Some Observations about the Flu Event

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  • Thu, Apr 30, 2009 - 08:22pm

    #11
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    Re: Some Observations about the Flu Event

I wonder how many people die of AIDS each year?

  • Thu, Apr 30, 2009 - 10:54pm

    #12
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    Re: Some Observations about the Flu Event

I’m a little curious as to the incubation period with this strain? Anybody heard anything official? I understand that the New York school kids went to Mexico during spring break…..wasn’t that about 3 or more weeks ago. If so, how long has the virus been in this country already? Maybe nothing….just an interesting question.

  • Thu, Apr 30, 2009 - 11:43pm

    #13
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    Re: Some Observations about the Flu Event

[quote=r101958]

I’m a little curious as to the incubation period with this strain? Anybody heard anything official? I understand that the New York school kids went to Mexico during spring break…..wasn’t that about 3 or more weeks ago. If so, how long has the virus been in this country already? Maybe nothing….just an interesting question.

[/quote]

I heard it was about 3 days.

  • Fri, May 01, 2009 - 06:51am

    #14
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    Re: Some Observations about the Flu Event

Hi All,

The main point that has been emphasized in the Asian MSM has been the fact that this bug is communicable during its incubation period, which can range from 3 to 7 days. The point being that this means containment is basically impossible. You can’t screen people at borders, airports, etc. effectively because they are contagious for several days before they begin to develop recognizable symptoms.

It is for these reasons [that the Asian newspapers have been reporting that] everyone is freaking out. They figure that it could already have been communicated to millions upon millions of people, and if so we wouldn’t even know that yet. By the time they develop symptoms, it will be too late for quarantine to be effective because they’ll already have communicated the disease to many others.

I too was shocked when this morning’s South China Morning Post was ablaze with headlines saying pandemic was imminent, but that’s what they are now saying here. Suddenly last night and today I see many people on the street and in the subway here in Hong Kong wearing masks.

Erik

 

  • Fri, May 01, 2009 - 11:09am

    #15
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    Re: Some Observations about the Flu Event

 Hello:

I’m following it closely, don’t know which way it is going to go. 

I know, and please don’t peg me as rascist, from reading "The Great Influenza" that certain nationalities were gene resistant and others gene succeptable, they think becuase way, way back some regions got the flu like that before. Because of that I made the misstake of thinking that people in Mexico were gene succeptable and in America they were more resistant.

Then I watched this. Dr. Henry Niman (Video A(H1N1) Google Tracking)

Seems like we are lucky and the cases are low becuase of the statistics/numbers. This Phd is saying that Mexico had 200,000 cases (and soon so shall we). 200,000 cases? Where was that in the "media"? Makes sense, the first victim was in the hospital about 10 times and they didn’t know what it was. In 1918 they thought it was a light flu not a pandemic. And I have to believe the 200,000 cases as Mexico is "shutting down" http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b58601e2-35a2-11de-a997-00144feabdc0.html

The part about it spreading at airports makes sense as I am a former airline pilot. I don’t know if masks/gloves work but this took me by surprise. Seems to me if one worker is sick it would at least help contain it. http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/04/30/border-agents-airport-workers-told-wear-surgical-masks/ 

So in short, I hope this thing fizzles out instead of mutating into a serious pandemic.

 

 

 

  • Fri, May 01, 2009 - 11:57am

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    Re: Some Observations about the Flu Event

I am not sure is this is the right post for this like but has any one seen this..

H1N1 virus’ not affected by tamiflu?? growing resistance to treatments.

from about 2 months ago…

 http://www.medpagetoday.com/InfectiousDisease/URItheFlu/13072
 

  • Fri, May 01, 2009 - 12:20pm

    #17
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    Re: Some Observations about the Flu Event

[quote=Davos]

 Hello:

I’m following it closely, don’t know which way it is going to go. 

I know, and please don’t peg me as rascist, from reading "The Great Influenza" that certain nationalities were gene resistant and others gene succeptable, they think becuase way, way back some regions got the flu like that before. Because of that I made the misstake of thinking that people in Mexico were gene succeptable and in America they were more resistant.

Then I watched this. Dr. Henry Niman (Video A(H1N1) Google Tracking)

Seems like we are lucky and the cases are low becuase of the statistics/numbers. This Phd is saying that Mexico had 200,000 cases (and soon so shall we). 200,000 cases? Where was that in the "media"? Makes sense, the first victim was in the hospital about 10 times and they didn’t know what it was. In 1918 they thought it was a light flu not a pandemic. And I have to believe the 200,000 cases as Mexico is "shutting down" http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b58601e2-35a2-11de-a997-00144feabdc0.html

The part about it spreading at airports makes sense as I am a former airline pilot. I don’t know if masks/gloves work but this took me by surprise. Seems to me if one worker is sick it would at least help contain it. http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/04/30/border-agents-airport-workers-told-wear-surgical-masks/ 

So in short, I hope this thing fizzles out instead of mutating into a serious pandemic.

 

 

 

[/quote]

 

I have thought there must be a *lot* more cases just in terms of statistically spreading it to so many different countries via visitors.  It makes sense to me that there are probably 200k cases, but still, if only 1000-2000 of them have turned bad enough for them to call them "suspected cases"  I’m still just not that scared.  That’d be 1% of infected people have it bad enough to be noticable, you know?  That’s not even the number of deaths. Yeah, it *could* mutuate, but my understanding is that in most first world countries viruses mutate to more mild cases because things are harder to spread where there’s good sanitation.  That is, if you’re vomiting into the toilet instead of the street, wash your hands because you have water available for that, etc, it makes more evolutionary sense for viruses to become more mild so people are more likely to go out and infect others (because they don’t know they have it).  I wish I had the link to the study on this…

One percent of the world is still a LOT of people, but it’s only 10 percent (if there’s 2000 "cases" and 200 have died – which seems to still be speculation at this point…) of that that was suspected deaths or something, right?

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