The Definitive GOLD’s Near-Term Outlook Thread

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  • Tue, Apr 28, 2009 - 11:41pm

    #21
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    Re: The Definitive GOLD’s Near-Term Outlook Thread

Sam:

I procrastinated for the longest before I could decide to buy some physical gold. I had never owned any bullion before. Finally, after overcoming my initial fears, I placed a small order with Kitco. During the month it took for my order to arrive, my fears multiplied. I fully expected to receive a package of rocks with a "SUCKER!" label attached. But no, after what seemed an eternity, our little rural post office phoned and asked us to please stop by and sign for a registered mail package.

My wife and I eagerly tore open the package. NOT! We hacked away at it with scissors, a screwdriver and were considering a crowbar before we finally succeeded. When your package arrives, have a saw, tin snips, an assortment of crowbars and perhaps a jackhammer on standby.

Finally we got it open, to find our order wrapped in opaque plastic with various "DO NOT OPEN HERE — OPEN HERE!" messages on it. This reminded me of a mattress tag message: "Warning: Do not remove this tag under penalty of law!" I always wanted to rip one of those tags off, fully expecting to hear sirens in the distance when I did. But I never did — and I digress….

We "poured" the meager contents of our little package on to the dining room table. I would like to say that it landed with a resounding "thud", but it was more like the sound of a pin dropping. My wife said "How cute" as she picked up a little 100 gram bar. It came with an assay certificate and was stamped with a serial number. By then I was starting to realize that — hey — I was the owner of some genuine gold bullion. Okay, bullionette, maybe. It seemed little bigger than a commemorative postage stamp and my initial thought was that I’ve seen heavier hummingbirds. Hint: It is not suitable for a paperweight unless the fan is turned to the lowest setting.

Then came the problem of where to keep our "stash". For security reasons I won’t get into that here, but we do live in the country and gold does not respond to a metal detector…. Heh, heh. You’d have a tough time finding it. I can just picture my grandkids — if I ever have any — muttering to themselves as they pore over an ancient set of instructions: "Let’s see now, fifty paces to northwest; turn right and step 25 paces to the northeast…"

My next order was a bit larger and it arrived fairly promptly. It occurred to me that perhaps Kitco viewed my initial order with a curiosity so mild that it bordered on contempt. Apparently my subsequent order cleared the "Oh, bother!" hurdle and they filled it promptly. Anyway, I’m the owner of a tiny stash of what I hope is gold. Any day now I fully expect to read a newspaper headling along these lines: "SCIENTIFIC BREAKTHROUGH; GOLD FROM SEAWATER! GOLD PRICE CRASHES IN WORLD MARKETS!’

Hope I posted this in the right thread, but I could not find a "nutcase posts" thread.

 

  • Wed, Apr 29, 2009 - 12:22am

    #22
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    Re: The Definitive GOLD’s Near-Term Outlook Thread

[quote=BSV]

Sam:

I procrastinated for the longest before I could decide to buy some physical gold. I had never owned any bullion before. Finally, after overcoming my initial fears, I placed a small order with Kitco. During the month it took for my order to arrive, my fears multiplied. I fully expected to receive a package of rocks with a "SUCKER!" label attached. But no, after what seemed an eternity, our little rural post office phoned and asked us to please stop by and sign for a registered mail package.

My wife and I eagerly tore open the package. NOT! We hacked away at it with scissors, a screwdriver and were considering a crowbar before we finally succeeded. When your package arrives, have a saw, tin snips, an assortment of crowbars and perhaps a jackhammer on standby.

Finally we got it open, to find our order wrapped in opaque plastic with various "DO NOT OPEN HERE — OPEN HERE!" messages on it. This reminded me of a mattress tag message: "Warning: Do not remove this tag under penalty of law!" I always wanted to rip one of those tags off, fully expecting to hear sirens in the distance when I did. But I never did — and I digress….

We "poured" the meager contents of our little package on to the dining room table. I would like to say that it landed with a resounding "thud", but it was more like the sound of a pin dropping. My wife said "How cute" as she picked up a little 100 gram bar. It came with an assay certificate and was stamped with a serial number. By then I was starting to realize that — hey — I was the owner of some genuine gold bullion. Okay, bullionette, maybe. It seemed little bigger than a commemorative postage stamp and my initial thought was that I’ve seen heavier hummingbirds. Hint: It is not suitable for a paperweight unless the fan is turned to the lowest setting.

Then came the problem of where to keep our "stash". For security reasons I won’t get into that here, but we do live in the country and gold does not respond to a metal detector…. Heh, heh. You’d have a tough time finding it. I can just picture my grandkids — if I ever have any — muttering to themselves as they pore over an ancient set of instructions: "Let’s see now, fifty paces to northwest; turn right and step 25 paces to the northeast…"

My next order was a bit larger and it arrived fairly promptly. It occurred to me that perhaps Kitco viewed my initial order with a curiosity so mild that it bordered on contempt. Apparently my subsequent order cleared the "Oh, bother!" hurdle and they filled it promptly. Anyway, I’m the owner of a tiny stash of what I hope is gold. Any day now I fully expect to read a newspaper headling along these lines: "SCIENTIFIC BREAKTHROUGH; GOLD FROM SEAWATER! GOLD PRICE CRASHES IN WORLD MARKETS!’

