Stockholm and London – Same Infection Rate
A lot of focus has been given on sweden’s NPI or lack of and their course of the pandemic.
It seems that though they took completely different actions – the path of epidemic has been similar to other countries who took greater measures against transmission.
The belief was that sweden quickly must have burned the virus through its community causing herd immunity. However, testing now shows that the rates of infection are the same for london and stockholm. Meaning that they did not reach heard immunity. Either they have just better practices in hygiene that reduce transmission to the same as other countries in some lockdown or people are restricting and taking actions voluntarily regardless of state imposed restrictions.
Bottom line, NO herd Immunity.. Take the brakes off lockdown will not fix anything, However, people may still restrict actions without state imposed requirements and common hygienic practices obviously should be used regardless.
The belief was that sweden quickly must have burned the virus through its community causing herd immunity. However, testing now shows that the rates of infection are the same for london and stockholm. Meaning that they did not reach heard immunity.
Either they both didn’t reach herd immunity, or they both did reach herd immunity.
What the two outcomes pretty do clearly suggest is that lockdowns don’t reduce infections. All that economic damage, to no end.
I was just thinking about this – that it is theoretically possible.
Just based on my experience of a low grade fever and other symptoms for 1-2 days. though have been extremely cautious and not out of home in over month – no one else in home sick.. and very careful with groceries etc. — It is possible many people have gotten this and didnt know it. or chalked it up to something else..
lets say that for every diagnosed case – there is at least one case where someone was overtly ill but did not seek medical attention and weathered it at home. Lets also assume there is one case for these two cases where someone dismissed their mild symptoms as something else. and then one more person for each of those , who was truly asymptomatic. – Then you would have 100% infection rate – when the confirmed cases are only 25%.
So, it could be possible. But since , I believe the study was done using antibody testing , you would think it would be much higher than 17% positive… even with bad quality tests , that seems awfully low. though it seems mild cases do not develop much of antibody response. Its like it does not cause pathology in some people. So, I guess its possible that one possible conclusion is that every country has reached this. But my logic is finding it hard to accept as plausible.
I don’t think it’s lack of herd immunity, or, “no herd immunity”, but rather the path that is taken to get there. The contention is that herd immunity may come much sooner than would otherwise be expected due to a fairly high level of existing and effective T-cell immunity to similar corona viruses. This thread from Dr. James Todaro is endlessly interesting;