PM Weekly Market Commentary – 12/13/2019

Login or register to post comments Last Post 0 reads   17 posts
Viewing 10 posts - 1 through 10 (of 17 total)
  • Sat, Dec 14, 2019 - 05:19am

    #1

    davefairtex

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 2134

    count placeholder1+

    PM Weekly Market Commentary – 12/13/2019

On Friday, gold rose +6.58 [+0.45%] to 1481.98 on moderate volume, and silver moved up +0.02 [+0.12%] to 17.01 on moderate volume also. The buck fell hard [-0.66%], SPX was largely unchanged [+0.01%], while crude rallied [+0.98%] along with bonds [10y yield -7.8 bp].

The big news of the week: a US-China trade deal was formally announced by both countries on Friday. The agreement includes “chapters” on IP rights, technology transfer, agricultural products, financial services, exchange rates and transparency, and dispute settlements. The text was not released; it supposedly needs a “legal review and language authentication.” Whatever what means. 25% tariffs will remain on $250 billion of Chinese imports, 7.5% tariffs will remain on $120 billion in imports, and the US will roll back tariffs on $360 billion and it will not impose tariffs on $160 billion in products scheduled to occur on Sunday.

https://www.voanews.com/usa/first-phase-us-china-trade-deal-announced

The metals sector map shows silver leading gold, the miners leading the metal, and juniors leading the seniors, which is bullish for PM.  Platinum did quite well, while copper was a bit of a laggard. Most items are above all 3 moving averages, but both silver and gold still remain below the 50 MA, as does gold/Euros. Copper’s relative weakness suggests that the good news about the US-China trade deal is all baked into the cake at this point, as was gold’s relatively neutral reaction to the event.

Name Chart Chg (W) 52w ch MA9 MA50 MA200 50/200 Last Crossing last
Silver Miners SIL 4.47% 27.66% rising rising rising rising ema9 on 2019-12-10 2019-12-13
Platinum $PLAT 3.64% 16.84% rising rising rising rising ema9 on 2019-12-10 2019-12-13
Junior Miners GDXJ 3.42% 38.83% rising rising rising falling ema9 on 2019-12-11 2019-12-13
Palladium $PALL 2.98% 59.99% rising rising rising rising ema9 on 2019-11-18 2019-12-13
Senior Miners GDX 2.78% 35.35% rising rising rising falling ema9 on 2019-12-11 2019-12-13
Silver $SILVER 2.26% 14.59% rising falling rising falling ema9 on 2019-12-11 2019-12-13
Copper $COPPER 1.17% 0.25% rising rising falling rising ma200 on 2019-12-06 2019-12-13
Gold $GOLD 1.13% 18.76% rising falling rising falling ema9 on 2019-12-11 2019-12-13
Gold/Euro $GOLD:$XEU 0.55% 21.36% rising falling rising falling ema9 on 2019-12-13 2019-12-13

Gold rallied +16.54 [+1.13%] to 1481.98 on moderate volume. The opening white marubozu was neutral, and forecaster jumped back into an uptrend. Gold is now back in an uptrend in both daily and weekly timeframes. Gold/Euros isn’t quite as healthy; uptrend on the daily, neutral weekly, and a downtrend on the monthly.

The FOMC did not raise rates at the meeting this week, and they projected that there will be no rate changes during 2020 – although “monetary policy is not on a pre-set course.” The futures markets are projecting a 2% chance of a rate cut in January 2020.

COMEX GC open interest rose +9.3K contracts on Friday, and rose +10K contracts this week. That was 4 days of global annual production in new paper added to the market. Current open interest for GC: 88% of global annual production, up +1.29% this week.

Gold commercial net rose +21K contracts, which was -21K fewer shorts, and -546 fewer longs. Gold managed money net fell -24K contracts, which was +5.0K new shorts, and -19K fewer longs. That is some short-covering by the commercials, but the overall commercial short interest remains at near all-time highs. We are not near a turning point according to the COT report.

Silver rose +0.38 [+2.29%] to 17.01 on moderate volume. The long white candle was bullish (45%) and forecaster moved back into an uptrend. Silver is now back in an uptrend in both daily and weekly timeframes, and the monthly downtrend is very mild. Still, silver’s chart continues to show a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, which defines a downtrend. It remains the weakest of all 3 PM charts.

