PM End of Week Market Commentary – 9/21/2018
On Friday, gold fell -8.64 [-0.71%] to 1205.94 on heavy volume, while silver dropped -0.04 [-0.31%] to 14.31 on very heavy volume. Both metals made new highs, but then were hit fairly hard. The buck did rally +0.32%, which didn’t help.
The big news of the week – at least for the metals – was that Trump became more specific about tariffs on Chinese products; on $200 billion, it will be 10% now, and 25% later. Chinese retaliation will focus on $60 billion in US products. China also canceled trade talks with the US and won’t send a delegation to Washington, but that last item happened on Saturday, after market close. The market seemed to treat all of the tariff news as “not as bad as it could have been.”
The metals sector map shows an explosion of buying in the metals, with copper up a ridiculous 8.6% this week alone. Juniors led seniors, and silver led gold – it was a bullish week for the metals group, with almost every item managing to cross back above the 9. Palladium is back above all 3 moving averages. Miners put in a solid performance. Gold did worst of all, barely managing to move higher.
|Name||Chart||Chg (W)||52w ch||MA9||MA50||MA200||50/200||Last Crossing||last|
|Copper||$COPPER||8.57%||-3.08%||rising||rising||falling||rising||ma50 on 2018-09-18||2018-09-21|
|Palladium||$PALL||7.72%||14.53%||rising||rising||rising||rising||ma200 on 2018-09-18||2018-09-21|
|Junior Miners||GDXJ||4.74%||-16.80%||rising||falling||falling||falling||ema9 on 2018-09-17||2018-09-21|
|Silver Miners||SIL||4.62%||-25.00%||rising||falling||falling||falling||ema9 on 2018-09-17||2018-09-21|
|Senior Miners||GDX||4.45%||-19.09%||rising||falling||falling||falling||ema9 on 2018-09-12||2018-09-21|
|Platinum||$PLAT||4.27%||-11.79%||rising||falling||falling||rising||ma50 on 2018-09-18||2018-09-21|
|Silver||$SILVER||1.63%||-15.82%||rising||falling||falling||falling||ema9 on 2018-09-19||2018-09-21|
|Gold||$GOLD||0.42%||-7.03%||rising||falling||falling||falling||ema9 on 2018-09-21||2018-09-21|
|Gold/Euro||$GOLD:$XEU||-0.21%||-5.53%||falling||falling||falling||falling||ema9 on 2018-09-20||2018-09-21|
Gold rose +5.33 [+0.44%] this week. Gold had been inching higher for much of the week, but Friday’s sell-off took gold back below its 9 MA, and also triggered a sell signal in the daily forecaster. Gold’s weekly still managed to issue a buy signal, as will the monthly if we close at these levels next week. In spite of gold’s lackluster performance this week, the longer term forecasters think that the low might just be in.
The September rate-increase chances rose to 94%. FOMC meeting is next week.
COMEX GC open interest rose +4,935 contracts this week.
COT report shows commercial net increased +1.6k: 2.1k new longs, and 423 new shorts. Managed money net fell by -7.2k, with 4.5k new shorts, and 2.6k fewer longs. Both commercial and managed money net positions remain at or near historical (bullish) extremes.
Silver rose +0.23 [+1.63%] this week, moving slowly but steadily higher all week long. Daily forecaster issued a buy signal on Tuesday, and by the end of the week, the weekly forecaster issued a buy signal also. As a result, silver ended this week in an uptrend in both the daily and weekly timeframes. Monthly remains in a downtrend. Silver has yet to break above its downtrend line.
The gold/silver ratio fell -0.99 to 84.15. That’s bullish.
COMEX SI open interest rose 1,600 contracts.
The commercial net position fell -3.5k, with 2.5k new shorts, and 993 fewer longs. Managed money net rose +1.3k, which was 2k fewer shorts and 738 longs sold. These were very minor changes. Commercial and managed money net positions remain at historical (bullish) extremes in silver also.
Miners shot up +4.21% on the week, following through on last week’s buy signal. Weekly forecaster issued a buy signal, putting the miners into an uptrend in both daily and weekly timeframes. Weekly chart also printed a swing low candle pattern, and XAU also broke above the downtrend line. The miner chart looks stronger than either gold or silver.
The GDX:$GOLD ratio rose +3.99% while the GDXJ:GDX ratio moved up +0.28%. That’s bullish.
The buck fell -1.11 [-1.17%] this week. Most of the damage happened on Thursday, although there was a pretty big loss on Monday too. This seemed to be driven by tariffs, where it looked as though the news caused a flight-to-safety unwind, at least to some degree anyway. The buck ended the week in a downtrend in both daily and weekly timeframes. The monthly is right on the edge of a sell signal as well. You can see that the buck is testing near-term support; a breakdown could lead to a fairly brisk sell-off in the buck.
