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The definitive U.S. Dollar Rally Thread

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  • Thu, May 13, 2010 - 08:01pm

    #51
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: The definitive U.S. Dollar Rally Thread

I thought “Tyler” was doing a pretty darned good job in his early days. I suspect he figured out the Alex Jones approach gets more traffic and sells more advertising…

Erik

 

  • Thu, May 13, 2010 - 08:24pm

    #52
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: The definitive U.S. Dollar Rally Thread

Erik,

Thanks for the response.  Regarding the counterparty risk and tailspin if one giant fails:  What I did mean to say is that the risk is no where near 1.6 quadrillion.  The vast majority of derivatives is contained and balanced and under controllable leverage. Many derivatives are very short term in nature and very close to the money.  Its not made up at all to say the Q number is absurd.  I mispoke when I said no risk…fair enough.  But, the direction and intent of the arguement holds.

Of course, there are LEH and BSCs still out there, and I dont mean to argue that the amount of derivatives is safe – its a big issue.  However, its certainly starts with a B or a T and not a Q.  Further, there are ways to stop the tail spin created by a major default.  To disregard any solutions that have been used in the past seems a little naive.

JoeM – Some points I make time and again:  Much of our debt we owe to ourselves and can and likely will change with a single vote:  Social Security, Medicade, Medicare…etc.  If you reduce those payouts by a moderate amount then the “crisis” point moves many years down the road.  Also, the story is not complete without projecting some level of income from taxes that is fair (make your own assessments).

Long before we default and our currency fails there will be more and more taxes on the wealthy.  Remember that the highest level of incomes in the US used to be taxed dramatically higher than they are now…and for a long time.  Here is an interesting link:  http://www.truthandpolitics.org/top-rates.php   I cant verify at this time this sites accuracy (top on a google search only)…but its at least directionally accurate.  Further, before we have a currency crisis dont be surprised if the government taxes wealth rather than income and sales.  In other words, there are so many alternatives to buy time that the US is just not that close to a currency crisis. 

Last – remember that the US debt and currency is backed by the full faith and credit of our government…which is backed by we the people.  We the people have over 55 Trillion in assets (approx).  So, the US full balance sheet, considering all cash flows in and out and the net worth of the people who back the debt, and the net worth of the government assets and land = not life ending.

None of this is an argument to say I am bullish or happy and positive.  The argument is that while the US economy is in the crapper and things (I think) will get worse, we are no where near a currency crisis here.  We have years to go imo.

 

 

  • Thu, May 13, 2010 - 08:44pm

    #53
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: The definitive U.S. Dollar Rally Thread

With all respect: I look at ZeroHedge these days as beacon. My take: “Tyler Durden” et al see something almost everyone else can’t see yet, on Monday we entered into a currency crisis that is global in scope. It is, the first time I am aware of, that every currency is headed to zip at the same time.

Call me nuts. Call me anything you want. When the world is up to their ankles in gas and someone takes out a matchbook I’d yell fire before they so much as opened the matchbook.

Time will prove me wrong (I hope) or right (I hope not).

Take care.

  • Thu, May 13, 2010 - 08:47pm

    #54
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    Re: The definitive U.S. Dollar Rally Thread

Davos….not calling you nuts.  If you call me wrong, I want to know specifically why – solely for the purpose of learning.  If someone argues specifically against my statements with facts and solid thinking, I want to open my mind and change.  If they use false or misleading statements, I want to alert them to make sure they are clear, and also to help them out if they are using bad data to make their judgements.

If a couple members point out the fact that Tyler was kicked out of the financial industry for insider trading (a form of stealing) and you still hold him as a becon of light, well, then I think we have a vast difference of perspective on many more issues than just debt and currency risks.

You take care as well.

I am editing my comment to respond to the German Weimar deal.  Remember Germany lost a war, was invaded and lost control of their most valuable revenue providing land during the time when they were at a tipping point, had key heads of state assasinated, was one of the worlds weakest military powers at the time, and was not the worlds reserve currency.  I could go on.  Weimar to the US is like Rickets to Davos!