COMEX SI open interest fell -401 contracts on Friday, and dropped -1.1K contracts this week. Current open interest for SI: 115% of global annual production, down -0.64% this week.

Silver commercial net rose +11K contracts, which was -10.0K fewer shorts, and +1.2K new longs. Silver managed money net fell -15K contracts, which was +6.1K new shorts, and -8.8K fewer longs. There were a fairly large number of shorts covered by the commercials this week; we are not at a turning point but things are looking a bit more positive.

XAU rallied strongly [+4.57%] this week. The long white candle was a bullish continuation, and forecaster moved higher into its strong uptrend. This week saw a new 3-year weekly closing high; last time the weekly XAU closed at this level was back in 2016. XAU remains in an uptrend in all 3 timeframes. For the past 8 months or so, dips in the mining shares have been buying opportunities.

The GDX:gold ratio climbed +1.61%, and the GDXJ:GDXJ ratio climbed +0.62%. That’s bullish.

Platinum rose +32.70 [+3.51%], palladium rose +55.20 [+2.89%], and copper rose +0.03 [+1.15%]. This was yet another new all time high for palladium this week.

USD

The buck dropped -0.53 [-0.54%] to 96.74 on extremely heavy volume. The short black candle was a bearish continuation, and forecaster dropped deeper into its downtrend. The buck remains in a downtrend in both the daily and weekly timeframes.

Major currency moves included: EUR [+0.91%], GBP [+1.50%], JPY [-0.71%], AUD [+0.54%], CAD [+0.64%]. Mostly this was about the US-China trade deal, as well as the UK election which appears as though it will bring about an end to the apparently-eternal Brexit process within the next few months.

SPX climbed +22.89 [+0.73%] to 3168.80 on moderate volume. The long white candle was a bullish continuation (and another new all time high), and forecaster inched higher and remains in an uptrend. SPX ended the week in an uptrend in all 3 timeframes.

Tech [+1.93%] led, along with discretionary [+1.16%] while REITs [-2.47%] and communication services [-0.38%] did worst. This was a relatively bullish sector map.

Name Chart Chg (W) 52w ch MA9 MA50 MA200 50/200 Last Crossing last
Gold Miners GDX 2.78% 35.35% rising rising rising falling ema9 on 2019-12-11 2019-12-13
Technology XLK 1.97% 35.20% rising rising rising rising ema9 on 2019-12-10 2019-12-13
Cons Discretionary XLY 1.17% 18.36% rising rising rising rising ema9 on 2019-12-06 2019-12-13
Financials XLF 1.15% 25.45% rising rising rising rising ema9 on 2019-12-06 2019-12-13
Energy XLE 0.99% -5.08% rising rising falling rising ema9 on 2019-12-06 2019-12-13
Industrials XLI 0.74% 20.18% rising rising rising rising ema9 on 2019-12-11 2019-12-13
Materials XLB 0.57% 16.86% rising rising rising rising ema9 on 2019-12-11 2019-12-13
Healthcare XLV 0.47% 9.58% rising rising rising rising ema9 on 2019-12-04 2019-12-13
Telecom XTL 0.43% 0.81% falling rising falling rising ema9 on 2019-12-12 2019-12-13
Utilities XLU 0.25% 11.31% rising falling rising falling ema9 on 2019-12-13 2019-12-13
Cons Staples XLP 0.18% 13.24% rising rising rising rising ema9 on 2019-11-26 2019-12-13
Homebuilders XHB -0.43% 36.61% rising rising rising rising ema9 on 2019-12-11 2019-12-13
Defense ITA -0.52% 23.18% rising rising rising rising ema9 on 2019-12-11 2019-12-13
REIT RWR -3.48% 7.46% falling falling rising falling ma200 on 2019-12-12 2019-12-13

VIX fell -0.99 to 12.63.

The US equity market was ranked last this week; Latin America did best.

Rates & Commodities

TLT climbed [+0.50%], the doji candle was unrated, and forecaster ended the week in a downtrend. The 30-year yield fell -6 bp to 2.26%

TY fell [-0.05%], the doji candle was mildly bullish (30%), and forecaster inched higher but remains in a mild downtrend. TY ended the week in a downtrend in the weekly and monthly timeframes. The 10-year yield fell -7.8 bp to 1.82%.

