PM Weekly Market Commentary – 06/26/2020

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  • Sun, Jun 28, 2020 - 12:54pm

    #12
    phusg

    phusg

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    PM Weekly Market Commentary – 06/26/2020

Great explanation Dave, now even I (think I) understand. The focus on super-spreaders makes a lot of sense, with Covids strong capability for asympomatic cases meaning a lower HIT percentage.

I’m not sure these super-spreaders are necessarily charming/popular/extrovert people though as even opposite types normally come within Covid range of an awful lot of people, assuming they use public transport and/or work in an office or public facing job. Maybe the super-spreader profile would be along the lines of:

  • Highly contagious
  • Asymptomatic
  • Not belonging to a risk group and so more willing to take exposure risks
  • and/or not believing in the case for curbing personal liberties?

Best case scenario for the herd is that super-spreaders develop immunity fairly quickly and then retain it or take the bullet so to speak. I’m doubtful this is the case with this one though so I’m still rooting for the vaccine companies from that perspective.

Best case scenario for the heath insurance/tax payers of the world would be that the vaccine comes from a company not involved in any of the dirty tactics or that the dirty tactics come to light and the vaccine gets (inter)nationalised.

  • Sun, Jun 28, 2020 - 01:05pm

    #13
    Nate

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    Mark Skidmore podcast

Three years ago, Michigan State Economics Professor Mark Skidmore revealed there was $21 trillion in what he calls “Missing Money” from the Department of Defense (DOD) and Housing and Urban Development (HUD). This was a stunning revelation and the biggest auditing discovery in the history of accounting, but now this revelation comes in second with Dr. Skidmore’s latest update to the “Missing Money” question which is now the biggest in history by a long shot.  Skidmore’s research reveals the US Treasury market is rolling over $90 trillion to support the official debt of $22 trillion (2019).  Why do you need to churn $90 trillion in debt?  Is the US debt really $90 trillion?  Skidmore says, “It’s not that we are moving to short term debt that would need more turn over.  That’s not it.  The only other explanation I can come up with is that the federal government, the Treasury, is supporting more debt with the reissuance than is officially recognized.  I am floating this around and asking people to have a look at this and tell me if there is some other possible explanation.  I don’t know of one. . . . This is a discrepancy.  Why do we have $22 trillion in debt, but $90 trillion in reissuance?”

Skidmore goes on to say, “It’s possible that over the years, we spent a lot more money than is acknowledged.  The implications of that are very important.  Is it fraud?  I have tried really hard to get information, and it’s been quite an experience.  This make you question the structure of the system.  Is this fraud?  I have to be able to prove it, but I have documents that say something is really, really wrong, and it’s not just bad accounting.”

What could go wrong with this much hidden debt?  Skidmore says, “Yes, it is concerning to me because this could blow up.  We don’t know when or how, but if people lose confidence in our government, they could lose confidence in the currency.  That could have severe impacts on lots of people in the whole global economy above and beyond what we are experiencing now. . . . Is there some reset in play?  Is there some bigger issue at stake?  Is this pulling away with other goals in mind?  Yes, I think so.  I don’t know how this all fits together, but I do know there is something else going on that we all need to pay attention to.

Is US Debt Really $90 Trillion? – Mark Skidmore

  • Mon, Jun 29, 2020 - 12:09am

    #13

    davefairtex

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    Microsoft and The FUD Campaign

Back in the day (1980s-2000), Microsoft was the master of the FUD campaign.  FUD = Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt.  They’d use this technique – extremely effectively – to smash market faith in competing products using lies and chicanery, in order to first establish and then maintain their monopoly on the PC operating system environment.  There’s a reason MS is at the top of the heap: sadly, features & quality are not the reason.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear,_uncertainty,_and_doubt#Microsoft

[Full Disclosure: as a result of this tidal wave of FUD I had to endure during that time, I refuse to use Microsoft products to this day.  I am a proponent of free software, such as Linux; my servers are all Linux.  My desktop is a Mac. Not free, but infinitely better than MS.  I will not use Microsoft products.  Not Word, not Excel, not Windows.  I digress.]

I see the same techniques in operation today with SC2.  Someone – and you can guess who that might be – is using the same exact “FUD” strategy that worked so very well in the 80s and 90s in the PC world, in order to seize control over a new market.

