PM Weekly Market Commentary – 01/17/2020

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  • Tue, Jan 21, 2020 - 06:31am

    #11

    davefairtex

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    silver intraday

Someone really wants silver to move lower right now.  I’m not sure why, but they really are working it over (down -0.43).  It has been pounded through the previous low at 17.69.

Will be interesting to see what the OI changes are at end of day.

EDIT: No doubt my whiny post will mark the low for the day.  🙂

EDIT2: day low (so far) was at 9:32 Eastern.  This looks to be an engineered setup for something, but I’m not sure what.

  • This reply was modified 1 month, 1 week ago by davefairtexdavefairtex.
  • This reply was modified 1 month, 1 week ago by davefairtexdavefairtex.

I’m not sure why,

I am.

Because (1) they make money doing it and (2) there are no consequences for price manipulation.

#Rigged

 

  • Tue, Jan 21, 2020 - 07:42am   (Reply to #11)

    #13
    phusg

    phusg

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    re: silver intraday

Looking at the kitco charts it looks like Palladium got hit for about 2% and that then dragged silver lower. I guess Palladium was overextended and due a correction – it’s still above where it was last week – although I can’t really say the same about silver. Gold’s already shrugged the whole thing off, wonder if silver will end up doing the same.

My early sense: perhaps a big player wanted to pick up some miners at a discount, so they pounded the cheap metals (i.e. silver & platinum) lower to cause a “support break” right at the open, which probably caused some initial selling in the mining shares in the first few minutes of trading – after this “support break”, silver rebounded sharply, as did the mining shares which are now well back into positive territory.

“Games people play.”

GDX +1.58%, GDXJ +1.52%, with silver still down -1.15% (-0.20).

 

  • Tue, Jan 21, 2020 - 11:38am

    #15

    davefairtex

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    new grey swan: Wuhan Coronavirus

Coronavirus.  CFR 2%.  (300 patients identified in China, 6 of whom have died).

Already took SPX down 10 points after news broke that the virus has landed in Washington State – brought back by someone who took a trip to Wuhan, China.  The patient was not identified.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/21/health/cdc-coronavirus.html

This could be the real deal.  It has the potential to be very infectious:

The more pressing and urgent question, he said: “How frequent is human-to-human transmission?”

In one instance a patient appears to have infected 14 health care workers in a medical facility, but that individual may have been a “super-spreader,” he said. “Could people with mild infections transmit this virus from person to person? That all remains still under investigation.”

An R0 of 14 … “that would be bad.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

Again.  This could be a big deal.  We just don’t know what the epidemiology of this thing is, and its already spread to the US.

  • Wed, Jan 22, 2020 - 06:58am   (Reply to #15)

    #16
    VeganDB12

    VeganDB12

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    a good source for up to date info on the new virus (from China!)

https://3g.dxy.cn/newh5/view/pneumonia?from=timeline&isappinstalled=0

Translation app required but stats are very up to date regarding spread in Asia with real time news feed.  I am not panicking and hopefully this will be somewhat contained but since it has spread throughout Asia and reached Russia and US it likely is elsewhere so full containment is clearly not an option.  It seems to be mutating but that can be a good thing if it becomes less virulent.

 

 

  • Wed, Jan 22, 2020 - 07:09am   (Reply to #15)

    #17

    Chris Martenson

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    re: new grey swan: Wuhan Coronavirus

Again.  This could be a big deal.  We just don’t know what the epidemiology of this thing is, and its already spread to the US.

The only way to stop it now would be to completely halt travel.

That would, of course, be bad for “the economy” so nobody wants to do that.  After all, there’s nothing more important than assuring that more fantasy money digits can exchange hands, right?

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