Hope I posted this in the right thread, but I could not find a "nutcase posts" thread.

 

[/quote]

BSV,

I don’t know about anyone else, but I thoroughly enjoyed your very descriptive accounting of your Kitco experience!

"bullionette" – hmmm, you might have coined a new word. I’ll be looking in the 2010 edition of Funk & Wagnalls to see if it made the cut.

Actually, your story is very useful for the rest of us and I hope mine turns out to be the same. The more of us who post our experiences, the better it will be for those who may still be sitting on the fence. Gosh knows I spent enough time sitting there – I think the rail has left a permanent mark on my butt!

BTW, I hope your prediction doesn’t come true – at least until I have time to gaze upon my "massive" stock of gold for a week or two!

  • Wed, Apr 29, 2009 - 01:09am

    #23
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    Re: The Definitive GOLD’s Near-Term Outlook Thread

[quote=BSV]gold does not respond to a metal detector[/quote]

Seriously, is that a fact?

  • Wed, Apr 29, 2009 - 01:24am

    #24
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    Re: The Definitive GOLD’s Near-Term Outlook Thread

Yes. To satisfy yourself on this point, do a little Google research C1oudfire. That’s one of the fascinating characteristics of gold.

  • Wed, Apr 29, 2009 - 01:30am

    #25
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    Re: The Definitive GOLD’s Near-Term Outlook Thread

[quote=c1oudfire]

[quote=BSV]gold does not respond to a metal detector[/quote]

Seriously, is that a fact?

[/quote]

 

Cloud and BSV,

No that is NOT a fact. Gold does sound off quite loudly on a metal detector. In fact metal detecting for both coins and gold nuggets is done by lots of people. I am one of them.

Do a Google search on Minelab, Fisher Gold Bug 2, Garrret, White metal detectors. You will find more than you can read.

 

Ken

 

  • Wed, Apr 29, 2009 - 01:44am

    #26
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    Re: The Definitive GOLD’s Near-Term Outlook Thread

Well, then. I stand corrected. Sorry about that. But you still won’t find my gold, heh, heh.

  • Wed, Apr 29, 2009 - 01:49am

    #27
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    Re: The Definitive GOLD’s Near-Term Outlook Thread

This surprised me so I Googled it. I learned that there are metal detectors that can supposedly find gold, but it’s not so simple. I suggest that you do a Google search and read the "hits" to learn more.

  • Wed, Apr 29, 2009 - 01:50am

    #28
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    Re: The Definitive GOLD’s Near-Term Outlook Thread

We know you buried it 1 foot under ground in the corner of the north and west intersecting fence posts.

 

SG

  • Wed, Apr 29, 2009 - 02:03am

    #29
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    Re: The Definitive GOLD’s Near-Term Outlook Thread

Hehe, mines in a fire safe. I guess you could blow it up if you wanted too.

I enjoyed your narrative as well BSV.

I went through Apmex. Don’t know if anyone here has had experience with them or not? The mark-up over spot seemed pretty reasonable. I placed the order and it was received in less than a week. Everything was kosher. Its a nice comfort to know that its there if I need it.

 

  • Wed, Apr 29, 2009 - 02:15am

    #30
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    Re: The Definitive GOLD’s Near-Term Outlook Thread

[quote=JAG]

[quote=SamLinder]

With the dollar almost guaranteed to become worthless in the future, what would drive the price of PM’s down?

[/quote]

I know this is going to sound outrageous, but Pretcher thinks the dollar is going up in the intermediate term (1-2 years) because of massive credit deflation. Of course the Fed will try to counter this destruction of "money" with quantitative easing, but Pretcher thinks they will fail for various reasons. Overall, I can’t really argue with the ubiquitous arguments that the dollar will collapse and PM’s will soar, they make sense. But I think Pretcher’s perspective is that these events might be farther off than most people realize, and that there might be a better opportunity in the coming years to "invest" in gold.

Its just another possibility to consider.

[/quote]

I would advise everybody make up their own minds about every investment decision.  While ‘experts’ can help nudge a decision, I still trust my own logic the most.

I will also note that Prechter has been calling for a gold crash since before the day I first bought some in 2002.  At that time he was calling for it to go to $200.  Ditto in 2003 when it rose.  He reiterated the same call when gold crossed $400.  I think at $500 as well but I’d have to check my notes.

Sooner or later he’ll be right, I suppose, but I am certainly glad I did not heed his calls back then.

Lastly, the printing press has a mighty strong track record when placed in the hands of a reckless and determined government.

 

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