JNK climbed [+0.84%], the swing low candle was bullish (59%), and forecaster ended the week in an uptrend. BAA.AAA differential fell -1 bp to +87 bp. There are still no real worries about credit quality right now.

Crude climbed +0.60 [+1.02%] to 59.56 on moderately heavy volume. The short white candle was a bullish continuation, and forecaster moved higher into its uptrend. Crude ended the week in a strong uptrend in all 3 timeframes. This week saw another new multi-week high for crude.

The EIA report on Wednesday was bearish: crude +0.8m, gasoline +5.4m, distillates +4.1m. The report caused some selling, but buyers bought the dip. Crude prices seemed to be driven by the US-China trade deal, as well as promises by the Saudis to “over-comply” with their production quota.

Physical Supply Indicators

* The GLD ETF tonnage on hand dropped -0.01 tons, with 886 tons remaining in inventory.

* ETF Discount to NAV:

 PHYS -1.48% to NAV [increase]
PSLV -1.77% to NAV [increase]
CEF -3.25% to NAV [decrease]

* Premium for physical (via Bullion Vault: https://www.bullionvault.com/gold_market.do#!/orderboard) vs spot gold (loco New York, via Kitco: https://www.kitco.com/charts/livegoldnewyork.html) shows a $1 discount for gold, and no premium for silver.

* Gold dealer big bars premiums were: gold [1kg] 0.88% and silver [1000oz] 3.22%.

Grey Swans & Geopolitics

  • US-China trade: Shockingly, the parties appear to have concluded a deal, as mentioned in the lead-in paragraph. Of course until the text is published and the deal is signed, we won’t know the details. And even then, given the CCP’s history of cheating on deals (the Hong Kong agreement comes to mind), it is hard to know just how much lasting effect it will have. What caused the CCP to sign? Perhaps it was Trump’s polling well vs “No Crime Impeachment”, perhaps it was the strong Nonfarm Payrolls report, perhaps it was the agreement to pass USMCA, as well as the Hong Kong and Xinjiang Acts with a resounding bipartisan majority – it all added up to possibly 4 more years of “The Donald” and revealed a unified “Get Tougher With China” attitude from the US political class, as well as no pending recession. Perhaps that local council election in Hong Kong even played a part. USTR Lighthizer and Liu He will sign the agreement once it is formalized. The takeaway: Trump didn’t cave – it looks like a reasonable agreement.

  • Fed Not-QE: headline 4095.5B, +29.8B (+0.73% w/w) (prior +0.32% w/w). We are back to large increases once more. Armstrong believes (as I do) this is about papering over some major issues; he believes it is a European banking issue that makes the US banking system afraid to lend overnight because nobody knows who is exposed to said banking issue.

  • Hong Kong: quiet for the 3rd straight week following the local elections where the pro-democracy candidates won in a landslide. Tea-leaf-readers are suggesting that Carrie Lam will be replaced soon.

  • Iran: has found a new way to irritate the US: it is ordering the Iraqi paramilitary forces that it helped create and support to attack other Iraqi forces inside Iraq. (Iran: Shiites, Iraq: divided between Sunnis in the north and Shiites in the south). The US has a “red line”: the death or injury of a US citizen in any of these attacks. Such red lines are potentially useful for anyone looking to provoke a war between the US and Iran.  Who might that be? It is a fairly short list.  https://www.npr.org/2019/12/12/787377987/u-s-military-official-warns-of-dangerous-escalation-in-iran-backed-attacks-on-ir

  • Italy – migration: no news.

  • BRExit: Johnson and the Tories convincingly won the election held this week. Johnson now has a 40-seat majority in Parliament; passing his withdrawal agreement should be a simple matter. This should reduce the uncertainty in both the UK and the continent. My guess is, this event will lead to a modest economic recovery for the UK and the EU.  Scheduled Brexit date: January 31.

  • Yield Curve Inversion: the 1-10 spread rose +2 bp to +29 bp this week. 1Y: 1.53% (-4 bp), 10Y: 1.82% (-2 bp).

