Investing in precious metals 101

The World in 100 Years

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  • Sat, Jul 28, 2018 - 07:13pm

    #21
    Little Pond

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    Historical examples

There are lots of historical examples of relatively advanced societies that underwent serious collapse, not quickly followed by a discovery of a cheaper energy source, and yet not everyone died. The Maya built no more grand temples and had no more kings, but they continued on at a lower population level, practicing a similar but less intensive agriculture, still speaking but not writing their language. The Easter Islanders (though there were many fewer of them) still knew how to put up a statue, but no longer bothered, because they needed to use their labor differently in their depleted environment. There’s now some evidence that the Yanomamo, at first thought to represent “man in his primitive state,” were the remnant of a great civilization which planted the Amazon. Then again, the Greenland Norse all died, and the Ik of Uganda maybe wish they had (or maybe not. Anthropology isn’t a hard science.) If I were trying to write fiction about the next hundred years, I would read Jared Diamond’s Collapse, Charles Mann’s 1491, and Dimitry Orlov’s 5 Stages of Collapse before I started, just to get a feel for the different ways it can go.

  • Sun, Jul 29, 2018 - 12:44am

    #22
    gyurash

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    100 years of decline

Hi Phil,

If you have not read them yet, I recommend 1491 and 1493, by Charles Mann.

Then take a 3 day vacation at Colonial Williamsburg. Leave the car and all gatgets, including time keepers, at home. Arive by taxi at the gate. Have no aggenda other than to explore life in colonial times on foot for 3 days.

A lot can happen in the next 100 years, but we can make some reasonable assumptions:

The well documented uncurable fungus will arrive at some time in Asia and wipe out all the rubber tree plantations. Little to no natural vulcanized rubber – no O rings or hoses. Ergo, no modern engines, and especially a huge reduction in high-tech electronics because of the complex chemical processes used. Lube oil? Very hard to get and maybe worth it’s weight in gold. Sure there is some oil left around and a few refineries might still have a little output, if they haven’t been fought over to destruction. But oil is far too valuable to BURN!  Aluminum, also very hard to get. Aluminum can not be made in a forge, you need an oxegen free arc furnace. Hope you can keep those hydro electric dams running. They need maintenance and replacement parts. Got a source for those? Ice storm take your power lines down? Replacement conductive wire is probably being canablized from the network so the service area is shrinking. Flying may be limited to certain one way Hang Glider trips on rickety cloth and bamboo contraptions.International shipping is all done by wood clipper ships, providing you can find the old-growth logs to build them with. Iron ships have all long since rusted for lack of copper based paint. Rusting steel and rebar reinforced concrete structures and bridges are death traps in the process of collapsing, so survivors live in small compact villages much like old towns in southern Europe. Hope you have the manpower to build aquaducts so you have some water pressure without electric pumps. You might see wooden windmills instead. Population levels will be much smaller than today, and climate changes will put them in different places.

Why am I so pessimistic? A complex society contracts by becoming simpler. As interdependencies fail, the items dependent on them cease to function. The thing you thought was a need becomes a want that you can’t fullfill, so you let it go and make do without. Millions of people currently live in areas of essental desert. Their water up to now has come from highly complex systems for distribution, sometimes from hundreds of miles away. That is unlikely to last. Indeed, the likelyhood of these things going sour in the next 100 years is really high. The internet and electronics 100 years from now? I doubt it.

The nice thing about writing future fiction is it doen’t have to try and be real. Have fun with your story.

  • Sun, Jul 29, 2018 - 02:13am

    #23
    greendoc

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    Nuclear disaster already baked in.

My husband lived and worked at the HNR/Hanford Nuclear Reservation as a research scientist in Eastern Washington State back in the 90s.  Long enough to know he did not want to live their long term, or anywhere downwind. 

HNR is where the military made all the plutonium needed for our nuclear weapons during WW2 and into the 1970s.  Everyone was in such a rush to win the arms race, not a lot of attention was paid to waste disposal.  HNR is proabbly one of the most toxic places on earth as a result.  There are estiated 53 million gallons of radioactive waste buried in tanks near the Columbia river.  These tanks need constant monitering, they burp flammable hydrogen gas on a regular basis.  Without competent management and oversight, they could explode.  As it is, they are leaking and the radioactive plume is making its way to the Columbia.  