But instead of targeting just consumers of computing gear, this person is targeting every living soul on earth.  And it is not just your desktop that is at stake, subject to never-ending software updates in order to keep the box from becoming infected.  Now, it is your life.  You are the market being targeted.  Same guy, same techniques, new market.

This guy has enlisted the “aid” of our institutions, using a firehose of grant money.  Lots of butter for all their bread.  This technique works great.  They are now his FUD amplifier.

You don’t want people to use masks?  Well, then masks don’t work.  You don’t like cheap, competitive products like HCQ?  Well, then the FUD amplifier is employed to say that HCQ not only doesn’t work, it actually kills people!

So what can we do?  Like the open source pioneers two decades ago, we must chart our own course.  We must trust ourselves.  Just like Chris says.  No bullshit here.  Our lives are at stake, not just our desktops.  Don’t fall for the FUD campaign.

If some news item makes you feel scared – that’s probably the FUD campaign at work.  Look closely at who the source for this information is.  Have they lied to you before?  If so – then its probably FUD campaign material.

Does HCQ + AZ + zinc work as a treatment?  Yes.  Will our antibodies continue to keep us mostly safe?  Probably, yes.  How about exercise, vitamins, proper diet?  Definitely, yes.  HCQ work as prophylaxis?  Yes.  Herd immunity?  Yes: 20%.  We aren’t all alike.

After two decades of FUD campaign from 1980-2000, lots of people still continue to choose Microsoft products.  In large part, the FUD campaign worked.

But today?  You don’t have to use Microsoft.  Or the new products, promoted by the same guy’s FUD campaign.

And even if you do decide you want to try one of this guy’s new products that he has terrified you into using with his FUD campaign, I advise you to wait until all the bugs are out.  Typically, the first version of a brand new product is packed with all sorts of bugs.  Wait for version 2.  Maybe even version 2.1.

Let someone else be the guinea pig.  Don’t be in a rush.  Watch what happens to those “early adopters” first.  This isn’t a desktop we’re talking about.

What’s more, this guy does NOT have a history of shipping quality products.

If he had a quality product, he wouldn’t need to use fear, uncertainty, and doubt to win.

  • Mon, Jun 29, 2020 - 06:21am

    #14

    JAG

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    Re: Microsoft and The FUD Campaign

You lost me on that one buddy, and I’ve been a Mac guy since 1984, lol.

There really has only ever been one conspiracy, everything else is just a derivative of it.

But this conversation is way too deep for a Monday morning. I need some coffee.

  • Mon, Jun 29, 2020 - 07:02am

    #15

    davefairtex

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    connecting dots

JAG-

Well, sometimes I connect dots that nobody else sees.  🙂  Sometimes they don’t exist, and sometimes I’m just a teensy bit outside the Overton Window.

I wouldn’t have said any of this six months ago.

Let’s just see how it plays out.  Someone is running a FUD campaign, using SC2 as the raw material.  It could just be happening in order just to sell vaccines.  It could be…more than that.

Just don’t fall for the FUD campaign.  That’s my only message.

 

  • Mon, Jun 29, 2020 - 07:38am

    #16

    davefairtex

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    missing money

The missing money interview is fascinating.

Skidmore is coming at this from a different angle.  Assuming we can’t get the details on how much money is missing from the accounting, perhaps we can get a sense as to what the total debt is, by looking at the issuance rate at Treasury.  After all, the auctions show real money going in, every week.  Simple math will tell us how many treasury bills, bonds, and notes they sell.

Turns out, the amount is $90 trillion in bond sales during the 2019 year.

Some more simple math tells us this issuance is enough to fund … a much bigger debt than the US currently acknowledges.  Skidmore estimates that our acknowledged debt of $22 trillion would take (probably) a $16 trillion yearly total issuance.  More math: 90 x 22 / 16 = 123 trillion dollar debt?  That just seems absurdly large.  But that’s what the math says.

https://missingmoney.solari.com/missing-money-update-may-2020/

Regardless of the actual figure, this is more evidence of a really large amount of missing money – money spent by Treasury, and not authorized by Congress.

The banksters have to know, especially the ones involved as primary dealers.   The math just isn’t that hard to do.  This, most likely, is why none of them have ever gone to jail, for anything, in recent decades.  The Feds can’t possibly arrest them.  They know too much.  They’d pop the whole bubble.

I’m guessing much of the upper levels of official Washington knows.  Which makes prosecuting them for anything – problematic.