  • North Korea: The DPRK UN Ambassador declared that denuking North Korea is now off the table, and that lengthy talks with the US are not needed. The US warned North Korea against any resumption of “unfortunate ill-advised behavior”. Looks like things are going downhill. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa/u-s-warns-north-korea-against-ill-advised-behavior-as-deadline-looms-idUSKBN1YG10L

Recession Watch

  • Retail Sales: headline +0.26% m/m (prior +0.51% m/m) retail sales (ex-autos): +0.12% m/m (prior +0.31% m/m). Slowing, but not (yet) recessionary. It does not look like a particularly good “retail Christmas.”

  • Producer Prices: headline +0.25% m/m (prior +0.15% m/m) -1.01% y/y. Rising, not recessionary.

  • CPI: headline +0.26% m/m (prior +0.35% m/m) +2.02% y/y CPI less-food/energy: +0.23% m/m (prior +0.16% m/m) +2.09% y/y housing: +0.03% m/m (prior -0.02% m/m) +2.40% y/y medical care: +0.25% m/m (prior +0.83% m/m) +3.72% y/y education: +0.01% m/m (prior +0.19% m/m) +2.07% y/y. Rising, perhaps a bit inflationary.

Summary

So last week I stated that the US-China trade deal was not likely to happen. Naturally, it actually happened this week. This, alongside the surprise agreement by the House Democrats to pass the USMCA (while conducting Impeachment!), the Tory victory in the UK which would seem to facilitate an orderly Brexit, all of this week’s events point at a decrease in economic uncertainty in the near to medium term, which should be positive for both confidence as well as related economic activity.

But what happened to gold, silver, and the miners? Well, they rallied, with the miners doing the best of all, breaking out to a new multi-year closing high. That’s unexpected, and a positive sign for PM overall. They have started to diverge from bonds, which are now looking weaker than the metals.

What’s more, the SPX rally may be slowing; copper is a potential tell. After rallying for the last couple of weeks, and jumping to a new all time high on Thursday, Friday’s move in copper was reasonably ugly; it fell more than 1%, and the bearish engulfing candle looked pretty unpleasant (40% bearish). Why would copper sell off like this after the deal was announced? Well, that’s a classic sell-the-news behavior; the deal-signing was already priced in, and now traders are taking profits.

If we assume copper is a proxy for “China deal enthusiasm”, Friday’s possible copper reversal doesn’t bode so well for equities going forward. We may not have a lot of good news left.

The economic reports this week showed weakening (but still positive) retail sales, a somewhat hot CPI, a Fed that has become an “inflation cheerleader”, and rising producer prices. This, plus the rising commodity index hints at a potential inflationary surprise if my predictions of expansion following the resolution of Brexit/US-China trade come to pass. If this happens, it would be quite bearish for longer-duration bonds – and mortgage rates, and by extension, the housing market.

Not-QE continues; the $30 billion in new cash this week is an ongoing attempt by the Fed to paper over “something.” Powell had to answer two (2) questions about repo at this week’s press conference. A close observation of Powell’s response (I watched the conference twice – I only picked up this detail the second time around) revealed that Powell was reading from a script for his answer. Powell is a fantastic extemporaneous speaker, but apparently this answer was so critical, the Fed felt it needed to script the reply – but at the same time, they didn’t want it to appear important enough to add to the FOMC announcement at 2pm, or to Powell’s lead-in statement. Go watch the question, and Powell’s answer, and see what I mean. So far, the Fed has printed $340 billion dollars since August. This should be a big fat hairy deal, and they are bending over backwards to make this thing seem as small as possible.

https://youtu.be/GGae2FO4t6U?t=696

Big bar premiums on gold have declined, and the big COMEX silver bars at the dealer I watch are back in stock. ETF discounts have increased somewhat.

Gold OI fell this week; the commercials did a fair amount of short-covering. That’s a positive sign, but according to the COT, we are nowhere near a bullish reversal point for gold.

Weekly trends:

item period trend strength change
GC.CW week up +0.24 +0.33
SI.V week up +0.12 +0.27
$XAU.N week strong up +0.52 +0.16
HG.V week strong up +0.51 -0.09
PL.V week up +0.21 +0.10
DX.CW week down -0.25 -0.06
CL.CW week strong up +0.41 +0.18
$SPX.N week strong up +0.46 +0.02
$NDX.N week strong up +0.37 +0.11
$DJI.N week up +0.09 -0.13
DGS10 week down -0.14 -0.06
BTC.USD week slight down -0.03 +0.13

Note: If you’re reading this and are not yet a member of Peak Prosperity’s Gold & Silver Group, please consider joining it now. It’s where our active community of precious metals enthusiasts have focused discussions on the developments most likely to impact gold & silver. Simply go here and click the “Join Today” button.

