Russia, Ukraine, and the Great Reset: A Think Piece
On April 1, Oilprice.com provided an analysis of a growing crisis in Ukraine between the Ukraine government and the Russia-backed breakaway province of Donetsk. The Oilprice article concluded:
It appears that Putin’s strategists have outmaneuvered Western powers. The weak response from both Brussels and Washington to Russian power moves in recent years appears to have emboldened Putin. Sanctions have been largely ineffective, while military options seem to be out of the question. Russian gas politics could now be a major pivotal factor in stopping any EU-NATO support if a renewed Ukraine conflict were to break out.
The gas politics have to do with the fact that Europe is highly dependent on Russian gas supplies, and those supply pipelines run through Ukraine. The stranglehold should be apparent, and the implications doubly obvious if Russia were to move against Ukraine, thus seizing the pipelines in addition to being able to squeeze origin supplies.
On the other hand, Europe is so highly dependent on that supply that the threat could give at least give Germany, if not all of the EU, serious reason to contemplate engaging on Ukraine’s side of the conflict. That is, the current NATO and EU rhetoric could trend toward military maneuvering.
Then yesterday (April 9) the NY Times ran an article that provided evidence Russia has been building up forces along its border with Ukraine for a few months, and at an increasing pace these last couple weeks. Those forces are backing up the Donetsk region’s large Russian enclave in far eastern Ukraine whose break from Ukraine back in 2015 or so is widely acknowledged to have been at the instigation of Russia. Perhaps that was Russia’s first overt move toward the conflict that now might be about to break out.
Since the break, Donetsk rebels and Ukrainian government forces have been in an armed stalemate. Overall, the West has assumed Russia would be content with that situation. But that assumption has been based on a Western estimation of geographical realpolitik – the assumption that real world facts on the ground overwhelm whatever narrative Putin might spin to his Russian audience about the country’s manifest destiny to reunite the original “Motherland.”
The purpose of the NY Times article was to review the growing danger of real war in the light of very recent escalations. It’s the NY Times – the DC swamp’s mouthpiece – so the article’s publication causes me to wonder if a balloon is being trialed. Or, perhaps, if the topic is being introduced as an early set piece toward the potential of US escalation of tensions with Russia, or active military engagement.
Thinking along that line, here’s a bit of context: Russia’s historic origins are Ukrainian. The Russian people emerged from the region around Kiev. Over the last decade plus, Putin has given a large hearing to a Russian professor and philosopher, Alexandr Dugin by name, who is a genuine Fascist as the term’s properly defined. But he seems to also be something of a mystic who believes Russia is destined to reinvigorate itself and the world by restoring the original Motherland, and elevate the Russian Orthodox Church to regional pre-eminence. Michael Millerman, in 2014 a Canadian graduate student in political science and a supporter of Dugin’s perspective in general terms, provided an informative 13-minute interview explaining Dugin’s thought to Ontario public television. It’s an excellent overview of Dugin’s (and Putin’s) critique of the West, and his rationale for resisting Western liberalism’s exportation over the rest of the world through economic and military coercion.
Considering Putin’s actions in the philosophical perspective of Dugin, which Putin has embraced and expressed from time to time, it strikes me as possible that Russia now perceives a momentary advantage in the world’s political dynamic and looks to take more of Ukraine while it can. The looming question is whether Russia’s domination of Europe’s energy supply would neuter EU outrage over her conquest of the whole of Ukraine should Putin choose to take it.
And, what of the US? It seems clear that Biden has chosen to continue to cast Russia as the world’s number one boogeyman. I wonder, then, if the current Administration might use a Ukraine crisis, or the threat to Western Europe, as a justification to enter into the conflict militarily. Or, perhaps, to justify the cyberwarfare with which Biden threatened Russia in February. Or, if the Administration might use the occasion to cudgel Europe with inaction until they finally agree to no longer rely upon Russia for oil and natural gas – which would open new profit opportunities for the U.S. Donor Class.
Time will tell. It does strike me, though, after listening to the Millerman interview again in the context of today’s global setting, that Dugin’s contrarian support of a multi-values world, and Putin’s apparent willingness to push against the West’s desire to harmonize the globe under western liberalism’s dictates, could mean that Russia might prove to be the wedge in the Davos Plan. I find myself wondering whether his current show of strength and his potential incursion into Ukraine might be a strategic maneuver to blunt the Great Reset and force Europe to remember just how dependent they are upon him, who apparently isn’t interested in turning Russia over to the international banking cartel and its grand scheme.