SPX rose +24.69 [+0.85%] to 2929.67, making a new all time high on both Thursday and Friday. SPX ended the week in an uptrend in all 3 timeframes.
Weekly sector map shows materials and financials doing best, while utilities and homebuilders trailed. That suggests there were some pretty big interest rate moves this week – when rates rise, financials benefit, while builders and utilities do not.
VIX fell -0.39 to 11.68.
|Name||Chart||Chg (W)||52w ch||MA9||MA50||MA200||50/200||Last Crossing||last|
|Gold Miners||GDX||4.45%||-19.09%||rising||falling||falling||falling||ema9 on 2018-09-12||2018-09-21|
|Materials||XLB||1.94%||6.71%||rising||rising||rising||rising||ma200 on 2018-09-17||2018-09-21|
|Financials||XLF||1.81%||12.88%||rising||rising||rising||rising||ema9 on 2018-09-18||2018-09-21|
|Industrials||XLI||1.18%||13.36%||rising||rising||rising||rising||ema9 on 2018-09-05||2018-09-21|
|Energy||XLE||1.13%||12.32%||rising||falling||rising||falling||ma50 on 2018-09-18||2018-09-21|
|Healthcare||XLV||0.79%||15.56%||rising||rising||rising||rising||ema9 on 2018-09-12||2018-09-21|
|Cons Staples||XLP||0.47%||1.74%||rising||rising||falling||rising||ema9 on 2018-09-20||2018-09-21|
|Defense||ITA||0.42%||21.65%||rising||rising||rising||rising||ema9 on 2018-08-31||2018-09-21|
|Cons Discretionary||XLY||0.00%||30.80%||rising||rising||rising||falling||ema9 on 2018-09-21||2018-09-21|
|REIT||RWR||-0.14%||3.52%||falling||rising||rising||rising||ma50 on 2018-09-20||2018-09-21|
|Telecom||XTL||-0.25%||10.95%||rising||rising||rising||falling||ema9 on 2018-09-20||2018-09-21|
|Technology||XLK||-0.44%||27.56%||rising||rising||rising||falling||ema9 on 2018-09-20||2018-09-21|
|Homebuilders||XHB||-1.14%||3.99%||falling||falling||falling||rising||ma50 on 2018-09-21||2018-09-21|
|Utilities||XLU||-2.28%||-1.14%||falling||rising||falling||rising||ema9 on 2018-09-19||2018-09-21|
Gold in Other Currencies
Gold moved higher in every currency except the Euro.
Rates & Commodities
TLT fell another -1.22% this week, with the damage happening on Tuesday and Wednesday. Friday saw a bounce, which caused TLT forecaster to issue a buy signal. TY didn’t look quite as healthy; it fell -0.44% on the week, and Friday’s bounce wasn’t much of anything. TY daily remains in a strong downtrend; in fact, TY remains in a downtrend in all 3 timeframes. The 10-year yield broke sharply above the 3.0% level, rising +7.4 bp to 3.07%. It is fast approaching the previous high of 3.12%.
JNK fell -0.11% on the week; JNK’s uptrend might be faltering a bit. In the less-junky BAA corporate rates, we are seeing some fairly strong moves movement higher. The weekly chart is showing a breakout to new highs, with these levels last seen in April. This is a sign of risk off.
Crude rose +1.67 [+2.43%] to 70.38. Overall it was a good week for crude, but there was a fair amount of back and forth; on Friday crude made a new high, but lost all the gains by the close. EIA report was mildly bullish (crude: -2.1m, gasoline: -1.7m, distillates: +0.8m) which definitely helped crude to make its big move of the week. Assisting crude this week were declining exports from Iran due to the US sanctions (South Korea and Japan have ceased all crude oil imports), Saudi Arabia stating that $80 was a fine price for oil, much to Trump’s dismay (tweet: “OPEC must cap the price of oil!”), a decline in the North American rig count, and ongoing troubles in Libya.
Physical Supply Indicators
* The GLD ETF tonnage on hand fell -0.30 tons with 742 tons in inventory.
* ETF Discount to NAV:
PHYS 9.61 -1.70% to NAV [increase]
PSLV 5.19 -3.48% to NAV [increase]
CEF 11.68 -3.85% to NAV [increase]
* Bullion Vault gold (https://www.bullionvault.com/gold_market.do#!/orderboard) shows a $5 discount for gold and perhaps a 20c premium for silver.
* Big bars premiums were: gold [1kg] 1.0% and silver [1000oz] 3.56%.
