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There Will Be Oil

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  • Sat, Sep 17, 2011 - 01:10pm

    #1
    KugsCheese

    KugsCheese

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    There Will Be Oil

online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904060604576572552998674340.html

Rebuttals?   I think the important question is: there will be oil but at what price?   It is hard to tell what a true price for oil is since the FED is busy devaluing the dollar, but what about $2.80 – $3.00?

  • Sat, Sep 17, 2011 - 04:10pm

    #2

    Johnny Oxygen

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    Re: There will be oil

I think this topic has been beat to death here at CM.

This article provides no proof just belief.

I hope he’s right and everything will be just fine but I don’t "believe" so.

  • Sat, Sep 17, 2011 - 06:22pm

    #3
    sundarb

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    Can we split the belief portion?

[quote=Johnny Oxygen]

I think this topic has been beat to death here at CM.

This article provides no proof just belief.

I hope he’s right and everything will be just fine but I don’t "believe" so.

[/quote]

I’m not sure where is the belief portion of the article. Could you point to where he is simply basing his statements on faith? There are a lot of facts (such as oil added from existing reserves through improved technologies) and opinions (Hubbert having a static view of the world for example). 

Now – I’m not saying that we should continue our way of ‘exorbitant privilege’ and I’m all for sustainable and ‘scaled-down’ living. But it helps to keep these facts and opinions in perspective towards future planning.

  • Sat, Sep 17, 2011 - 06:24pm

    #4

    jturbo68

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    Cambridge Energy Associates

Cambridge Energy Associates –  It seems like these guys are often behind the No Peak Oil Puff pieces.

These guys dont understand the relentless nature of exponential growth. The last paragraph of the article mentions Hubards receding oil plateau … Yet we are living right in the middle of the plateau .. since 2006.

 John

  • Sat, Sep 17, 2011 - 06:30pm

    #5
    ewilkerson

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    Johnny, I have to agree.  I

Johnny, I have to agree.  I wrote a letter to my local paper a while back about the end of cheap oil.  They printed it, as they have done on several about the current situation.  The response on my cheap oil I received from one person was that they expected their President to make sure they had enough cheap gas.  Needless to say I had to respond with more facts.  People just don’t or don’t want to believe it.

I watch the political and business discussions and look in disbelief.  I have this surreal feeling as to why am I one of the few who at least understtand a good bit of it.

Ernest

  • Sat, Sep 17, 2011 - 07:44pm

    #6

    jturbo68

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    There Will Be Oil

The Distressing thing about a  Peak Oil piece like this in the WSJ is that it will be read and interpreted as the solution in readers minds.  When they next come up against Peak Oil, they will already thave some basic perception that it is bunk.

This article bothers me because they cleverly do a hit piece on Hubbard by painting him into the Planned Economy mould…. Scientists should run the economy.  Which points him as anti-free market.  For most this then means that we can start to hate and fear him.  He is anti-american.

Then we dredge up the big oil finds and new technologies that will expand production in a manner that seems impressive.  Ignoring the massive investments that are going to be hard to justify in a shaky financial situation and also ignoring the declining quality (and EROEI) of the resource.

The general reader does not understand that a million barrels of Tar Sands or Oil Shale is in no way as easy or energy rich as a million barrels of the conventional oil that we grew up on.  They will surely get the message that technology will once again save us.

 

 

  • Sat, Sep 17, 2011 - 07:58pm

    #7

    Johnny Oxygen

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    sundarb wrote:Johnny Oxygen

[quote=sundarb]

[quote=Johnny Oxygen]

I think this topic has been beat to death here at CM.

This article provides no proof just belief.

I hope he’s right and everything will be just fine but I don’t "believe" so.

[/quote]

I’m not sure where is the belief portion of the article. Could you point to where he is simply basing his statements on faith? There are a lot of facts (such as oil added from existing reserves through improved technologies) and opinions (Hubbert having a static view of the world for example). 