How ironic if it turns out that history remembers Putin as the student of a Fascist philosopher who turned out to be the champion of true global political and economic freedom, when the leaders of the West’s so-called democracies tried to hand their populations over to a self-serving master class of self-appointed guardians of humanity for a share in the plunder.
VT, glad you opened this topic, I’ve been following the recent developments in Ukraine, and the Russian build up of military assets on the border. The situation is rapidly moving towards a likely kinetic escalation with significant repercussions.
Of course while things are quickening as spring thaw allows the conditions and putrid flowers of war to bloom, the developments are a long time in the making and represent an evolution, or perhaps a devolution of events that have transpired both before and since the US backed Maidan coup that originally brought the Neo Nazi’s to power in Kiev in a destabilizing bid to encircle Russia.
While I agree with some of your points and observations, I disagree with some of the fundamental framing you’ve introduced via your sources that outlines the motivations, interests of the involved parties. The OilPrice article is a case in point. While clearly geopolitical energy interests and machinations are functionally key to all the interested parties. I believe they are actually subordinate to the over arching Geo strategic interests and motivations of the parties.
Pulling out to the broadest geopolitical context view, the developments in Ukraine are a continuation of the Great Game’ and the now evolved geo strategic Makinder Heartland Theory, that posits(in most simplistic terms)
Who rules Eastern Europe commands the Heartland (Eurasia and Africa)
Who rules the Heartland commands the World Island
Who rules the World Island commands the world
While the theory has evolved with subsequent foreign policy regimes from the George Kennan Cold war containment strategy, to the Brzezinski Doctrine and the now the ascendant Geostrategic nexus of the Neo Con’s Wolfowitz Doctrine with the Globalist Neo liberal/fascist/Corporatist agenda as personified by our friends Klaus Schwab and Company at the WEF. The general thesis is still in play to achieve world dominion. (FWIW I’m heard from reliable sources that we’ve always been at war with Eurasia!)
At this level the conflict dynamic is complex but an oversimplified take is that it is between the competing view of the Western order retaining ( what it arguably has already lost) a unipolar world dominance and control of monetary trade and energy flows vs. the multipolar world with Asian dominance including China’s Belt and Road Initiative and integration and realignment of Europe and the mid East to include the overarching strategic partnership of Germanys Industrial and technical might with the massive energy resources of Russia. (This integration represents the world Island part of the geostrategic equation)
It is this more granular view point that is pivotal in the developments in Ukraine. Unlike the risible thesis from that disinformation piece you linked from the New York Times, which posits that western powers are suddenly shocked and wondering what’s up with the aggressive posturing ~ Russian tanks on the border. Troop movements etc. The tanks on the border are a direct (and publicly discussed by Russian leadership), consequence of the actions by Kiev aggressively instigating and escalating tensions again Donbas and threatening a takeover of Sevastopol and status quo balance of power that exists.
Egged on by the Neo Con’s who’s aggressive military encirclement of Russia agenda is now back in play in full force and who control of the Ukraine policy by virtue of the Biden Selection and as evidenced by the ascendancy of Neo Con cookie queen Victoria Nuland who is the Nominee for Undersecretary of State for political affairs.
The primary objectives for stirring up trouble and instigating a direct conflict between Ukraine and Russia, is to Politically kill the Nordstream 2 pipeline. And to promote NATO’s funding and Encirclement agenda.
By killing Nordstream 2 the Neo Con’s drive a wedge between eventual integration of Germany/Europe with the ascendant Asian block. And while Russia is happy to sell and profit from gas to Europe, in truth that is not their primary motivation as they have plenty of markets to the East.
Rather than as you posit, Russia might see an opportunity to invade and annex or control territory of Ukraine, they are actually loathe to do so as it represents a setback to eventual economic and geopolitical integration with Europe as well as a escalation of sanctions, interference and histrionic Russian Demonisation by the US and it’s Western Five Eyes Allies and it’s European/NATO poodle attack dogs.