And then, our allies and enemies around the world – they probably know too.  Which kinda limits freedom of maneuver.

HRC?  Nobody can ever “lock her up.”  Comey?  Get out of jail free card.  Epstein?  He’s on a beach somewhere.

Once the system stops following the rules at the macro level, none of the rules apply to the individuals any longer.

Man.  Get gold.  At some point, this will all blow up.  Maybe sooner rather than later.  It sure seems to be the season for “disclosure” right now.

Remember way back when, almost in prehistory, we all trusted the WHO?  i.e. 6 months ago?

Things change fast these days.

  • Mon, Jun 29, 2020 - 01:01pm

    #17
    yagasjai

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    PM Weekly Market Commentary – 06/26/2020

“Once the super-spreaders (high exposure + highly susceptible people) are knocked out, the pandemic is over for that area.”

But if the highly susceptible people are all in self-quarantine, is the 10-20% herd immunity of those that haven’t been in quarantine enough to protect us once we venture back out? Seems to me that there is a segment of every population that has been in strict quarantine and if you have high suceptibility, you could still be at risk.

  • Mon, Jun 29, 2020 - 10:08pm

    #18

    davefairtex

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    quarantine & super spreaders

yagasjai-

But if the highly susceptible people are all in self-quarantine, is the 10-20% herd immunity of those that haven’t been in quarantine enough to protect us once we venture back out? Seems to me that there is a segment of every population that has been in strict quarantine and if you have high suceptibility, you could still be at risk.

[EDIT: I missed your point first time around.  Let me try again]

Herd immunity does not entirely eliminate the risk of catching COVID.  All it does is lower it.

Even with herd immunity, NYC still has cases.  Many fewer than before, but cases still are happening.  There is still risk for anyone who is high risk.  3.95 cases per 100,000 people is a 1.4% chance (annualized) to get COVID.  Compare that to the peak: 60/100k people, or a 20% (annualized) chance.  The local herd immunity has reduced your risk by – perhaps 15x.  That’s what herd immunity means: a much lower risk per unit time.  Is that too much risk?  That’s for you to figure out.

There won’t be any massive new spike, though, because the group of people that cause the spikes have already become immune.  That’s the primary bit of good news.  No new spikes, which means, a sustained lower-risk environment for you.

And if Cuomo does the contact tracing, he can lower the risk even further.  320 cases per day in the city may be few enough to track and treat.

If I were high risk, in NYC, I might consider taking HCQ as prophylaxis, to further reduce my risk.

Now, about my first response:

If your area goes into quarantine rapidly, you eliminate the chance to get herd immunity.  That’s because the super-spreaders don’t get the “chance” to become immune.  A quarantined city has an HIT approaching 60-70%, because everyone has the same (low) exposure profile, because a quarantine turns super-spreaders into “mostly-normal people.”

My guess: in NYC, super spreaders had the chance to get sick pre lockdown, and that’s why the region has herd immunity now.  It wasn’t Cuomo’s genius that has cases as low as they are now, the lockdowns came too late, which gave the super spreaders the time to catch the virus and (mostly) recover or (sometimes) die.

One public policy option for cities who went into lockdown too early: a big “measles party.”  Free beer & pizza, 5 days, loud music. Everyone mingles and has a good time.  Then wait a few more days, and hand out zinc + HCQ to everyone.  That’s a $10 vaccine, which should “mostly work.”

How would this go over?  Younger people might just go for it to get the fuss over with, have treatment on hand, early, and be given the best chance to have a good outcome.  If you know exactly when you catch the virus, calculating the time to begin treatment can make sure to nail the virus after you get antibodies, but before the virus has a chance to do real damage.  Catching the virus at some uncertain time in the future means a lot more uncertainty about treatment, timing, and so on.  Plus, if you wait, you might end up giving it to your friends and loved ones, which is not so nice.

  • Tue, Jun 30, 2020 - 01:41am

    #19

    Eannao

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    SC2 FUD motive

Hi Dave, interesting perspective on SC2 FUD. What do you think could be his motive for SC2 FUD? Obviously back in the day of the MS FUD, he was hungry for money and building his empire. But now he has more money than he could ever spend, so what’s the motive? You don’t buy the philanthropic story/image then?

  • Tue, Jun 30, 2020 - 02:42am

    #20

    Eannao

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    Man. Get gold.

Dave,

are you thinking to get gold instead of cash or treasuries or both? Thanks, E

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