PM End of Week Market Commentary – 8/14/2015
On Friday, gold fell -1.00 to 1113.20 on moderate volume, while silver dropped -0.18 to 15.22 on moderately heavy volume. PM rallied early, peaking at around 10:15 EDT, and at around 10:45 the selling started which ended up dropping gold $10 and silver $0.35. I couldn't tie it to any economic report – the dollar did stage a rally at that time, but it wasn't particularly violent.
On the week, gold rose +19.90 [+1.82%], silver rose 0.44 [+2.94%], GDX climbed +8.13% and GDXJ gained +10.70%. Platinum was up +3.13% and palladium rose +3.16%.
At long last gold printed its swing low, broke above the 9 EMA, and rallied. A decent amount of the move was currency-related – the buck dropped -1.11% over the week. Once gold had rallied for 5 days it had to endure some selling, which was relatively lower volume and bounded by the 9 EMA. My sense is, as long as the selling doesn't push gold to close below its 9 EMA, and the volume of the down-days stays relatively low, the corrections are not a threat to the nascent uptrend.
Silver jumped above its consolidation area, rallied above its 50 MA, and then corrected back down, finding support on its 9 EMA. So far, things look pretty good for silver. If it can remain above that 9 EMA during the corrections, all will be well. Volume on the up-days also looks quite strong.
Senior miners printed a swing low, and jumped above the 9 EMA all at once to start the week, rocketed higher, and then corrected. During the correction, GDX found support at the 9 EMA, which is a positive sign. However as with gold and silver, if a correction drags the miners to close below the 9 EMA, that will be bearish. If that occurs, I'd expect the miners to drop back down to re-test the lows.
The juniors looked even stronger than the senior miners, with GDXJ rallying up to the 50 MA before encountering resistance. GDXJ also found support at its 9 EMA during its subsequent correction. If the juniors can close above the 50 MA, that would be quite bullish.
The dollar fell this week, dropping -1.09 [-1.11%] to 96.53, but managing to remain above its 50 MA. Where the dollar goes from here – its anyone's guess. If dollar weakness continues, that will encourage PM to rally further but if there is significant strength in the buck we probably lose the PM rally.
From what I can tell, the dollar has largely stopped rallying on news that indicates a Fed rate-rise is increasingly likely. It is quite possible that a rate rise is now built into current prices. What might move the dollar higher? Flight-to-safety issues in Europe, or perhaps more CNY devaluations.
On the week, SPX climbed +13.97 to 2091, moving higher off a bullish-looking hammer candle it printed on Wednesday. However, the market isn't responding particularly well to good economic news right now – positive Industrial Production reports and good Retail Sales numbers aren't causing rallies. It appears to me that equities are looking more closely at the Fed and the prospect of a rate increase to get a sense as to whether or not "the party is over". And if you pull back and look at the monthly chart, you can see that the upward momentum of the SPX has definitely stopped. This is also visible in the momentum indicators, all of which are saying the same thing. Looks like a monthly close below that monthly 9 EMA (2067) would be a big danger sign – it hasn't done that since early-2012.
And here's another indicator – the spread of junk credit vs spot treasury bonds – FRED timeseries BAMLH0A3HYC. In the chart below, you can see that whenever this indicator starts to seriously spike higher, its a definite "risk off" sign for the equity market. The move this week was quite dramatic, and may be signaling the start of something interesting in the near future.
VIX fell -0.56 to 12.83. If the CCC credit spreads are foretelling the future, options are quite cheap.
Gold in Other Currencies
While gold rose in all currencies, gold did especially well in Rubles, Rupees, and Yuan this week – falling currencies including the CNY devaluation helped out substantially.
Rates & Commodities
Bonds (TLT) made a new high on the week but closed lower, dropping -0.31%. Still, bonds remain above all tthree moving averages, and they still look quite strong.
Junk bonds (JNK) fell -0.48% on the week, dropping alongside oil and making a new low. That's risk off.
The CRB (commodity index) fell gently this week, down -0.18% making another new low. CRB closed briefly above its 9 EMA on Monday, but immediately was driven back below it the very next day. In the chart below you can see that downside momentum has definitely slowed (MACD and RSI show this clearly), but the CRB is still struggling to put in a low. Note that gold showed these same signs of slowing momentum immediately prior to the nice rally that happened this week.
WTIC fell as well, losing -1.01 [-2.31%] to 42.74, setting a new 6-year low of 41.91 on Thursday. Unlike for commodities, there is no sign at all of slowing momentum for WTIC. Brent looks slightly better – it rose +0.23 on the week, but its weekly candle was a gravestone doji, indicating a failed rally, and that's bearish.
Physical Supply Indicators
* Shanghai premiums rose to +6.65 over COMEX.
* The GLD ETF gained +4.18 tons, with 671.81 tons remaining.
* GC futures increased its backwardation this week, with the current two-front-month spread at -0.50.
