Seeking advice: Choosing between these bad investment alternatives….

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  • Fri, Jan 30, 2009 - 06:17pm

    #11

    machinehead

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    Posts: 241

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    Re: Seeking advice: Choosing between these bad investment …

Glen12,

According to the fact sheet for the ‘I’ fund, its
foreign currency exposure is unhedged. So if the US dollar weakens, the
fund’s NAV will go up, even with the EAFE index unchanged.

This
is potentially interesting if you have doubts about the dollar. The
fund is about half in Europe, 22 percent in the UK, and 20 percent in
Japan. Thus it provides some dividend income, some potential for
capital gains if global stocks bottom out, and some diversification out
of the US dollar.

http://www.tsp.gov/rates/fundsheet-ifund.pdf

It
doesn’t have to be an all-or-nothing proposition. You could put 20, 30
or 50 percent of assets in the ‘I’ fund to adjust your risk exposure
and damp volatility.

  • Fri, Jan 30, 2009 - 07:54pm

    #12
    glen12

    glen12

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    Re: Seeking advice: Choosing between these bad investment …

Great insights from all. 

 It’s interesting how the mind works.  After taking an absolute beating on investments that I feel certain will – in the fullness of time – come back, it’s very psychologically difficult to put ‘at risk’ money that is in an investment that I am equally sure will fall in the fullness of time.  It’s a time when walking the walk – and possibily taking an additional short to medium term beating – is pretty tough to do.

  • Sun, Feb 08, 2009 - 03:17am

    #13
    strabes

    strabes

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    Re: Seeking advice: Choosing between these bad investment …

If you want to keep funds in the 401k, G is the only option.  G.  G.  G.  

There is a risk that the IRS will seize 401ks and IRAs in 2010 as the full weight of the depression sets in.  I don’t know how to quantify that risk, but it’s non-zero.  So keep your money in G for now, but if smart money starts believing that the IRS will do this, move quickly to liquidate the account, pay the withdrawal penalty, and buy gold.   

The notion of diversifying globally is like diversifying across industries.  That’s just retail brokerage gibberish for "put all your money at risk" because all industries are correlated, all countries are correlated.  What are they correlated to?  The global banking system, i.e. the debt and derivates mess.  That system is crashing.  All countries, all industries.  Do not follow the advice to get diversification away from the $.  The $ will remain the reserve currency until the debt deflation is over and the Pound, Aussie $, Euro will decline at the same time.  Once deflation is over, the $ will crash, but so will other currencies except perhaps the Yen and Swiss Franc.  Gold is the best option at that point.  But that point is nowhere on the horizon yet.  The world still thinks passive Americans will put up with the IRS stealing all our money to pay our debts.  Until you see that opinion change, which will be reflected in the bond markets (an indicator that grossly higher yields in Treasuries are coming), do not run from the $.  The long-term story is absolutely true…yes the $ is doomed…but it’s way too early to invest that way…deflation will punish you.  

Fyi, G isn’t totally risk free either…the statement that the principal is guaranteed is specious in a depression in which we’re going to see hundreds of companies, banks, cities, states go bankrupt. Money market funds are composed of the debt instruments of those institutions, so as they fail, money market funds can indeed lose principal.  But it’s the most risk free given your options.  If you ever get the option of a "treasury-only" money fund, shift into it.  

  • Wed, Dec 07, 2011 - 01:40pm

    #14
    Peak Prosperity Admin

    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    I know this post is two

I know this post is two years old, but somehow came up when I tried to visit this site.  I am also a government employee who thinks like you all do.  I only match as well, and have my money in the G fund.  When the market crashes again, I may switch to the I fund though I realize other countries/stocks will be dragged down as well.  It is my understanding that you CANNOT cash out your TSP even at a penalty.  The bottom line is that your money will be there for confiscation until you retire and have access to it.  All I can do is try to manage it as best as I can and hope they either change the rules on withdraw (to spur spending and keep the ponzi going?), or don’t confiscate.

If I am off base here, let me know.  I would gladly cash out at a penalty today if I could!

  • Sun, Mar 04, 2012 - 10:19am

    #15
    Peak Prosperity Admin

    Peak Prosperity Admin

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     Anyone tried

 Anyone tried marketsworld.com for binary options yet? They say they pay out 95% profit on winning trades which is substantially more than all other binary websites (I have used an option before which pays about 71%) and marketsworld are licensed in Great Britain? Are they a new site? I had not heard of them until recently.

 

  • Wed, Apr 18, 2012 - 12:52pm

    #16
    OITW

    OITW

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    dmger14 wrote:I know this

dmger14 wrote:

I know this post is two years old, but somehow came up when I tried to visit this site.  I am also a government employee who thinks like you all do.  I only match as well, and have my money in the G fund.  When the market crashes again, I may switch to the I fund though I realize other countries/stocks will be dragged down as well.  It is my understanding that you CANNOT cash out your TSP even at a penalty.  The bottom line is that your money will be there for confiscation until you retire and have access to it.  All I can do is try to manage it as best as I can and hope they either change the rules on withdraw (to spur spending and keep the ponzi going?), or don’t confiscate.

If I am off base here, let me know.  I would gladly cash out at a penalty today if I could!

This is my first $.02 post, so take it as such.  I stopped paying in altogether for several reasons.  I firmly doubt the USG will ever be able to pay out from this fund when I reach eligible age.  But as you saw, you can not/NOT withdraw from it, ever.  All you can do is borrow from it.  And as I discovered when I began my divorce, 50% of what I put in there is hers.  It is not negotiable in court, it is gone.  Gone.  And the 50% that is mine?  I can not/NOT borrow from it without her written approval.

I did it as military, so I didn’t even get matching funds, either.  As far as I’m concerned, it’s $40k pissed away–that’s a helluva lot of single malt Scotch.

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