Furthermore Ukraine is no prize for a Putative empire and there is a reason Putin has resisted numerous entreaties to ‘invade’ Ukraine in support of legitimate NovoRussian defense to date. Ukraine is a fragmented and failed state and economic burden.
Unlike the aforementioned thesis, or that Russia is trying to recreate the former Soviet Union, Russia’s interests are limited to having a strategic buffer on their border, as opposed to another encircling and aggressive NATO state and control of their vitally strategic and historically precedented warm water port on the black Sea at Sevastopol, Crimea.
This excerpt from article from Pepe Escobar, does an excellent job of re framing the events in play and the entire article is worth reading for additional context of players and agendas:
“On March 24, Ukrainian President Zelensky, for all practical purposes, signed a declaration of war against Russia, via decree No. 117/2021.
The decree establishes that retaking Crimea from Russia is now Kiev’s official policy. That’s exactly what prompted an array of Ukrainian battle tanks to be shipped east on flatbed rail cars, following the saturation of the Ukrainian army by the US with military equipment including unmanned aerial vehicles, electronic warfare systems, anti-tank systems and man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS).
More crucially, the Zelensky decree is the proof any subsequent war will have been prompted by Kiev, debunking the proverbial claims of “Russian aggression.” Crimea, since the referendum of March 2014, is part of the Russian Federation.
It was this (italics mine) de facto declaration of war, which Moscow took very seriously, that prompted the deployment of extra Russian forces to Crimea and closer to the Russian border with Donbass. Significantly, these include the crack 76th Guards Air Assault Brigade, known as the Pskov paratroopers and, according to an intel report quoted to me, capable of taking Ukraine in only six hours.
It certainly does not help that in early April US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, fresh from his former position as a board member of missile manufacturer Raytheon, called Zelensky to promise “unwavering US support for Ukraine’s sovereignty.” That ties in with Moscow’s interpretation that Zelensky would never have signed his decree without a green light from Washington.”
I have looked at a spectrum of informed analysts who follow this issue and there is a split between the the likelihood of actual war vs. posturing, but there is a general consensus, that Putin is not bluffing and that should Kiev instigate Invasion or attack they will cease to exist as a state. And there is nothing that NATO can do to prevent or prevail in that scenario given the balance of forces and Putin control of escalation dominance.
This is very dangerous development on the event horizon with lose lose lose scenarios for the US and a small but very real catastrophic tail risk of Nuclear proportions for all of us.
Think piece indeed…
I have to admit the way I heard about the current situation was seeing an article in ZeroHedge that the US had delivered a shit-ton of weapons to Ukraine and then in the following weeks I heard from “reputable” newspapers that Putin as moving troops about menacingly inside his own borders.
But maybe it happened backwards from that in reality?
Not long ago I read Disunited Nations by Peter Zeihan. He had an interesting view on the Russians. Basically Russia’s demography is so bad that if they want to be an empire again they need to restore the soviet borders (pretty much in their entirety) and they need to do it very soon.
Putin’s got the stomach for the job but Zeihan points out that it won’t be easy. What if Russia is fully involved in taking Ukraine, Poland and the Baltics right when Turkey remembers that it could move back towards being a regional superpower if only it had Crimea? What about all those hostile people to the south who would love to strike at Moscow with terrorist activities? What about the Chinese who are historical enemies of Russia and would love to grab some of that land along their borders back?
Ive heard some say that when historians look back on the Demise Of America on the world stage, the two most desperately stupid moves will be remembered as 1) using the reserve currency as a weapon and 2) driving Russia and China into an alliance against us. Historically, and culturally Russia is way more “European” than China is so I’m not sure what we where thinking there. The people on Russia’s borders have a lot to fear from Russia but this idea that Russia is out to hurt America has been utter fantasy from the start.
But maybe Zeihan is wrong and China will openly back Russia once hostilities break out. That would be something. The west would then have to choose between letting Putin have the Soviet borders back uncontested or commit to WW3 outright.
There are too many ways for all hell to break loose to confine yourself to just one nightmare scenario :>
Great conversation so far. I too follow geopolitics extremely closely, with great fascination. I am very much aligned with mememonkey’s thinking.
