wise they have virtually no oil or gas and rely on Iran for most of it. War with Iran by the US or Israel would be devastating for India.

As for China and Africa I would assume the same scenario. Massive die off of human beings. My guess is about 4.5 billion or so will leave feet first. Carrying capacity of the Earth without cheap energy is abut 1.5 billion. The survivors will not be living in deserts as there will be no way to pump water to them. Communities will center around areas where resources are easily extracted . Of course maybe I am wrong.

V

  • Tue, May 11, 2010 - 02:06am

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    Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

 

In preparation for the future I bought a crop farm: however, after reading the article I realised that there are many more levels to go thru to acquire the skills needed to survive. I am still at the stage of identification of the skills. 

I think that among the top ones lies the level of physical fitness. 

The brief inventory I have done tells me right away that to become effective I will have to seriously pursue continuous education from now til it happens.

My God What a challenge ahead.  Thank you for the eye openning article.

  • Tue, May 11, 2010 - 03:16am

    #16
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    Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

AVOIDING COLLAPSE

April 2010

The best books on social and economic collapse are from Tainter and Quigley.  They are the best since they both provide systemic models of collapse that can apply across all historical instances.  For example, Tainter sees civilization as  problem solving system that collapses when it begins to succumb to diseconomies of complexity.  Quigley sees civilization as a patchwork of wealth/solution creation engines that fail when they become self-serving institutions (organizations that perpetuate the problem they were built to solve) that fight renewal.  Better yet, the models they propose are not mutually exclusive. They compliment each other, Tainter’s model anticipates increasing turbulence (the crisis of 2008) and Quigley’s anticipates systemic predation (like the financial oligarchy).

However, as good as these theoretical models are, they miss one critical insight.  It occurred to me while reading these works in conjunction with Elinor Ostrom’s work on self-managed resource commons (everything from fisheries to irrigation systems).  The common finding is that every system is unique at the local level.  No two irrigation systems are the same.  No two fisheries are the same, etc.  Further, the problems they represent are all rapidly changing, in that what’s required to effectively manage them is divergent.    

This implies that complex societies, over time, develop a yawning mismatch between the local and the general.  More formally:

The need for evolutionary advances at the local level will always outstrip the pace of evolutionary change at the center.  When the mismatch grows too large, the entire system collapses.

I suspect this applies not only to governance (politics, bureaucracy and legal systems) but also to markets, in that the centralization of markets works against the development of local wealth (scale requirements, predatory behavior, etc.).

Of course, this is also very similar to the problem I saw in John Boyd’s decision making models (see “Open Decision Making” for more).   It also implies that a workable solution to this problem (as well as the drivers of collapse outlined by Tainter and Quigley) is to return sovereignty and autonomy to the local, to the extent possible, to enable massively parallel decision making.  The only way I can envision this working is through the establishment of resilient communities (aka, a semi-autonomous polis) that is economically self-sufficient, able to protect itself, and highly democratic.

http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2010/04/avoiding-collapse.html

  • Tue, May 11, 2010 - 04:06pm

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    Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihjBCrYD3N8

  • Tue, May 11, 2010 - 05:06pm

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    Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

Thanks Mike I feel much better now

V

  • Tue, May 11, 2010 - 07:11pm

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    Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

Collapsenet.com apparently doesn’t exist yet.  Do I have the wrong url or isn’t the site up and running yet?

Doug

  • Tue, May 11, 2010 - 07:46pm

    #20
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    Re: Timeline/Stages for Collapse of our Way of Life

Collapsenet.com apparently doesn’t exist yet.  Do I have the wrong url or isn’t the site up and running yet?

Doug

 

 

It is set up. I urge everyone to subcribe to get prescient information of the world around you. 

Go here:

http://www.youtube.com/user/collapsenet#p/a/u/0/ihjBCrYD3N8

You must set up a YouTube account first to subscribe. It’s free.

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