* ETF Premium/Discount to NAV; gold closing (15:59 close price on Aug 14th) of 1114.40 and silver 15.19:
PHYS 9.17 -0.59% to NAV [down]
PSLV 5.87 +0.16% to NAV [up]
CEF 10.73 -11.00% to NAV [up]
GTU 38.41 -6.22% to NAV [down]
ETF premiums were mixed.
* Bullion Vault gold (https://www.bullionvault.com/gold_market.do#!/orderboard) shows no significant premium for gold, but the offers for silver over the weekend other than in London have widened to 30 cents over spot.
The COT report covered trading through Aug 11th, when gold closed at 1107.70 and silver 15.28.
The gold commercials have started to increase their short positions, adding 4.8k contracts on the week. Managed Money is just starting to go long (adding 4.9k contracts) but has yet to cover shorts in any meaningful way, dropping just 923 short contracts on the week. We still have yet to see any substantial short-covering fireworks in gold.
In silver, the commercials have yet to add to their short positions, while Managed Money has covered a big 8.4k shorts on the week. That's a fairly large change (about 20% of the total MM short position), which explains silver's better performance this week.
Managed Money is starting to get nervous with silver, but not yet with gold. Perhaps if the commodity complex were to turn, we'd see Managed Money bail out of their gold short positions with more enthusiasm
Moving Average Trends [9 EMA, 50 MA, 200 MA]
We're seeing a lot more green in the table this week, but so far it is limited to the 9 EMA. PM remains in a falling trend in every other timeframe.
|Name||Chart||Change||52w ch||EMA9||MA50||MA200||50/200||Last Crossing||last|
|Silver Miners||SIL||0.00%||-48.97%||rising||falling||falling||falling||ema9 on 2015-08-10||2015-08-14|
|Gold||COMEX.Gold||-0.26%||-15.43%||rising||falling||falling||falling||ema9 on 2015-08-07||2015-08-14|
|Junior Miners||GDXJ||-0.29%||-49.88%||rising||falling||falling||falling||ema9 on 2015-08-10||2015-08-14|
|Platinum||COMEX.Platinum||-0.49%||-32.31%||rising||falling||falling||falling||ema9 on 2015-08-10||2015-08-13|
|Senior Miners||GDX||-1.02%||-46.24%||rising||falling||falling||falling||ema9 on 2015-08-10||2015-08-14|
|Silver||COMEX.Silver||-1.21%||-23.58%||rising||falling||falling||falling||ma50 on 2015-08-14||2015-08-14|
Gold and silver buyers finally showed up, pushing both metals sharply higher on the week, with silver outperforming gold. Gold finally printed a swing low, and everything in the PM complex closed the week above their respective (daily) 9 EMAs. So far, so good.
The gold/silver ratio fell, dropping -0.81 to 73.16, nearing the mid-point of its recent 10-month trading range. The GDX:$GOLD ratio took off higher this week, erasing two weeks worth of losses. The ratio supports an "early bullish" trend change case. The GDXJ:GDX ratio moved higher this week, continuing its steady recovery that started in May. All the ratios suggest things are improving.
The COT reports show no short covering yet for gold, but a fairly substantial short-covering rally for silver. Managed Money is still showing no fear at all in gold, which will limit gold's upside.
Physical shortage indicators are slowly starting to hint at shortages; in the west, ETF premiums were mixed, GLD tonnage rose, but backwardation at COMEX is increasing. In the east, premiums in Shanghai are increasingly positive.
Commodity prices dropped again this week, though momentum has noticeably slowed – momentum indicators are showing signs that often appear prior to a rally. Oil continues to look quite weak. The dollar's correction this week definitely helped PM, but could not rescue plummeting oil prices. If dollar weakness continues, we likely see another leg up for PM. As always, a bottom in commodity prices should greatly help PM too.
Can gold and silver continue to rally while commodity prices fall? So far they seem to be doing just that. It could be that PM is leading the overall commodity complex, and that commodities will mark a low and start to rally next week. It would help if oil finally stops dropping, although there aren't any signs of that happening yet.
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I was surprised to see the USD dropped this week given the devaluation of the Yuan. Every currency seemed to weaken this week. Is that possible? I thought that the currency wars were a zero sum game where one currency had to go up if another went down. It seems that the only way for them all to go down would be thin air printing everywhere. Simplistic perhaps.
Also, if the rate increase is already priced into the market, what happens if the Fed disappoints in September now that the CNY is plummeting? USD drops and stocks go wild as the party goes on?
Texas Precious Metals, whose website is a good reference for availability since they only advertise for sale those items they have in stock, is now showing completely out of stock for high end minted coins, i.e. the Canadian Wildlife series, AND the Perth Mint Funnel web spider coins. This is a very rare event and suggests to me that the demand for such coins in increasing.. and that there are continued supply constrictions in Silver in general. These are HIGH MARKUP items, and the mints would keep making them if the blanks were available. The blanks are not available because there is not enough Silver available, period.