 

  • Thu, May 13, 2010 - 08:49pm

    #55
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    Re: The definitive U.S. Dollar Rally Thread

[quote=rickets]

Davos….not calling you nuts.  If you call me wrong, I want to know specifically why – solely for the purpose of learning.  If someone argues specifically against my statements with facts and solid thinking, I want to open my mind and change.  If they use false or misleading statements, I want to alert them to make sure they are clear, and also to help them out if they are using bad data to make their judgements.

If a couple members point out the fact that Tyler was kicked out of the financial industry for insider trading (a form of stealing) and you still hold him as a becon of light, well, then I think we have a vast difference of perspective on many more issues than just debt and currency risks.

You take care as well.

[/quote]I’ll take Tyler over Bernanke, Paulson, Rubin, Llyod “Doing God’s work” Bankfean, Greenspan, Geithner, JPMC, GS, the mob and the rest. “He” may not be a saint, but he does know “his” stuff and he is front running something that I don’t see enough front running of. I’m not calling you wrong, in fact I hope you are right. I’m just telling you I do NOT share any of your perspectives. Even using a conservative figure of 200 trillion for the banks in the US as disclosed by the government for off balance sheet derivatives – I know that is enough to take them down. I know what derivatives did in 2008, so I don’t buy into what you say about them. Take care.

  • Thu, May 13, 2010 - 08:57pm

    #56
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    Re: The definitive U.S. Dollar Rally Thread

Guys,

I don’t want to get in the middle of this, but “Tyler Durden” is 40 different people writing under the same name. 1/40th of “Him” got into hot water for insider trading.

http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/blog/tyler-durden-exposed

Agree with “him”, don’t agree, whatever, but since we seem to be sticklers for the facts here…

  • Thu, May 13, 2010 - 09:10pm

    #57
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    Re: The definitive U.S. Dollar Rally Thread

[quote=Ready]

Guys,

I don’t want to get in the middle of this, but “Tyler Durden” is 40 different people writing under the same name. 1/40th of “Him” got into hot water for insider trading.

http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/blog/tyler-durden-exposed

Agree with “him”, don’t agree, whatever, but since we seem to be sticklers for the facts here…

[/quote]

Whether he is one person or 40 is immaterial and completely irrelevant. 

Nothing more than a red herring IMO. 

 

One more thing, and I am not defending Tyler but I do so much hate crap logic. That “proof” is nothing more than an unsubstantiated raw claim made by a blogger. There’s nothing at all there to substantiate what he claims to be fact. 

Should I take him for his word? I don’t take anyone for their word. Show me the beef. 

  • Thu, May 13, 2010 - 09:12pm

    #58
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    Re: The definitive U.S. Dollar Rally Thread

[quote=Erik T.]

I thought “Tyler” was doing a pretty darned good job in his early days. I suspect he figured out the Alex Jones approach gets more traffic and sells more advertising…

Erik

 

[/quote]

He has a cult-like following among many. That’s scary. A lot of weirdos a few sammiches short of a picnic, if ya’ know what I mean. 

  • Thu, May 13, 2010 - 09:16pm

    #59
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    Re: The definitive U.S. Dollar Rally Thread

[quote=Morpheus]

Whether he is one person or 40 is immaterial and completely irrelevant. 

Nothing more than a red herring IMO. 

 [/quote]

Sorry Morpheus, but that statement makes it seem like you haven’t read the thread.

If you take a shot at someone because he did something wrong, shouldn’t we know if that accusation is accurate? If 1 writer out of 40 was convicted of some wrongdoing, it does not mean the other 39 are also convicts. We don’t know what Dan has written, or if he even still does.

 

It is not immaterial.

 

As I said, it is OK to not believe “him” but to discredit all of ZeroHedge as was done by Rickets because of the actions of Dan is not a strong argument, based on what appears to be less than all the facts.

  • Thu, May 13, 2010 - 09:35pm

    #61
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    Re: The definitive U.S. Dollar Rally Thread

Ready. I think Tyler is 60% spot on, 40% reckless for the record. I like Erik’s explanation of him. And to add to it, I think he extrapolates too far based on the information at hand. And the inferences that he makes invariably tend to be sensationalist and imaginative. 

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