The Definitive Global Climate Change (aka Global Warming) Thread — General Discussion and Questions
This SkepticalScience article may be of interest to those wondering about how climate projections by the IPCC have done.
"global climate models generally simulate global temperatures that compare well with observations over climate timescales … The 1990–2012 data have been shown to be consistent with the [1990 IPCC report] projections, and not consistent with zero trend from 1990 … the trend in globally-averaged surface temperatures falls within the range of the previous IPCC projections."
Mark & Tony,
Thank you for making the effort to reply to my question, that helps a lot for sure.
I also spent time yesterday on the NASA site to get a better understanding.
There is a version of the video from NASA on Youtube with audio, that explains it well:
it is a leap of faith to think we know certainly what the climate will do in the future or that we can do anything to reverse it.
If anyone requires absolute mathematical certainty to do anything then they will never do anything in their lives period.
There is no 'reversing' what we have done with the climate. What is at issue is whether or not we will ever slow down the rate at which we are accelerating climate change? Things do not get better from here on out but we could stop making them worse.
As previously mentioned, I will be speaking at this year's Age of Limits conference (http://ageoflimits.org/) that is coming up at the end of next week.
Whether or not you want to meet with me in person, I can highly recommend the conference to members and frequenters of Peak Prosperity since I attended the Age of Limits conference as a participant last year. This isn't a climate conference but a well rounded treatment of the various limitations that human societies are being faced with. Other speakers will include Dr. Dennis Meadows (Limits to Growth), Gail Tverberg, John Michael Greer, Dmitry Orlov, Albert Bates, Dr. Carolyn Baker and KMO. While there are talks and discussions afterward there is also the chance to interact in more in depth and informal ways with the speakers and other conference attendees over several days as the venue precludes other distractions from the matter at hand.
I met several people who frequent this thread there last year and hope to met even more of you there this year.
I second Mark’s recommendation of AoL.
Another new scary report of just how bad conditions are this year.
Eric, it's also a leap of faith to believe that there will be no consequences to our behaviour.
Climate change was here long before us and ‘worse’ or ‘better’. There is no guarantee it will do anything ‘worse’ or ‘better’ in the future no matter what.
Following on what Jasonw posted,
California is primed for a very severe fire season if great care is not taken.
The whole of the western US has been experiencing greater fire danger and larger fires over the last three decades. California though is extreme risk this year given the extensive drought, amount of burnable fuel and the lack of prospects for significant rain anytime soon. Risk does not guarantee fire but it sure tilts the odds.