Population growth is S-shaped, not exponential

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  • Thu, Feb 21, 2013 - 03:52pm

    #22
    TheWind777

    TheWind777

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    Which major problem do you wish to talk about

Unfortunately, we talk because there's really nothing else we can do. The magnitude of these things would take concerted effort for years to reverse.

The 'island of plastic' in the Pacific is now twice the size of France.

http://www.zmescience.com/science/oceanography/just-in-case-you-didnt-know-theres-a-garbage-island-twice-as-big-as-france-in-the-pacific-ocean/

In that assessment he says, "In case you’re wondering, no, I don’t think there’s anything you can do to help clean the patch up (even if you wanted to."

"Marine animals and birds ingest plastic which just doesn’t go away from their stomach. Eventually, it starts filling it up, and if it’s not toxic, and kills them, it fills their stomach and basically causes the animals to starve to death – a quite painful and tragic death. It can be harmful even for humans because we too eat the animals which ingest the plastic."

So, humans are just, basically, monsters. We're a disease upon the planet; and we call it care to extend our lives out so we can all live to be 90… yet make fun of old people at every turn?

I think, if I had the power to create a bacteria which was to only wipe out humans? I would do it. It would be the most caring thing any person might do for the planet.

Every problem we face isn't a problem of garbage, and isn't a problem of fossil fuels, or isn't a problem of global warming. It's a problem of too many people. We NEED this exponential equation to be RIGHT. We need it to kill-off 80 billion people BEFORE we wipe out all the majestic animals such as the elephant, the gorilla, the giraffe, the panda, the etc.

We're just not worth it. We are not worth the destruction of every other organism on the planet just because of our selfish arrogance.

 

  • Thu, Feb 21, 2013 - 03:55pm

    #21
    TheWind777

    TheWind777

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    When I Actually Did Those

I just looked-back to see when I had orginally done those.

I've never shared those with anybody but my best friend, before.

I originally got the idea and did them back between January 27th and Jan 29th of 2011. Three months later I did the last stock market graph (don't remember why there was that big gap in time).

Funny how I'm again doing it around the same time of year (2/19/2013) two years later. Guess I must start thinking about world population about this time of year. Since I live in Mesa, Arizona… it's not the most depressing time of the year like when I used to live in New Hampshire; so can't blame it on that.

Don't remember where I got the idea. Hope the concept spurs someone smarter than I am with more influence than I have to doing something smarter and more influential with the information. Don't just steal the information and create some terrorist book on the subject, though. I hate when people steal ideas and do stupid things with the information I put out there. Use the information in a creative way to encourage the world to wake up.

Unfortunately, I believe it is already way too late. I think that we were all born into this time period and all we can do is observe and be journalists to the events as they occur. It's a s*** hits the fan kind of moment, where we've been staring at the brick wall from a hundred miles off, forever; and we'ver really been doing next to nothing about it.

People said about fossil fuels doing such a thing from back about when I was born. They warned that the burning of coal and oil would do this and could easily have done something 60 years ago. Now, 60 years have gone by and little-to-nothing has been done.

Here's the 2007 Energy Production in the United States:

http://www.ei.lehigh.edu/learners/energy/usenergy3.html

If you lump coal, natural gas and petroleum all into one (which they really are)… that means that even in the U.S., where we have people worried about this problem and in a country where we have enough money to actually do something about it… 80 percent of our energy comes from fossil fuels.

And, the 'other' dangerous one, nuclear, is almost the rest of the pie-chart. It's like, "Which way do you want to destroy the planet, paper or plastic?"

Hydoelectric is only 3.43 percent.

Come forward to 2013?

http://www.juancole.com/2013/01/gigawatts-renewables-energy.html

"The bad news is that the US still generated 5 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2012, the highest per capita in the OECD nations! We are poisoning the world and provoking catastrophic climate change, and all the good news about wind and solar doesn’t offset our massive contribution to looming environmental disaster.

Specially bad news is that 1.4 gigawatts of new, dirty coal power was brought online in 2012 in the US. That should be illegal! Coal is poisoning us and our world! Carbon dioxide in the quantities we are producing it is a toxin for the world. Not to mention that we are being mercury-poisoned by dirty coal emissions!"

I saw the movie, "Bacteria, to the Future'; the problem is, we don't have a Delorean..

 

 

  • Thu, Feb 21, 2013 - 04:06pm

    #23
    TheWind777

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    A Pickle

Unfortunately, the rest of the world is in the pickle. We are just the monsters in their life-dreams. The Gorilla can do nothing but die before our might. The poor innocent animals are the ones who suffer under our idiotic system of constant fearful rise.

We won this awful war, dominating all other species via our idiotic, ruthless, evil, warlike, selfish, arrogant spirit, a hundred years ago. We are afraid of everything, and we destroy all that we are afraid of, so we destroy everything.

