Risk-Benefit Analysis on Vaccine vs Virus

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  • Sat, Sep 11, 2021 - 09:00am

    Mark D

    Mark D

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    Risk-Benefit Analysis on Vaccine vs Virus

Hi PP community!

Has anyone seen a full risk-benefit analysis that estimates risk of death/serious injury from COVID vs risk of death/serious injury from Pfizer vaccine? (with or without early treatments)?

I’m about to embark on my own analysis but figured someone else would have done something like this already.

  • Sat, Sep 11, 2021 - 11:08am



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    here’s my “risk” spreadsheet

Numbers are fatalities per 100,000 per year.  Most of the data is from CDC, except for COVID, which comes from the IFR paper from last year.

You can figure out vaccine “benefit” for yourself.

Note that the “untreated COVID” assumes NTFY (No Treatments For You!), and an 20% annual attack rate.

The “Treated COVID” assumes McCullough’s 90% fatality reduction from his sequenced multi-drug therapy regimen.  Adjust as required.

Note that teenagers have more risk from accidents  (27.5/100k) than they do from untreated COVID (0.6/100k).  Maybe no vaccine is required for the teenagers? Instead, convince them to wear helmets (27.5/100k) when they ride motorcycles, encourage them not to kill themselves (13.9/100k), suggest they don’t fight with their friends (11.2/100k), vs COVID mortality risk (0.6/100k).

Vaccinating teenagers is just colossally stupid.  The fact that Fauci is equivocal on this should tell you everything you need to know about our “health” authorities and what passes for “science” these days.

“I know – let’s sacrifice the health f the younger people, so that the Vax Manufacturers can get richer.”

  • Sat, Sep 11, 2021 - 08:48pm



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    Reply To: Risk-Benefit Analysis on Vaccine vs Virus

Wait until you see this table (expect a surprise): how can “they” argue with the risk-benefit analysis directly based on the mortality results of the randomized, double-blind clinical trial of the vaccine? Out of mRNA vaccines, only Pfizer has released its 6-month trial results so far (see table below).

The greatest gift to humanity would be if this simple table (no interpretations needed) can be shared with the entire U.S. population and other countries offering mRNA vaccines, which is now most countries.

Would mandates still be practical after the whole population has seen this table? Note that these results were even before Delta was here (and pretty much everyone agrees that vaccine efficacy is lower against Delta than previous strains).

We can be almost 100% sure Moderna is even worse than Pfizer based on VAERS death rates and the 3.33x higher vaccine dose with Moderna than Pfizer. Most interestingly, you can see that the US has all but curtailed administration of Moderna (which was partly developed by the NIH!) since around May based on this graph here https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-vaccine-doses-by-manufacturer?country=~USA. The sad, brutal reason I can think of is that they realized it’s killing people significantly more than Pfizer.

There is a COVID vaccine that actually seems to reduce all-cause mortality (without increasing non-COVID deaths at all), it is an inactivated virus vaccine called Covaxin from India, available in Mexico and a few other places. The preprint of the randomized blinded clinical trial is here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.30.21259439v1 . There is every reason to think other inactivated virus vaccines like Sinopharm and Sinovac will be similarly good (but their clinical trials didn’t include many older people, who are at highest risk to die not only from the virus but also from unsafe vaccines like the mRNA and probably AstraZeneca also).

  • Wed, Sep 15, 2021 - 03:39am



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    Risk-Benefit Analysis on Vaccine vs Virus

This is very interesting does anyone have any information on the J&J vaccine which I understand is also based on inactivated virus and not MRNA.  Unfortunately, with vaccine mandates we are being forced to research which one is the safest and most effective, normally that is the job of the FDA etc

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