Singapore data at 82% wax rate
Although the shape of the chart looks compelling for the stated case, I’d not put too much weight on this for a couple of reasons:
- The absolute numbers in Singapore we’re looking at are so low (population adjusted) that any small effect will come out amplified
- Vaccination (according to the same data source) has been ramping pretty steadily there for most of the year, but we don’t really see matching correlation in cases / deaths which just spiked relatively recently
So there could be other factors at play e.g. they changed other rules around distancing, social gathering, masks, travel opening up, new strains, a localized outbreak etc. So something to look into further, but doesn’t look like the proverbial “mic drop”.
On a related note I was looking at the AE (adverse event) reporting around the vaccines in Singapore (as well as Sweden, Switzerland etc. that tend to be more independent and less politicized in their stats). The percentage of AE / doses reported is low everywhere. Has anyone found official data anywhere to the contrary?
Sensemaking around all this is so challenging.
Those arguing in favor of vaccination would point out that the vaccine will (!?) be reducing symptoms and death, and therefore it is a success.
I looked up all cause mortality which stopped just before the sudden August hump, then excess mortality which I found hard to read and didn’t seem to be unusual – idk, someone smarter will have to comment!
Not that I consider myself smart btw, but check out Worldometer for Singapore:
There one can find also an overview of the deaths. As mentioned earlier, the absolute numbers are small, and we do not know the vaxx status.
Better focus on Israel and Great Britain: both countries have a high vaxx rate, and both countries see an increade in death. Both countries also report an increase in corona deaths among vaxxed. See for example page 22/23 of this report.
You can find the break down of cases here: https://www.moh.gov.sg/covid-19
While this is pretty detailed, they are still leaving a few questions unanswered (e.g. comorbidities, hospitalizations by vaccination status, etc.)
The data suggests that vaccinated people are less likely to contract the virus, but they are far from ‘safe’. Also, the vast majority of cases (vaccinated and unvaccinated) are asymptomatic or mild (>98%).
As sharpninth guessed, the spike is at least partially driven by changes in rules around distancing. You need to bear in mind though that people in Singapore have a lot of faith in the authorities and the message that’s been blasted out on all channels was, “If you’re vaccinated, you’re safe”. So, when the rules were relaxed [for the vaccinated only], people flocked into restaurants and bars.
As far as scale is concerned, Singapore is obviously a lot smaller than other countries, but with a population of ~6m + ‘foreign workers’, labelled ‘dormitory residents’ in the data, it’s comparable to some smaller European countries.
I hope this helps.