Now – I’m not saying that we should continue our way of ‘exorbitant privilege’ and I’m all for sustainable and ‘scaled-down’ living. But it helps to keep these facts and opinions in perspective towards future planning.

[/quote]

If we can increase existing reserves by so much then why isn’t it being done?  "Improved technologies" implies faith in future technologies that will boost exisiting ‘reserves’. But the additional 125 billion barrels he mentions is nothing compared to world consumption.

I hear this a lot from the non-peak oil folks that there is so many million or billion barrels here or there but its always on the horizon or just around the corner. When you look at what IS being pulled out of the ground annually it is a different story.

The more people there are on the planet the more oil you will need. The beer analogy is a good one. Hey if you think we have plenty of oil until some new wonder energy source is found then more power to you. I know you will probably sleep better at night than I do but it doesn’t make it fact.

  • Sat, Sep 17, 2011 - 10:03pm

    #8
    KugsCheese

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    Johnny Oxygen wrote:sundarb

[quote=Johnny Oxygen]

[quote=sundarb]

[quote=Johnny Oxygen]

I think this topic has been beat to death here at CM.

This article provides no proof just belief.

I hope he’s right and everything will be just fine but I don’t "believe" so.

[/quote]

I’m not sure where is the belief portion of the article. Could you point to where he is simply basing his statements on faith? There are a lot of facts (such as oil added from existing reserves through improved technologies) and opinions (Hubbert having a static view of the world for example). 

Now – I’m not saying that we should continue our way of ‘exorbitant privilege’ and I’m all for sustainable and ‘scaled-down’ living. But it helps to keep these facts and opinions in perspective towards future planning.

[/quote]

If we can increase existing reserves by so much then why isn’t it being done?  "Improved technologies" implies faith in future technologies that will boost exisiting ‘reserves’. But the additional 125 billion barrels he mentions is nothing compared to world consumption.

I hear this a lot from the non-peak oil folks that there is so many million or billion barrels here or there but its always on the horizon or just around the corner. When you look at what IS being pulled out of the ground annually it is a different story.

The more people there are on the planet the more oil you will need. The beer analogy is a good one. Hey if you think we have plenty of oil until some new wonder energy source is found then more power to you. I know you will probably sleep better at night than I do but it doesn’t make it fact.

[/quote]

 

It is being done, but it is more expensive to process shale and drill in a mile of water.   That is why There Will Be Oil but at what price?   If the FED would just work on stable inflation maybe one could see where prices are going.   We need stable prices to understand oil prices in order to provide incentives to reform regulations for more Nuke power as no other power form can support this many people according the lifestyle commonly accepted.

  • Sat, Sep 17, 2011 - 10:16pm

    #9

    Damnthematrix

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    scraping the bottom of the barrel….

"Improved Technology" = scraping the bottom of the barrel….

The important thing to understand about PO, and clearly whoever wrote this piece of crap doesn’t, is the the green and blue chart in Chris’ Chapter 17 piece in the CC.

Energy Return on Energy Invested………  NOTHING else matters.

  • Sun, Sep 18, 2011 - 02:05am

    #10
    sundarb

    sundarb

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    Ah I see it.

[quote=Johnny Oxygen]

If we can increase existing reserves by so much then why isn’t it being done? 

[/quote]

There could be lots of reasons including but not limited to – geopolitical conflict, demand being met at today’s rate of pumping oil out of the ground, price manipulation to keep oil high in USD, recessionary fears which will kill demand etc. Note: I’m not saying Peak Oil is false, just saying that there could be other good enough reasons that don’t require the increasing of existing reserves. 

[quote=Johnny Oxygen]

"Improved technologies" implies faith in future technologies that will boost exisiting ‘reserves’. But the additional 125 billion barrels he mentions is nothing compared to world consumption.

[/quote]

Demand is right now around 86-87 million barrels a day and projected to increase up to 107 million barrels by 2030. 125 billion translates to 125 * 1000 million, with 107 million a day – that translates to just 3.2 yrs of supply! Certainly not enough. I see the faith point now.

Thanks Johnny.

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