Since 2006 (with a break in the middle for school) I have worked for US companies who import raw materials from China, India, Brazil and Europe to sell to US manufacturers. Tonight I was offered a job working directly for a Chinese exporter who has a US company set up to do distribution in the states and no one to run their sales. For all intents and purposes the job is the same as what I have been doing. The incentive structure is a little different but should work out to be a 10-20% net gain over what I am earning currently, plus I would have the opportunity to hire and manage a team which is a new and interesting challenge. What I can’t figure out for the life of me is which is more resilient in the face of the future we discuss here. I spend as much free time and money as I have trying to pay down debts and build a resilient homestead on our three acres as well as engaging with our local community. That won’t change either way. If our house were paid off I would be more inclined to start a local farm stand type business (my pipe dream) that might be of more value in an unsure future (despite lower income potential now), but as it stands I’m trying to earn as much as I can now to pay off what we owe on the place.
On the one hand my current job is working for a US company, but we are fully dependent on global supply chains, US consumption and the credit-worthiness of our customers. Working for a Chinese company would have all the same dependencies PLUS the political risks given increasing tensions (south china sea, Russia/China bilateral trade etc). I have known the people who own the Chinese company since 2007 and have done business with them so I don’t question their ethics like I would other Chinese firms. I do question the relationship between China and the US. However a change in that would impact my current role about as much as it would the one I was offered tonight. If the world economic regime falls apart as I suspect it will over the next 1-5 years neither job would be viable, but in that event maybe it would be better to have better developed international contacts?? If Chinese dollars start rushing back to the US it would be better to be part of that wave than in the way of it….Alternatively if US/China relations fall apart my current company could still trade with other parts of the world whereas the new job may cease to exist.
I’m very confused….anyone in the community have any thoughts on the subject?
I think you are overthinking it Tall. Let's see… it's a pay increase.. working in the same industry (using your existing contacts/ecosystem), AND you get to have a management role. Getting management experience is a significant addition to your resume long term.. and something that you might find really satisfying (I do). Best of luck in your decision making process…
I would stay away from the Chinese firm. This is an issue I have followed for some time and my opinion is that we can have a hot war with China within 5 years.
Tall, if you are learning new things at a new job you are growing. Ask yourself "what would you do if you had no fear"?
Good advice from all. Ommm could you point me to some resources that led you to that conclusion? I've thought about that too but I keep hearing the old "we can't go to war with China because we're mutually dependent" argument. How would something like that play out?
I see time as the deciding factor. Since the jobs are similar and have similar risk in a SHTF situation, I would go for the greater monetary gain today and shorten your time to achieve your long term goals. I think the factor working against all of us is time. We are living in a "grace period" and we all need to get on with the program.
Time is short right now but I'll see what I can put together later in terms of a few specifics. In general terms, examining Chinese history, philosophy, statements by military leaders, growing nationalism, intelligence documents, diplomatic releases, military industry trends and developments, resource needs (including fresh water and arable land), emerging energy resource conflicts in the South China Sea, war cycles, US treaty obligations and bellicosity, and the global trend towards WW3 would all lead me to that conclusion. We are mutually dependent until there is no longer a need for that dependency, at least from the perspective of one of the participants in the relationship. We can ask ourselves, for example, is China moving toward or away from the USD? Are they moving towards or away from expanding into consumer markets other than the US? Are they moving towards or away from forming closer ties and alliances with countries that have historically been belligerent towards the US? Are they becoming more or less confident about not fearing US retaliation if they move against Taiwan. Etc., etc. History is rife with mutually dependent relationships being truncated by war.