  • Sun, Dec 15, 2019 - 06:19am

    #2
    phusg

    phusg

    Status Silver Member (Offline)

    Joined: Jul 16 2014

    Posts: 152

    count placeholder2+

    the never exit Brexit

Thanks Dave.

…the UK election which appears as though it will bring about an end to the apparently-eternal Brexit process within the next few months.

I agree the election brings a bit more predictability, but on the 31st of January the transition period (or phase 2 if you will) of Brexit starts, with the UK remaining part of the EU single market and customs union for at least the rest of 2020, only without decision-making power or representation.

I previously thought the EU would end up introducing tariffs, but apparently they’re first going to try to gain British compliance to European environmental regulations, state aid policies, and labour market laws; in exchange for a free trade deal and effectively securing the softest possible Brexit.

Even though Johnson is no longer beholden to the DUP on the one side or hard brexiteers on the other I’m concerned that he’ll still want more freedom to strike his own trade deals with non-EU countries and will end up rejecting this soft Brexit. I don’t see either the EU or the UK winning in this scenario, only the non-EU countries that Johnson rushes trade deals through with.

  • Sun, Dec 15, 2019 - 07:14am   (Reply to #2)

    #3

    davefairtex

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 2134

    count placeholder4+

    re: the never exit Brexit

phusg-

I don’t think the 11-month delay means much if anything.  It will take a while for the UK to negotiate trade agreements with the other nations.  They can all be structured to take effect once that period ends.  Once the treaties are negotiated, maybe its a 5-month waiting period?  That’s no time at all.

The wildcard in all of this are the banks in the EU.  If Armstrong is right, and the EU banks are teetering on the edge (after 10 years of 0% rates have crushed their profitability, and kept alive all those zombie companies, and killed off any productivity increase), it could mess up all the EU’s calculations if they have trouble in 2020 – if this repo crisis is really all about the EU banks.  If the EU banks go tits up, the EU loses all leverage.  They won’t be able to afford any distractions.  Heck, the UK might find itself negotiating with a defunct entity if things get really bad.  And all of the Brexit preparations will prove to be quite fortuitous.

But even absent a black swan, I think it will all be fine for the UK.  All the fear will end up having been overdone.  That’s just my sense.

The real big deal – at least for labor (vs “Labour”) – is to have control over the border again.  Limiting all that low cost labor into the country will be a big plus for them.  Assuming it actually happens.

  • Sun, Dec 15, 2019 - 12:30pm

    #4

    davefairtex

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 2134

    count placeholder3+

    Phase One Deal: Balding's Analysis

This analysis from an American economist who lived in China for 10 years – and after reading his other stuff, has some really keen observations on what things on the ground there are really like, as well as how the overall economy and government perform, and how that will likely influence how this all ends up.

Executive summary: the US probably expects the whole thing to blow up – China will probably cheat, as they tend do – but the US retains plenty of leverage if this happens.  And who knows – maybe they won’t, and if they don’t, it is a good step forward.  The whole piece is worth reading:

https://www.baldingsworld.com/2019/12/15/unpacking-the-no-deal-not-a-trade-war-trade-war-deal/

If we take what is known about the deal, its role as a Phase I deal leading to later deals, and assume it gets executed as described, with each side living up to their commitments, I think it is fair to describe this deal as a solid step forward. Realistically however, each side seems to be positioning themselves for the expected failure of the agreement and little reason to believe the deal will be executed as described. The Trump administration has maintained significant leverage if China does not follow through on its commitments and I have little realistic reason to believe China will meet its commitments. At the end of the day in any contentious negotiation, it comes down to placing risk adjust trust in your counterpart to execute their side of the agreement. Each side is signaling they have little faith in their counterpart. If we start from that premise, the Trump administration seems to have positioned themselves well expecting this deal to eventually collapse but also lower tariffs if by chance China does abide by it commitments.

 

  • Sun, Dec 15, 2019 - 01:08pm

    #5

    davefairtex

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 2134

    count placeholder8+

    Glenn Greenwald annihilates Crossfire Hurricane

You need to read this.

