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RE Market shift. guesses as to what is coming

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  • Sun, Nov 01, 2009 - 11:53pm

    #1
    docmims

    docmims

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    RE Market shift. guesses as to what is coming

 

Just a fun thread on guessing what is coming soon.  Whether as mundane and boring as a correction in the DOW or as exciting as an Israeli attack on Iran or maybe a Chinese takeover of Taiwan.

My guess is just an unwinding of commercial real estate derivatives leading to another banking crisis with bailout and a 5000 pt correction in the DOW over the next 3mos.

 

A penny of fiat currency for you thoughts.  Extra penny if it’s funny/sarcastic.Wink

  • Mon, Nov 02, 2009 - 12:23am

    #2
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: RE Market shift. guesses as to what is coming

Wall street journal just reported the CIT declared Chapter 11 bankruptcy one hour ago at 6PM eastern today (Sunday).  Is this the next Lehman?

 

wsj.com

  • Mon, Nov 02, 2009 - 12:28am

    #3
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: RE Market shift. guesses as to what is coming

[quote=docmims]

…  Is this the next Lehman?

[/quote]

If Goldman Sachs can make out sh*tload of $$$$ out of it… of course it is!

  • Mon, Nov 02, 2009 - 12:42am

    #4
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: RE Market shift. guesses as to what is coming

A penny of fiat currency for you thoughts.  Extra penny if it’s funny/sarcastic.Wink

 

 

A penny is more than fiat its a reasonable piece o’copper

  • Mon, Nov 02, 2009 - 12:43am

    #5
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: RE Market shift. guesses as to what is coming

A penny of fiat currency for you thoughts.  Extra penny if it’s funny/sarcastic.Wink

 

 

A penny is more than fiat its a reasonable piece o’copper

  • Mon, Nov 02, 2009 - 12:48am

    #6
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: RE Market shift. guesses as to what is coming

[quote=robie robinson]

A penny of fiat currency for you thoughts.  Extra penny if it’s funny/sarcastic.Wink

 

 

A penny is more than fiat its a reasonable piece o’copper

[/quote]

actually since 1982 a penny is mostly zinc, but my penny offer is in paperSmile

  • Mon, Nov 02, 2009 - 01:16am

    #7
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: RE Market shift. guesses as to what is coming

  • The second leg down in the markets is coming. A retest of the March lows.
  • The dollar is going to rally 30%+ in value.
  • Oil is headed for $30-40/brl range.
  • Silver is headed to under $5/oz.
  • Spot Gold is an unknown at this point.
  • Paper gold and gold miners will sell off initially, but be quick to recover.
  • Everything that you feared to invest in will prosper. Everything that you thought was a safe investment will tank.

The Gov/Fed needs a reason to start Round 2 of inflationary policy, this will be it.

My deflation adjusted 2 cents (worth a buck twenty when this is over)

 

  • Mon, Nov 02, 2009 - 01:36am

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    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: RE Market shift. guesses as to what is coming

I just can’t imagine that we are going to go through last year’s deleveraging event all over again, and that everything will play out this time like it did the last time. I know that everything has been trading in lockstep, but with all of the rumblings about our dollar and printing and budget deficits, I just can’t get myself to believe that every asset class in every country will all move down together, again.

And that’s my inflation adjusted .02 (worth $2,222,222,22.02 when this is over)

  • Mon, Nov 02, 2009 - 01:46am

    #9
    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: RE Market shift. guesses as to what is coming

I like JAG’s prediction, but JoeManc wins the inflation adjusted 2c battle. Smile

  • Mon, Nov 02, 2009 - 01:57am

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    Peak Prosperity Admin

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    Re: RE Market shift. guesses as to what is coming

[quote=joemanc]

And that’s my inflation adjusted .02 (worth $2,222,222,22.02 when this is over)

[/quote]

LOL! Too funny Joe.

I think it will play out the same because it really never ended. Everything moved in lockstep fashion up, and then down, and then up again. This is the hallmark of a credit market bubble, not an asset bubble.

Spot Gold is the wild card IMO. Will it hold its purchasing power or will it sell off initially with the paper gold/gold miner ETFs?

I think its going to hold, too much uncertainty and fear headed our way. 

Just a guess.

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