Physical shortage indicators are slowly starting to hint at shortages
To my sensibilities, the market is now screaming of shortages. You can read more here;
The market is teetering here.. delays are pushing out farther and farther. We are all about to be, "capital controlled" out of our ability to buy retail Silver… watch and see. The Silver ATM is being shut down… you are all watching this happen in slow motion but you don't understand what you are seeing. Dave will tell you to go buy a 1000 ounce bar – good luck finding one of those (http://www.apmex.com/product/81/1000-oz-silver-bar-comex-deliverable). Governments/banksters are making choices for us by not minting coins… they are making choices for us by allocating the supplies of available blanks away from generic rounds. They are making choices for us by allowing industry to be supplied with cheap Silver vs. those of us looking to save in Silver.
Your option for escaping the $$ system into Silver, at least before the paper vs. phys reset happens, is going to time out.
While I definitely agree with Jim H. and his belief that at some point the other shoe has to drop, I specifically asked one of my three sources today about demand….he isn't seeing it yet. Jim, you have your pulse on the entire market much more than I do, so people should defer to your observations….maybe we are starting to see more people buying.
Any of comments I am relaying from my dealer should be taken with a touch of reality. Here in northern VT I know of only three dealers who sell silver, and they are all within 45 minutes of my house. I imagine most people who visit PP would have a fair bit more opportunity to buy physical. More stores, higher population centers. At least in Vermont, the demand may not be high, as the dealers here probably use ebay, etc, to get a lot of their product. We are talking really small time. Small demand in one of the smallest markets really doesn't add much to the conversation I guess.
However, Jim's comments about this happening in slow motion is a great observation. Who knows how much longer we have before the meaning of paper and physical because obvious to everyone. Just wish I could buy more.
I think something will happen soon. Gainesville coins looks to be running low on a lot of silver also. Where I live real estate is going crazy. Lots of people from out of town buying with cash looking for a place to put there money. 70 percent of sales are cash. The frenzy of buying and building is making the 2005 boom look tiny. Bubble territory!
This week: EUR/USD +1.13%, AUD/USD -0.53%, JPY/USD +0.09, CAD/USD +0.34%, GBP/USD +0.97%.
Also, CNY/USD -2.92%.
So the buck sank against most of the "USD Index" currencies, but it rose against the CNY. How can this be? The USD index was constructed long before China was an economic power, and so USD index does not include CNY. Normally we can ignore CNY since China maintains a peg, but times like this when they let the peg loose, our standard measurements fail to inform us properly.
There is a different dollar index – the "broad trade weighted dollar index" which changes composition every so often that FRED provides – DTWEXB. Unfortunately, they give this to us with a 1-week delay, so my last update to that was on Aug 7th. The delay makes it useless for our more real-time needs – explaining "what happened today."
You are right, you can predict what I'll say. If you are desperate for silver, PSLV has a premium of exactly +0.16%. Go buy a bunch of PSLV shares, and take delivery of a big bar. No doubt there will be delivery charges, but they aren't all that expensive. If PSLV premiums are this low, we don't have a silver shortage.
Please repeat after me: a coin blank shortage is not a silver shortage. Its just a coin blank shortage. You are welcome to turn that into a grand conspiracy – and it may even be a grand conspiracy – but as long as we consumers can get big bars without substantial premiums, so can industry, and so can investors, and so your super exciting silver coin shortage is simply about form rather than metal.
Most silver is not in coin form, its in big bar form. Thus, it makes sense to look at the big bars rather than the coins. Tail, dog, wagging, etc.
I know this is not what you want to hear, and frankly its not what I want to say, but that's what the evidence is telling me. Your coin shortage tells me that retail is buying the dips. That's good, but its not producing a silver shortage. It is just making extra money for those who happen to have silver coins in inventory.
I just wrote some code to scrape the HAA site for prices and premiums. Here are the results, sorted by premium. I think the answer is, "don't buy Silver Eagles in Sydney." Even 1oz rounds in New York are only at 5% premium.
You tell me. Do we have shortages? It does look like the silver 1000 oz COMEX bars are at a 3.65% premium, which is higher than the gold 100oz COMEX bars at 2.27%. That's something.
We definitely have shortages of Silver Eagles. If you absolutely have to have your silver in that form, you're going to pay through the nose for it. Do you think, perhaps, coin shops that stock silver eagles enjoy this situation? What might they tell you if you were to go there? "OMG we're running out of silver! Buy my silver eagles quick before they're all gone!"
To quote a line from the intro to Bored of the Rings: "A <blank> and his <blank> soon are <blank>."
Unfortunately, I don't have history for these values. Wouldn't that be nice to have? I'm sure the HAA people have better things to do than maintain data for me.
Texas Precious Metals, whose website is a good reference for availability since they only advertise for sale those items they have in stock, is now showing completely out of stock for high end minted coins….. This is a very rare event and suggests to me that the demand for such coins in increasing.. and that there are continued supply constrictions in Silver in general.
Last month my PM dealer mentioned that 50% of his customers are new. I view the increase in retail silver sales as an increasing distrust in government and a desire to diversify out of government controlled paper money. Silver represents the easiest, most affordable way to get off the paper grid and into something tangible. We are in the early stages of an awareness that something is horribly wrong.