There is no hockey stick

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  • Mon, Apr 12, 2010 - 07:24pm

    #11
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: There is no hockey stick

…..maybe also watch the Al Bartlett videos on Youtube (called “the most important video you will ever see”), Al does a great job of addressing these issues nicely and demonstrates man’s inability to understand the exponential function

Anyone up for rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic??

  • Mon, Apr 12, 2010 - 09:35pm

    #12
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    Re: There is no hockey stick

[quote=britinbe]

…..maybe also watch the Al Bartlett videos on Youtube (called “the most important video you will ever see”), Al does a great job of addressing these issues nicely and demonstrates man’s inability to understand the exponential function

Anyone up for rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic??

[/quote]

+1 britinbe,

Some of the above comments are a classic demonstration of Albert Bartletts quote you mention. Mathematics is really a tool and can be used as such if it is recognized for what it is. OR   you can pick up  hammer and try and use the claw end to drive a nail ………and claim that the darn tool just won’t work no matter how many time you try and strike the nail. 

All I can say is keep swingin!  Sooner or later it will come to you.

Coop

  • Mon, Apr 12, 2010 - 10:51pm

    #13
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    The Most Important Video You’ll Ever See!

Britnbe, ckessel,

Everyone on this site that are new need to grasp the message in these films. This was the very beginning of my journey of understanding to the importance of the Exponential Function …

~ VF ~

  • Fri, Apr 16, 2010 - 12:24am

    #14
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: There is no hockey stick

Viuxcarre must have already grasped the concept of exponential growth as he clearly stated that as long as the “economy grows” at the same rate or faster than the “current national debt” we are not getting in worse shape.

That would be that the rate of the national debt to GDP would be constant or dropping.

Question is if the “economy” can grow at an exponential rate without taking on more debt and without having exponentially increasing population (that helps expand GDP).

I am not sure I have an answer to that question. At first I was about to answer, but the more I weight into the question the more uncertain I get about the answer. As allways oppinions are welcome.

 

  • Mon, May 10, 2010 - 07:56pm

    #15
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    Re: There is no hockey stick

People seem to miss the important point that the data series used by CM tend to have something in common, because they exist in the real world: they are all bound by real limits.  This is what makes the displayed curves legitimate. 

Were it just theoretical math there would be no basis for displaying the series like they are, because there would be no reason to suggest arbitrary boundaries in the y-axis.  But in the real world, things do have maximums.  There is a maximum amount of debt we can have in relation to our ability to produce, there is a maximum population the planet can hold, there is a maximum amount of oil that can be drilled.  You can argue about the boundaries he chooses for those maximums, but the key point is those maximums exist whether we are able to accurately estimate them or not.

  • Mon, Jun 21, 2010 - 09:05am

    #16
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    Re: There is no hockey stick

redpill

 

ludwig wittgenstien would have a field day   this is nonsense   , as  something cannot be an A and not an A that is a contradiction and not coherant to logic of any sort.

first you state that as things exist in the real world thus they are bound by real limits ( be they absolute or not i presume)

then you say were it just theoretical maths( which it is not )  we would not have to place the axis in or with boundries( so we do )  as there would be no arbirty boundries to suggest( that there are what figures these arbitry boundries are is debatable)

then you suggest that there are boundries ( as you say now contradict the above statement,im  not sure if you count them as arbitry or not ) in the real world and  suggest that as they exist they must have limits or bounries( again contrary to what is suggested before)

so the notion that there is no hockey stick is wrong based on  your contradiction, as if there are limits be that knowable or not or calculatable or not then the rational of compounding is real within the real world

what may be said is that the figures for calculating the graphs are wrong or pessamistic ( mathusian , although he wasnt far wrong an industrial evolution stoped his predictions  )  ( and im not so sure they are )

 

ps even in theoretic maths there are boundries so again contrary to what is

 

  • Sat, Apr 16, 2011 - 02:57pm

    #17
    SPAM_amberu

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    Hockey

Interesting ideas, I know sports are not just playing around, but such complicated math for some hockey pool problem. Maybe some technicians think of these things but how do you get from a mathematician to a hockey technician.

  • Wed, Mar 14, 2012 - 10:17am

    #18
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    How to Save My Property Tax?

hiiii

your post is nice there is no hockey stick

  • Tue, Jul 23, 2013 - 09:56am

    #19
    VilmaGGerber

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    You can buy tix for avalanche

You can buy tix for avalanche at discount rate online from http://www.pepsicentertickets.com

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