statistical likelyhood of infection?
Many people in my surroundings doubt my statement that I have had Covid in November. They are not convinced by my ivermectine succes story, because they think I made it up.
I got mild symptoms 5 days after very possible exposure. Due to anxiety, feeling unwell and some brain fog, I skipped testing, for which I had to retrieve my forgotten digital ID password.
What is the statistical chance I did NOT have covid???
It is hard to know. Do you really believe there is very little flu this year?
Did your symptoms match Covid? They are different than the flu, and the flu’s incubation period is shorter than 5 days. There is also the HPIV virus (cough) that gives similar symptoms. However, it seems to have been really knocked back this year with everyone being so careful.
If you did not have runny nose and congestion then it was probably Covid. HPIV seems to have congestion and runny nose as the main symptoms along with productive cough.
I had something a couple months ago and the symptoms fit Covid almost to a T. My test was negative, however I had already treated it with IVM by then and the symptoms had mostly disappeared.
So I conclude that I very likely had Covid, especially since I had and still have to some extent lingering very mild symptoms consistent with the “long haulers”.
I mean, if the symptoms best fit Covid, and there is Covid in your area, then what else would it be???
Well since you demonstrated some COVID confusion, it is likely. I actually believe this is greater and more common symptom than most others. Many can dismiss it as something else, which is what most people chalk up Covid symptoms too if they are fairly mild. So, I give you a about 50/50. But only you can truly know. Doesn’t matter what others think, does it?
It is still important math. I don’t want to boast or lie. An important task here is to inform. At the moment, I can say I probably, or likely had covid. These things become important when talking to medical professionals.
An unofficial way to describe probabilities (IPCC reports):
Virtually certain ………..99-100% probability
Very likely ……………..90-100% probability
Likely ………………….66-100% probability
About as likely as not ……33 to 66% probability
Unlikely ………………..0-33% probability
Very unlikely ……………0-10% probability
Exceptionally unlikely ……0-1% probability
Not being a statistician, I still would like to know, for accuracy and truthfulness, which term to use.