PM Weekly Market Commentary – 06/26/2020
“Paranoia strikes deep Into your life it will creep It starts when you’re always afraid You step out of line, the man come and take you away.”
I know, it is hard to know if I’m on crack, stressed out from too much lockdown, or if I might actually have something real. Just so you know, in my locale, we are just about back to normal again. I can go to the gym, get a drink at a bar (outside), go sit down at a restaurant, and we have very few cases, if any. My gym is open, my body is back to where it was before (maybe +2kg or so), and my stress level is way down.
Part of my problem is the apparent ease that my location had in making the virus go away. It colors my thinking. There are mysteries about this whole situation which are as yet unsolved. Even now. I don’t have the hard data though, so I am forced to guess.
The US is definitely having case spikes. I understand why now – the paper on herd immunity makes it much clearer for me. Lockdowns stop the super-spreaders. Open things back up, and if they weren’t taken out prior to lockdown, they start super-spreading again. The paper was key to my understanding. That, and seeing that NYC has had no such spike. Not even a little bump. Same with New Jersey.
I think better testing means the younger, not-at-risk people who are being fearless, are now being tested, but of course they aren’t dying all that much. (Member George  posted about his experience. It sounded annoying, but – I’ve had worse experience with influenza). So we’re seeing lower CFRs (because of more identified Cases), but my guess is, the death counts will rise, but it won’t be anything like what happened in NYC. We’re smarter now, even if we are fighting with one hand tied behind our backs.
Now then. Conspiracy.
It is clear that this is a long-awaited event that is being jumped on by certain people who seek to turn it to their advantage. Evidence? Gates had that “event 201” in October 2019, “planning for a pandemic.” Clearly, he has been thinking about this event for a while. I haven’t been thinking about it. Have you? Anyone here? Any of us planning for a pandemic? He has.
From just the point of view of the market, I did pretty well during the drop. And the rebound. I was coming into this situation cold, taking things on the fly. If I had a plan, if I had a playbook, if I wasn’t stuck in the middle of the whole thing, how much better could I have done? My. Probably a lot better. And if I had a certain amount of influence over the actions of the principal actors? And access to intelligence? Mind = boggled.
There is a playbook being run. Some people have really prepared for this event. Wouldn’t it be interesting to see what’s inside that playbook? The private one, I mean, not the fluffy stuff for public consumption.
I just don’t know what’s in his playbook. Presumably he funds the stuff he is interested in, and thinks is important.
I remember his playbook from 1980-2000. It was pretty unpleasant. I’m biased though, I was always on the other side of the fence.
His actions at GAVI sure seem to suggest money still matters a lot to him. Control too. Isn’t that what we are seeing now? A lot of effort spent on maximizing income, and control?
I have a personal friend who is now a pulmonary cripple after a “mild” case of COVID. She can only walk 100 feet without stopping to rest. She cannot make a sandwich in her kitchen without sitting on a stool positioned in the middle of her kitchen.
Can you tell us whether this person used the hydroxychloroquine cocktail or not? Thank you, Jim
Here is the problem with conspiracy theories….there is not a damn thing you can do about it.
Of course there are people conspiring against other people; the rich have always conspired against the poor…but what can you do about it? Buy Gold? The rich own the market that controls the price of gold, and the market for dollars that gold is valued in.
The news is just marketing. The producers at these networks care about one thing, advertising revenue. I mean that seems blatantly obvious but most people are completely blind to it.
You are definitely a smart guy DF, but so is my buddy and his wife. What if you do find the evidence that you seek, what then? Does this knowledge benefit you or harm you?
More importantly, does it hinder or help you to see the truth in the future?
There is one thing that obscures the truth from each one us, our self-image. I’m not talking in the context of Zen here but of evolutionary biology. Self-image used to be a tool to aid in the reproduction of our genes (survival) but in modern society it is more of a detriment to our survival. When we define ourselves we also define the world we live in.
Right now your saying “Geezus JAG, don’t you think your overreacting with all this bullsh*t? All I’m doing looking into this Bill Gates butthole”.
You might be correct to think that, and normally I would find your work harmless, but we don’t live in normal times right now. People don’t need any more reasons to hate others, and you have a significant influence on many people.
Can we just talk about gold miners or something? They are rocking today, lol.
Here is the problem with conspiracy theories….there is not a damn thing you can do about it.
I have hydroxychloroquine on the shelf and will take it if I get sick along with the other drugs in the Zelenko protocol. It took a lot of effort to get this.. because I was working against a deep state operation that has many doctors fearful to prescribe, even though they have given it out like candy for years to people with Lupus or RA. So… Although I likely will be fine without it (Vit. D, etc) I still have it to insure that I don’t die. So that is how I used my knowledge of the conspiracy.. that’s what I did about it.
I still believe that the US has a chance to throw off the Deep State.. get rid of the residual control of the mass media. Just because your friends have overdosed on the cognitive dissonance that often comes from recognition of the deep state doesn’t mean we should just pretend it doesn’t exist. Your entire argument comes down to just saying that life is better if you stay in the matrix.
Very interesting. I don;t think the numbers of cases are going up because of more testing alone. That does not explain the large increases in hospitalizations.
According to Dr. Seheult the drop in deaths is likely due to better treatment. ie. not slapping someone on a vent, remdesivir, the MATH protocol, increase in Vit D supplementation etc. He does leave the door open to numerous possibilities.