It appears as though Greenwald is one of the few true “liberals” remaining who isn’t smooching it up with the intelligence agencies (or the former hacks therefrom).

https://theintercept.com/2019/12/12/the-inspector-generals-report-on-2016-fb-i-spying-reveals-a-scandal-of-historic-magnitude-not-only-for-the-fbi-but-also-the-u-s-media/

… The IG Report leaves no doubt about it. It’s brimming with proof of FBI subterfuge and deceit, all in service of persuading a FISA court of something that was not true: that U.S. citizen and former Trump campaign official Carter Page was an agent of the Russian government and therefore needed to have his communications surveilled.

The whole point of this FISA warrant is the two-hop rule.  Once you get permission from FISA to spy on the lowly Page, you get to see the electronic “take” on anyone up to two hops away from him.  Which basically means anyone on the Trump campaign, including Trump himself.  Emails, phone calls, who knows – maybe browsing history – everything scooped up by the NSA and stored “for later” in their campaign to “collect everything from everybody.”

1 FISA warrant means you can watch 1 x 80 (hop 1) x 80 (hop 2) = 6400 people’s electronic communications.  You can go into the past, too.  That’s because the NSA stores literally everything they collect.

A FISA warrant is a license to dig into everything about what an entire group of people are doing – and has done.  This is NOT just about Carter Page.

  • Sun, Dec 15, 2019 - 11:46pm

    #6

    davefairtex

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 2134

    count placeholder8+

    Horowitz Report – source documents

480 pages – (lightly) redacted for public release.  170 interviews – 100 witnesses – one million documents.  It sounds intimidating, but – honestly – if you have maybe 30 minutes, read the first section.  Seriously, read it.  There is no substitute for reading the primary source documents.  I laughed out loud about ten different times.

https://www.justice.gov/storage/120919-examination.pdf

Helpful translations when reading the document:

  • “inaccurate assertion” = a lie
  • “omitted” = covered up
  • “we were concerned” = our bullshit meter was pegged at maximum
  • “revealed potentially serious problems” = more lies

Comey describes things as “sloppy”, and yet – in bureaucratic language, Horowitz accuses the members of Crossfire Hurricane with lying, omitting critical details that would have jeopardized getting the warrant, not getting corroboration from people they knew would blow the deal (like Steele’s FBI handler), and so on.  While the IG “found no evidence” of political bias, all of the “failures” of the team were all weighted against Trump.  Flip a coin 20 times, get “tails” 20 times.  It literally was the most generous possible assessment he could have made in view of the facts, which I found to be both professionally laid out, and incredibly damning.

During the period this report covers, the media – and people like Shiff, and former CIA director (now CNN paid contributor) Brennan – were asserting they had knowledge of evidence of Trump’s collusion with Russia.  Now you get to read what the FBI knew, and more importantly, when they knew it.

Executive summary: it was utter bullshit.

My guess: the team knowingly engaged in all this chicanery in hopes that the FISA warrant would uncover something material.  “Point me at the person, and I will find the crime.”  No crime was found.  They gambled and lost, attempting to use our incredibly intrusive national security apparatus to try and effect political change.

Some nuggets:

…the Crossfire Hurricane team failed to inform Department[OJ] officials of significant information that was available to the team at the time that the FISA applications were drafted and filed. Much of that information was inconsistent with, or undercut, the assertions contained in the FISA applications that were used to support probable cause and, in some instances, resulted in inaccurate information being included in the applications.  [“the team knowingly lied to get the FISA app”]

We determined that the Crossfire Hurricane team’s receipt of Steele’s election reporting on September 19, 2016 played a central and essential role in the FBI’s and Department’s decision to seek the FISA order. [“No dossier = no FISA.”].

On September 19, 2016, the same day that the Crossfire Hurricane team first received Steele’s election reporting, the team contacted FBI OGC again about seeking a FISA order for Page and specifically focused on Steele’s reporting in drafting the FISA request.  [“Received dossier = sought FISA that same day.”]