Grey Swans & Geopolitics
Ebola: total cases 142, with 97 deaths. The number of new cases continues to drop slowly, but there are still challenges: people lost to contact follow-up, poor infection prevention in health centers, and reluctance of some cases to be treated in ebola treatment centers. It seems as though things could still go sideways at any moment.
Turkey: Last week’s big rate increase seems to have held, more or less: the 10-year yield rose +38 bp to 18.29%, which as these things go, isn’t too horrible. The USD/TRY rate rose +0.11 to 6.28, another relatively small move higher. Likely, the drop in the buck helped as well.
German Government/Migration: while migrants & refugees form 2% of Germany’s population, they form 8.5% of crime suspects; 10.4% of murder suspects, and 11.9% of sexual offense suspects. Roughly speaking, this group is 4.5 times likely to commit a crime, 5.2 times more likely to commit murder, and 6 times more likely to commit sexual assault than the average German citizen. This could be partially because of age; young men are far more likely to commit crime, and the migrants tend to be young and male. However – did the article assess how much more likely migrant/refugee young males are to commit crime than the average young German male? The article did not. I assume that is because the conclusion would not have been politically correct. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45419466
Italy – Migration: MSF “migrant sea taxi” Aquarius asked to land 11 migrants it rescued from Libyan coastal waters; Salvini refused. “Go wherever you want, but not to Italy.” There was also a kerfuffle between Luxembourg’s foreign minister and Salvini, whom he accused of using “fascist methods”; Salvini suggested that “if he likes immigrants so much, he can have all of them.” Fascist methods they may be, but to Salvini’s point, no politician in Europe is actually willing to accept migrants voluntarily, and especially not the very comfortable folks in Luxembourg (2017 per capita GDP: $108k). https://www.thelocal.it/20180917/matteo-salvini-jean-asselborn-italy-luxembourg-fascist
China – Tariffs & Debt: Trump laid out the tariff schedule this week: 10% on $200 billion in products starting September 24th, rising to 25% in January 2019. China will retaliate, and has decided to cancel plans to send a trade delegation to Washington.
Yield Curve Inversion: the 1-10 spread widened +6 bp to 49 bp.
US Congressional Elections, 2018. The generic ballot shows Democrats 49.3% [+8.8%] vs Republicans 40.5%. Democrat win → impeachment attempt. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/
North Korea: A summit between the Koreas resulted in an offer from the DPRK to dismantle its main nuclear complex, as well as a missile engine test site and launch pad in the presence of international experts, if the US takes “corresponding measures.” Trump tweeted his enthusiastic support.
Mueller Investigation: No news this week.
There were a whole raft of buy signals from the weekly metals forecasters, as well as very strong moves higher in both copper and palladium. The “other metals” markets seem to be suggesting that the tariff problems are over, which is a bit surprising given that Trump escalated the tariff fight, and that the Chinese cancelled trade talks – although to be fair, the cancellation happened on Saturday, after market close. 10-year rates also blew through 3% with some enthusiasm. If the rate move continues, it will almost certainly result in an economic hit, but only one that will be felt 3-6 months in the future. Also, a break above the previous rate high of 3.12% could lead to some panic selling in bonds.
Big bar gold premiums remain low, silver premiums are slightly elevated, while ETF discounts remain fairly high. My supply indicators suggest there is no current shortage of physical gold.
The gold and silver COT reports shows net positions remain at historical levels; this is very bullish, as commercials are very seldom net long silver or gold, and they are net long both gold and silver at the moment.
While the very strong rallies in palladium and copper are pretty much what I expected to see following good news in the tariff fight, gold’s weak response to both that, and the falling buck doesn’t make me feel very sanguine about the near-term prospects for the metals. Perhaps it wasn’t enough of a solution, or perhaps it wasn’t enough of a trigger. Certainly, the shorts didn’t seem to be leaning on price this week at all – there was scant increase in open interest, and certainly no big moves in the COT report either.
I also expected a lot more out of silver, especially seeing that 8% move in copper.
I guess with equities making new highs, nobody is interested in gold right now. That doesn’t explain silver, however; usually it rallies alongside economic activity.
That gold/silver ratio in the mid-80s (84.15, at end of week) tells us that silver is – still – very cheap relative to gold, and that usually happens at or near lows in the metals. This, along with the COT report, remain positive technical signs for the long term, but as to when there will be some actual buying pressure for either gold or silver, that’s an unknown.
Ultimately I’m right in line with KWN commentator Bill Fleckenstein, whose resigned tone in his interview with Eric King matches my mood almost exactly. Perhaps it can be summarized as – paraphrased – “Everything looks great. Now all we need to see are buyers. Of course, who knows when they’ll appear.”
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