Everyone likes to be first with the correct assessment so that they can then say “see I told you so. I am brilliant aren’t I” There is far too much still unknown to say definitely, to say unequivocally what the numbers reflect. We are very early in this pandemic to predict what the eventual CFR, IFR, permanent damage is or even if we will have this virus forever like HIV, Chickenpox, the common cold.
As far as conspiracy theories go, certainly the largest player is Gates. It is clear that he has spent most of his time since forming his foundation buying influence at the highest levels of the medical establishment. That is not a theory it is a fact. We can surmise what his agenda is by looking at his efforts and statements. What to do is another question?
As stated in the movie “Eddie and the Cruisers” Wordman they find oil under our garden? All we get is dead tomatoes”
We all like different things in life.
I design systems for fun and profit. I like to construct models for how things work. Jim and I had “some difficulties” early on (!) because we had differing ideas about how stuff worked, mostly having to do with the banksters and the gold market. As time passed, I ended up moving more towards his side of the fence on such things, because that’s how the evidence turned out.
That’s my process. I start out with my opinions, and I refine them as new evidence appears. My goal: to get a model that describes reality as closely as possible. “Being right” isn’t important; “having the model be right” is all that counts.
I like it when you guys challenge the model. You guys often find flaws in my thinking. That can only help. That’s how I designed systems in the old days – I’d run around to everyone and get their input, mush it all together, and the system would appear, as if by magic.
Today, I find myself confronted with a whole new set of rules about how things work. There is stuff at play that I just didn’t realize, and they aren’t small things. When this happens, I run around trying to figure out the missing pieces. I don’t like it when my model has flaws, any more than I like it when my code has bugs.
You guys get to see this process at work in real time. I’m hard at work, refining my model for how stuff works. I get things wrong, I correct it; with the proper model, the idea is, I can predict the future, at least to some degree anyway. And you guys poke at it, which helps it resolve properly.
New model modification possibility this week: US Treasury debt outstanding might be around $100 trillion dollars. Whoa. I think I need to rearrange my portfolio a bit to deal with this one. Replace that money market mutual fund with PSLV – that’s my first instinct.
So, in answer to your question, “how will it help?” Knowing the truth of how things work always makes me feel better. I do agree with your unstated question, “does it make you feel better to hate people.” No, it doesn’t. Ideally I would like to retain my equanimity while learning a whole bunch of new (and generally pretty disagreeable) things about how the world actually works.
That last part is a work in progress.
Here’s another article, with data from Italy:
In a study in Italy, which was one of the first European countries to be hit by the coronavirus, doctors are scanning the lungs of people three months after they fell ill. Although the full results aren’t yet in, Paolo Spagnolo at the University Hospital of Padua estimates that 15 to 20 per cent of those treated in intensive care at his hospital for covid-19 have scarring.
So 15-20% of people in Italy that went through the ICU will end up with a permanent problem. Good, that provides grounding.
The following article looked helpful too. Some function will be recovered, some won’t, and you can exercise control over at least some of the variables by taking care of yourself.
After listening to the Skidmore podcast, the first thing that came to mind is that the $90T missing is only the tip of the iceberg. My response is to follow something Chris has preached forever – get dollars into primary assets. Dave mentioned gold, silver, and RE. Good place to start.
After reading and rereading several of the posts on this thread, I am wondering where the money has gone. Lots of possibilities, but I suspect a healthy slice of it went to support agendas none of us care about. CAF talks about a breakaway civilization – strip assets (and leave lots of liabilities) from the old dying civilization (good old US of A) and transfer it into something new. Sure feels like that is taking place.
Keep connecting those dots Dave. And sharing your thoughts. You are uniquely equipped to do that.
Long term follower here; long term appreciative of your value-added content. Never registered until now.
I did not particularly appreciate the comments with the “loosing your mind” angle, although they might be well intentioned, looking for your well being. I think you are raising the right questions. I am in the same process as there is very low probability that recent events are fortuitous and possibly an agenda is backing most of them.
IMHO we live in a cognitive dissonance world: the one prevailing policywise, is the massmedia-WHO- aligned powers created. This narrative sits mainly in a “virus” + contagions, deaths… the latter being directly related to the former. We are unlucky because this virus has no unequivocal symptoms: cough, headache, fever etc.. are all shared with many illnesses. We are unlucky too because some people have it and are ok, others don’t and are ill. We do not clearly know how it gets transmitted either. Koch postulates have been conveniently put aside.
Everything sits on a PCR test. Which by the way, its discoverer says it cannot be used for virus alignment and sequenciation. Serologic etc… tests are not good enough (said by the manufacturers themselves).
Anyway, I am keen on tech papers indexed in PubMed, not afraid of the tech details so I deep dived in the COVID “virus” RT-PCR analysis topic (with Peter Duesberg, Kary Mullis and Stefan Lanka on my mind). Because of the explained above, I consider the PCR tests the small base in the inverted Exter pyramid, on which all depends on. It needs to be proven, beyond a doubt, a certain illness is caused (not just correlated) to a certain “virus”. Robert Koch was no fool.
I recommend you all do the same. Specifically find answers about COVID primers (Chinese…), COVID PCR gold standards (what are these), details about the “isolated” and sequenciated “virus”, specificity of the RT-PCR test etc…
Maybe Trump saying he is removing funds for COVID testing will start to make more sense.
After deep diving this, all loosing minds thoughts go away. Believe me.