The Definitive GOLD’s Near-Term Outlook Thread

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  • Tue, Apr 28, 2009 - 07:26pm

    #11
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    Re: The Definitive GOLD’s Near-Term Outlook Thread

[quote=JAG]

I know this is going to sound outrageous, but Pretcher thinks the dollar is going up in the intermediate term (1-2 years) because of massive credit deflation.

[/quote]

It doesn’t sound outrageous to me.  Europe and Asia are in really bad shape, arguably worse off than the US.  It’s not a stretch for me to imagine that the dollar may remain the safe haven of choice for a couple more years.  I wouldn’t place my bets there, but I certainly wouldn’t rule it out either.

Where I disagree is with the notion that gold can’t rise right along with the dollar.  That already happened earlier this year, as I pointed out in my previous post.  I’m not certain this will happen, of course, but I think the argument that gold will fall because the dollar will stay strong is not sound on its own.

  • Tue, Apr 28, 2009 - 07:39pm

    #12
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    Re: The Definitive GOLD’s Near-Term Outlook Thread

Hi Erik,

Instead of starting a new thread because the old one became inconvenient for you, why not just change your setting to display "newest" post first instead of "oldest"?  

 I had the same problem with the Definitive Firearms Thread and applied that simple solution.

Just a thought.

 

 

  • Tue, Apr 28, 2009 - 08:00pm

    #13
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    Re: The Definitive GOLD’s Near-Term Outlook Thread

Screwed by success, that’s what it was. They have it in for me! I start a thread, it gets too many posts so they stab me in the back! ARGGH. Et tu, Erik!

 

SG

  • Tue, Apr 28, 2009 - 08:38pm

    #14
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    Re: The Definitive GOLD’s Near-Term Outlook Thread

Oops. I inadvertently posted this in the old thread. Sorry.

In my recent experience, physical gold seems to be a bit easier (i.e., quicker) to obtain in recent days. Some time ago I decided on an appropriate percentage of gold in my investments. It was "paper gold", (iShares Comex Gold Trust and the SPDR gold trust – "GLD"). Then I read the prospectus and one word ran through my thoughts: SELL!

So, mom not having raised a total fool, I have been systematically converting my paper gold into physical gold. After some research and thought, I chose Kitco in Montreal. They have so far been reliable. My initial order seemingly took three forevers to arrive, but it did arrive in good order. My next order was in my hands within days after placing the order. Service is courteous. Bullion bars come with an assay certificate. The little one ounce bars are sealed in plastic and mine have the Credit Suisse logo stamped on them. Kitco has been using Via Mat in New York as their shipping agent. My orders came in tamper resistant plastic bags, shipped by registered, insured mail.

I decided against bullion coins because they command such a premium over the spot price. There are trade-offs involved so each of us must decide on the merits.

  • Tue, Apr 28, 2009 - 10:07pm

    #15
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    Re: The Definitive GOLD’s Near-Term Outlook Thread

 I have a question that I’ve been thinking about for about a week now and was hoping y’all could add some insight?

 I’ve hear arguments that silver has a much higher upside potential than gold. This is based on a few things: (1) The Gold/Silver price ration has historically been 15/1 and now it’s around 70/1. (2) Silver is a metal used in industry so the reserves become depleted from uses which makes it hard to recover (i.e. silver in electronics manufacturing). (3) The above-ground reserves of silver a getting smaller whereas gold is getting larger.  If I remember correctly, the numbers I heard said something like 5 metric tones of gold in 1980 and 10 metric tones of silver. In 2006 there were 10 of gold and 1 of silver. 
 
My question is, if it’s true that there is much less silver above ground than 20 years ago, then why hasn’t silver increased in worth like gold?  What happened to the 15/1 ratio? (Yes, the accuracy of the statistics I heard could be the problem but I wouldn’t think there has actually been 5X more silver mined than gold in the last 20 years.)  I’m thinking that the answer might have something to do with gold increasing in value due to the cultural aspect of holding gold in countries like India where average family incomes have been increasing.
 
Obviously I’d like to get a handle on this to see if silver is positioned for a large increase in the event of a decreasing (or collapsing) dollar.

 

  • Tue, Apr 28, 2009 - 10:43pm

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    Re: The Definitive GOLD’s Near-Term Outlook Thread

BSV,

Thanks for your post – it finally got me to move off dead center. Based on your comments, I checked out Kitco and noted that their 1 oz gold bars were indeed priced better than 1 oz gold coins. I had been so focused on gold coins that I didn’t really pay attention to any alternatives.

Anyway, today I placed an order with Kitco for two 1 oz gold bars with a sell price of $919.30 each. I decided to start small in order to see how the process went and to get a sense of timing for delivery. I’ll post again when the goods actually arrive. If all goes well, I’ll probably buy more.

Sell price at my local store today is $948.00 for 1 oz gold Maple Leaf coins (Kitco price is $963.00). However, with shipping ($30-), insurance ($7.35), and wire transfer cost ($30-), my net cost was $953.00 per 1 oz bar – still better than Kitco’s coin price.

The advantage is that I don’t have to drive into downtown Portland and worry about getting mugged going into, or out of, the retail store.

Purchasing more bars next time will also reduce my net cost per bar.

  • Tue, Apr 28, 2009 - 10:46pm

    #17
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    Re: The Definitive GOLD’s Near-Term Outlook Thread

And …you can have all of your fillings replaced with gold!

Way to go, Sam, now you’re set for the Collapse!

 

SG

  • Tue, Apr 28, 2009 - 11:03pm

    #18
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    Re: The Definitive GOLD’s Near-Term Outlook Thread

[quote=capesurvivor]

And …you can have all of your fillings replaced with gold!

Way to go, Sam, now you’re set for the Collapse!

 

SG

[/quote]

You haven’t looked in my mouth, SG. That’s my ultimate reserve account (bought when gold was much cheaper)! 

  • Tue, Apr 28, 2009 - 11:08pm

    #19
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    Re: The Definitive GOLD’s Near-Term Outlook Thread

[quote=Chris Kresser]

Where I disagree is with the notion that gold can’t rise right along with the dollar.  That already happened earlier this year, as I pointed out in my previous post.  I’m not certain this will happen, of course, but I think the argument that gold will fall because the dollar will stay strong is not sound on its own.

[/quote]

Chris, 

Good point and I agree with your statement. Thanks for the information. I’m going to have to give Mish a little more attention. So much information and so little time….Thanks again

  • Tue, Apr 28, 2009 - 11:25pm

    #20
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    Re: The Definitive GOLD’s Near-Term Outlook Thread

Keep in mind, eight major currencies fell vs. gold over the last 8 years.

If I could find that table I’d post it.

 

SG

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