So we dont need a nuclear war or a terrorist dirty bomb to experience a catastrophic radioactive event. We just need to let the time clock on HAnford to run down without any oversight (or the tremndous amount of high tech interventions/energy input) to prevent the inevitable. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanford_Site

and here is scary article about how Trump’s DOE is taking care of HNR.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/07/department-of-energy-risks-micha

  • Sun, Jul 29, 2018 - 02:19am

    #24
    robie robinson

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    Gyurash?

That scenario doesn’t sound in the least depressing to me living in the 1700’s is only poor to those addicted to modernity. In one of Kuntzlers novels an older gal in a knitting circle said she preferred life in the post collapse era?

  • Sun, Jul 29, 2018 - 04:51am

    #25

    Barnbuilder

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    Try Jim Kunstler

I have read one of his books but not all. I do follow his articles weekly.  I think his “World made by hand” trilogy sounds feasable. In my own opinion I would count on a lot less tech, less central control, most probably a complete breakdown of all supply chains leading to a very local world as in times past.  Basic skills to keep fed, housed, and warm will be the most important.  Getting to that point will quite likely be very chaotic and very probably violent for most folks.  We can have some successes as Chris has preached for but they will be few and far between.  I wish Robie Robinson had an open house teaching sessions to show us what we are all going to need to know.  I know it has been a awhile since the peak oil idea was considered probable in the general public if ever, but I personally believe that will be the game killer and there are no long term tech solutions to avoid that end of cheap, easy and available energy. With that said, as long as the neocons and warmongers refrain from the letting the missiles fly some of us or are progeny will still be around living as human beings and scraping away to make it through the next day.  Good luck with the book Phil, great subject.

  • Sun, Jul 29, 2018 - 12:30pm

    #26
    robie robinson

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    Society

will be greatly pained by the improbability of our 20/21st century life styles working in the 22nd. 

 

  • Sun, Jul 29, 2018 - 01:04pm

    #27

    Chris Martenson

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    Here’s one for you

Seems to be a hot topic lately…with plenty of entrants into the field:

William T. Vollmann has been writing big, iconoclastic novels for 30 years, but he’s never imagined a dystopia as terrifying as the one he conjures in two immense new nonfiction books about the damage we’re doing to the environment.

“No Immediate Danger” and “No Good Alternative” are addressed to readers who will be born a few centuries from now.

As envisioned by Vollmann, theirs is a barely habitable planet. They flee from “methane fireballs and murderous hurricanes,” live underground during blistering summers and subsist on “recycled urine.” What “you from the future, who understandably despise us,” should know, he says, is that by 2018, climate change was an obvious emergency. Unfortunately, we just didn’t do enough about it.

https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Carbon-Ideologies-by-William-T-Vollm

  • Sun, Jul 29, 2018 - 01:42pm   (Reply to #23)

    #28

    Rector

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    Trump’s DOE

Things have been a soup sandwich at the DOE long before Trump starting personally running the orgaization on a day-to-day basis. . .

Rector

  • Sun, Jul 29, 2018 - 01:42pm   (Reply to #23)

    #29

    Rector

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    Trump’s DOE

Things have been a soup sandwich at the DOE long before Trump starting personally running the orgaization on a day-to-day basis. . .

Rector

  • Sun, Jul 29, 2018 - 02:58pm   (Reply to #19)

    #30

    ckessel

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    The outcome

Phil,

I like your approach and I think that Permaculture as a strategy and lifestyle definately is a hopeful approach to our predicament. Going forward, I find the most happiness in doing the things that would improve the situation which does include an ongoing effort to communcate the facts of the matter coupled with actions that can be taken to care for our earthship.

No matter the outcome, being the change you wish to see, doing the things that help change our species approach to our assumed squatters rights on this planet and having a life to live is what my nutshell is all about.

I’ll be interested to read your book and have it on my shelf!

Coop

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