Statistics after a lockdown

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  • Sun, Mar 22, 2020 - 04:11pm



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    Statistics after a lockdown

Question: from time of infection, how long before death. This is important because it is an indication of the extent and duration of the contagion.

“We used data from the World Health Organization (WHO) (1) to calculate crude estimates of the case-fatality risk on March 5, 2020, for 4 populations: China; China, excluding Hubei Province; a group of 82 countries, territories, and areas; and passengers and crew of a cruise ship (Table). However, given the critical need to consider time lags to death when calculating case-fatality risk (3), we used time lags from a recent study from China (4). Yang et al. (4) reported that the median time from symptom onset to radiological confirmation of pneumonia was 5 days (interquartile range [IQR] 3–7 days); from symptom onset to intensive care unit (ICU) admission was 11 days (IQR 7–14 days); and from ICU admission to death was 7 days (IQR 3–11 days). Therefore, a median of 13 days passed from pneumonia confirmation to death ([11–5] + 7 = 13).”

Note the numbers are averages
Symptoms, 5 days
Symptoms to pneumonia 5 days
Symptoms to ICU, 11 days
ICU to death, 7 days.

So 23 days from exposure (5+11+7).

Northern Italy (Lombardy)

First lockdown, February 21.  Adding 23 days, March 15, which had 1587 news cases, 252 deaths. However, this was not the peak for Lombardy. On March 21, 3251 new cases, 546 deaths.

The Northern Italy example indicates that cases and deaths will increase for four weeks after a lockdown. FYI, on March 22, new cases decreased to 1691, deaths to 361.

For employers and parents with children, you can expect the lockdowns to continue for a minimum of four weeks. Some experts are urging six to eight weeks. What will be the effect on the economy?

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