The animals who never do anything to anybody are the only meek that I see, not humans. They DESERVE to inherit the Earth; but I believe that the ruthless will inherit an awful, destroyed world way before that happens. The creepy anmals like humans, cockroaches, rats, sea gulls, black birds, all creepy thieves, bacteria, all vicious stealing, thieving organisms. Deer, rabbits, cows, and other idiotic-yet-gentle creatures aren't going to be the ones who will be end players in this bloody free-for-all end game of destruction.

 

 

 

  • Thu, Mar 28, 2013 - 12:59pm

    #24
    TheWind777

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    One Man

Of course, what one man can do is just pitiful. If one man does something; but everybody else does nothing, then what the Hell?

I never had kids, on purpose. It isn't like I don't LIKE kids. I work teaching disadvantaged youth. I have over 250-kids-per-day and that number will probably go up to 300-per-day this summer.

The reason I had no kids was… back when I was 18-years old I realized the world was overpopulated and it was, equivalently, "a sin" to have kids.

As it is, I see it as a sin to have kids and have told people that throughout my life. Who cares? The church discourages condoms? If there really were a God, he certainly wouldn't be discouraging condoms right now – so we can certainly see what side of the equation the church is on in this manner. They are on the side of evil if there are ANY on the side of good.

But, bringing it back to me… what possible good did I do by not having those one, or two, kids? In the end, possibly four people followed my example. Big deal, who cares?

I didn't have a car until I was about 50 years old. Finally, I moved to the big dirty city of Phoenix and had to buy a car. I couldn't survive without the car now. About half-a-year ago I moved close enough to my place of work so that I could actually ride my bicyle to work again; but at 60. That really isn't a good alternative when it's 120 degrees out (Mesa, AZ). The day I tried it my workers said I looked like I had run a marathon.

What did not using a car for 40 years accomplish in the long-term? Nothing whatsoever, because everybody else used their cars during that same time period. They just thought ME crazy during all that time, and judged me because I used the public transporation system and my teeny, tiny bicycle.

For a while I was actually bicycling every day to work until a car came unexpectantly out of the driveway, I went flying and broke my scaffoid bone in my wrist. After that, I couldn't ride the bike for 5 months and that was that. Too many cars out there to safely ride a bicycle; too few bicycle paths.

Sigh, I do have to say that this has been one big ship, and I think we're all going down…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • Thu, Mar 28, 2013 - 01:06pm

    #25
    TheWind777

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    A Sin

By 'sin', I mean 'incredibly sad', or 'incredibly selfish', or 'mindless idiocy'.

And, because to me 'evil' has to do with those three things, then it means evil.

 

 

  • Sun, Jun 16, 2013 - 12:24pm

    #26
    TheWind777

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    Averaged Exponential Curves

Some thoughts for those who might stumble across this page some day…

The other day I came up with another concept that might help when coming up with accurate relationships.

Is there any branch of mathematics where they average various exponential curves to arrive at one average exponential curve?

For example, can one take the exponential drop-off from the Gross National Product, average it with the drop-off of World Population Growth (or something more local such as the U.S. Population growth), average that with the exponential of CO2 growth in the air (if that happens to be exponential) and come up with a exponential curve which will detail better what the overall-future might look like?

It is also possible that the shortest exponential growth curve (which seems to be the Capitalistic growth curve) is the one which will control all other growth curves to a higher degree… so that an average over many different exponentials might not mean anything.

For example, if Capitalism were to plummet in 2070… wouldn't that affect other exponential growth rates, particularly in America? Some exponentials seem to be 'more important' than others are.

For example, if the production of food is an exponential curve (didn't research it… but it only stands to reason that it might be), then wouldn't that be a causitive factor for what might cause the World Population Growth to eventually plummet?

So, if one were to match exponential growth factors which seem to have logical connections with each other (an exponential on Wheat or Corn Growth, for example, having an inverse relationship with the exponential on Population Growth)… or an exponential relationship to the loss of fish in the oceans year-by-year as pertaining to the data that must be out there relating the number of fish taken each year and how that rate is declining.

Also, is there some way to subtract two inverse relationship exponentials point-for-point where the resulting interpolated line might tell you something?

Just some thoughts I had which someone researching such things might add parts of those concepts to their methodology.

 

  • Tue, Jun 30, 2015 - 03:44pm

    #27
    Lev_Kalmykov

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    Individual-Based Mechanisms Of Population Growth

Logical deterministic individual-based cellular automata model of interspecific competition for a single limited resource. A mechanism of competitive exclusion of one species by another.

Logical deterministic individual-based cellular automata model of interspecific competition for a single limited resource. A mechanism of competitive exclusion of one species by another.

 

 

  • Tue, Jun 30, 2015 - 03:47pm

    #28
    Lev_Kalmykov

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    Individual-Based Mechanisms Of Population Growth

Logical deterministic individual-based cellular automata model of an ecosystem with one species. The model demonstrates a mechanism of S-shaped population growth.

 

Logical deterministic individual-based cellular automata model of an ecosystem with one species. The model demonstrates a mechanism of S-shaped population growth.

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