In addition to following Pepe Escobar’s excellent writing on this I also follow another excellent investigative journalist, Mathew Ehret who is a BRI expert. You can find his work here: https://canadianpatriot.org/ Many of his articles offer serious food for thought. His real history of Canada really exposes the lies to what actually happened between Canada and the USA historically speaking, and how the Brits have had (and continue to have) their dirty fingers in everything from the get go. They are STILL intent on bringing America back into their fold. Really interesting reading…
I believe that we are witnessing a battle for all the marbles between the unipolar Great Reset/west crowd, and the multipolar alliance by the BRI crowd. I sense the urgency re getting everyone jabbed is related to the former and their big technocratic dystopian agenda, trying to get as much accomplished before the sheeple figure out the game and rebel en masse. In opposition to that, the Chinese and Russians continue to play the long game extremely well, patiently, and very Sun Tzu like. I don’t know if you guys caught this article this week re successful Chinese incursions into South America. That does not bode well for western alliance.
For sure both Taiwan the and Ukraine are the flashpoints being keenly watched. I will not be surprised if the USA gets a bit of a head slap from Russia in the Ukraine – enough to assert / strut dominance, but not enough start an all out war. A warning, if you will. Hard to say what will happen with the posturing over Taiwan, but the Chinese may very well do the same kind of thing.
We live in interesting times. As if we did not have enough to keep tabs on with Covid… we need bottomless popcorn bowls in this day and age 😉
Thanks for the great big picture conversation!
Further to my post #4, I will add this article as an important read for those who are interested.
Patrick Armstrong was an analyst in the Canadian Department of National Defence specialising in the USSR/Russia from 1984 and a Counsellor in the Canadian Embassy in Moscow in 1993-1996. He retired in 2008 and has been writing on Russia and related subjects on the Net ever since.
This article speaks to the relatively unknown, little talked about in the MSM, Russian dominance of the Arctic – long planned and well underway. Given the recent blockage of the Suez Canal, this now takes on far greater significance. It does appear to have the potential of checkmate, as implied in the article.
My concern lay with how the dying Anglo/American Empire responds to the predicament. Do they go down fighting hard, right to the end, potentially taking us all into WWIII? Or do they see the light and decide to engage in collaborative cooperation that may help resolve some global problems, and better manage global predicaments?
Mathew Ehret wrote here about how Trump was trying to move in the direction of the latter option, or so it would seem. This is one more piece of evidence of how he was not in lockstep with the deep state unipolar planners, which is why he was removed. He was not a team player…
Canada would do well to start paying more attention and see the benefits – clearly spelled out here: Canada Must Join the New Silk Road: A Road Map for the 21st Century
Alas, it is unlikely, since the Great Resetters are infiltrating the Great White North at a steady pace. This weekend in Canada the Liberal Party (Justin Trudeau’s party) had their Policy Convention. Mark Carney made an appearance, described here:
“…. set Liberal hearts aflutter with his comments about “the responsibility of service” and his pledge to “do whatever I can to support the Liberal party in our efforts to build a better future for Canadians.”
Those words will pour fuel on speculative fires that have been smouldering for years.
Regardless of whether he is actually now preparing or prepared to run as a Liberal for elected office, Liberals will no doubt happily accept the credibility that any association might lend to them. Generally speaking, if the former governor of the banks of Canada and England offers his endorsement and support, you accept it.”
Mark Carney and our Finance Minister, Chrystia Freeland, are Rhodes Scholars and card carrying members of Klaus Schmidt’s “you will own nothing and be happy” WEF club. See here, here, and here. Also in that club, among other Canadian elites are Bob Rae, Canada’s UN Ambassador.
It is now being widely speculated that the charismatic Carney will run for office. I have no doubts he will end up Liberal Party leader, replacing the useless idiot JT. Carney and Freelend will then herd the ignorant sheeple into their great green strategic agenda, further doing the bidding of their WEF masters.
I could go on and on about how Canada has been infiltrated and our sovereignty is in name only. We are toadies of the Anglo-American Empire. Always have been…
As I said, we live in interesting times, and the majority are oblivious to the many strategically important things that are going on around them, which can and do have great effect on their lives. It is disheartening to watch and know it did not, does not have to be this way.
Thanks for the write up.
Excellent thread. Thanks VT, MM, Jan and wot!