…the FISC Rules of Procedure and FBI policy required that the Carter Page FISA applications contain all material facts… FBI policy guidance states that a fact is “material” if it is relevant to the court’s probable cause determination. Additionally, FBI policy mandates that the case agent ensure that all factual statements in a FISA application are “scrupulously accurate.” [“total failure to adhere to FBI policy”]

In support of the fourth element in the FISA application-Carter Page’s alleged coordination with the Russian government on 2016 U.S. presidential election activities-the application relied entirely on the following information from Steele Reports 80, 94, 95, and 102.  [“No Steele dossier = no FISA”]

Omitted the finding from a FBI source validation report that Steele was suitable for continued operation but that his past contributions to the FBI’s criminal program had been “minimally corroborated,” and instead continued to assert in the source characterization statement that Steele’s prior reporting had been “corroborated and used in criminal proceedings”.  [“made stuff up to make Steele sound credible.”]

But don’t just believe my snippets.  You really should read it.  Just the first section.  After all, we paid for the thing, right?

Nothing beats a source document.  Not Lindsey Graham, not CNN, and not even Glenn Greenwald.

  • Mon, Dec 16, 2019 - 07:41am   (Reply to #5)

    #7

    000

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Dec 10 2013

    Posts: 171

    count placeholder

    re: Glenn Greenwald annihilates Crossfire Hurricane

Mr. Greenwald is an investigative journalist. Interesting how when you disagree with someone they are a “liberal” [pejorative] rendering the term meaningless.

Also interesting is how this FISA has suddenly become an issue of fairness now, when it’s being used on a fake blond.

Do blondes still have more…fun?

[ I’m still here… muuaahahaha]

  • Mon, Dec 16, 2019 - 08:13am   (Reply to #5)

    #8

    davefairtex

    Status Member (Offline)

    Joined: Sep 03 2008

    Posts: 2134

    count placeholder6+

    re: re: Glenn Greenwald annihilates Crossfire Hurricane

Newsboy – you are confused.

I’m a big fan of investigative journalists.  And “true liberal” journalists, who hold the CIA NSA and FBI to account – in the tradition dating back to the 60s, where powerful governmental organizations were viewed with suspicion.  As they should be.

Its the “fake liberal” journalists I despise.  You know, the ones who are – this very minute – all smoochy with Brennan and Clapper and the three letter agencies because they think they’ll somehow make Trump go away.

Its called a Faustian Bargain.  One that – pretty clearly – Greenwald was unwilling to make.

Which is why, in my eyes, Greenwald remains an authentic liberal instead of a “fake” liberal.  He maintains his standards of journalistic integrity regardless of who is in power.

I think there are about three left.

Hope that clarifies.

  • Mon, Dec 16, 2019 - 11:56am

    #9

    sand_puppy

    Status Platinum Member (Offline)

    Joined: Apr 13 2011

    Posts: 2409

    count placeholder2+

    The assassination of Lady Justice

So here is what is at stake.  The ideal of Lady Justice.

Or more accurately, that the Law Enforcement / Judicial System is the legitimate sword of Lady Justice.

Since the 16th century, Lady Justice has often been depicted wearing a blindfold. The blindfold represents impartiality, the ideal that justice should be applied without regard to wealth, power, or other status.  Her sword represents the power of authority to enforce her judgement–the law enforcement and judicial systems.

So what if LE lies for a good cause?  Say you have an obnoxious president that is offensive to many decent people, and you think should be replaced?  Isn’t this a higher moral principle that the impartiality of Lady Justice?

Is OK for Law Enforcement to fabricate evidence if it is done for a noble cause?

The danger of such an approach is a schism between the ideals of Lady Justice, and the legitimacy of the Law Enforcement community as her sword of enforcement.   That Law enforcement serves only justice.

If this connection is broken, civilization is lost.

  • Mon, Dec 16, 2019 - 12:45pm   (Reply to #5)

    #10

    000

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

    Joined: Dec 10 2013

    Posts: 171

    count placeholder

    re: re: re: Glenn Greenwald annihilates Crossfire Hurricane

Thanks for the clarification. My misreading. Agree that the problem then is one of political appropriation of “liberal” by the “corporate class” or neo-liberals and re-enforced daily by “liberal” and “conservative” news readers and pundits (bought and paid for by _____ Corp).

Communication leads to community–that is, to understanding, intimacy and mutual valuing. 

–Ralph Waldo Emerson

Viewing 10 posts - 1 through 10 (of 17 total)

Login or Register to post comments