PM End of Week Market Commentary – 7/17/2015

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  • Mon, Jul 20, 2015 - 02:40am

    #11
    davefairtex

    davefairtex

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    gold assault

I'm surprised at how far down it went, but not that the assault took place.  We got hints on Friday that there was danger ahead after the rebound off 1130 was almost nonexistent.  Shorts really just had to give this a try.

Now that the last long stops have been removed, we have a chance at making a low here.  I see the shorts tried to push the price even lower six minutes after the large spike down, but that failed.  If the buyers show up to buy the dip, this could turn out to be good news.

It all depends on who (at the COMEX) wants to buy gold here around 1100.

Armstrong thinks gold will bottom out at $1000 – or at least, that's what he hinted at the other day.

I'm not sure we head down there just yet.  I think we have a bounce coming relatively soon.

  • Mon, Jul 20, 2015 - 03:06am

    #12

    koigrl

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    elevator stomach.

What do you think gold will open at in london? i'm looking for dry powder. wink

  • Mon, Jul 20, 2015 - 03:23am

    #13

    Jim H

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    Here comes the run on phys…

At 10:59 I received an email from Gainesville coins advertising some items I could buy on this new dip… they included random year Canada Gold Maples, and random year Pt Maples.  When I actually looked at the email and clicked on each just now (11:20) both were OUT OF STOCK already.  Ha ha ha ha ha ha….. this is getting just downright silly.  

  • Mon, Jul 20, 2015 - 11:53am

    #14
    Nate

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    Armstrong

[quote=davefairtex]

Armstrong thinks gold will bottom out at $1000 – or at least, that's what he hinted at the other day.

[/quote]

From Armstrong:

Archives

Has anyone noticed the spreads on physical silver?

  • Mon, Jul 20, 2015 - 12:29pm

    #15
    davefairtex

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    bullion vault

Bullion vault has 40 cent spreads on silver in singapore and toronto, but not in zurich and london.

So far the gold rebound: "not nearly enough".  If this is all the buying we can muster by end of day, this will probably end up being a breakdown rather than a low.

Silver looks somewhat better, but its not enough either, at least not yet.

I shudder to think what happens to the miners when the market opens in an hour.

Of course, if the miners get bought (after a first-hour selloff), that is a sign too.

Last point: there is no need to rush out and try to "buy the absolute low" in times like these.  If we drop to $1000, and then the market reverses, you will have thanked yourself for waiting.  Likewise, if we rebound today, and re-cross $1130, the $20 difference in price you will have missed out on won't be noticeable.

Basically I'm saying, wait for the momentum to noticeably reverse before buying the dip.  Let someone else be the hero and try to pick the low.

  • Mon, Jul 20, 2015 - 02:10pm

    #16

    janb

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    bullion vault

Hi Dave,  Many thanks to you for that practical and specific advice. I always look for your experienced insights at times like this.   Jan

  • Mon, Jul 20, 2015 - 03:04pm

    #17
    davefairtex

    davefairtex

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    silver could be the “tell” today

Lest we be caught up in the gold götterdämmerung, silver is actually showing some pretty good support, after dropping sympathetically with gold's crash through 1130 earlier today in Asia.

If silver can close above 14.83, we have a decent possibility of marking a low in silver.

I think a lot of what is going on with gold right now is some pretty significant fear-based selling.  Once that clears up, I'm guessing we'll see a bounce.

And if silver marks a low, it will most likely drag gold right up along with it.

I do NOT think gold is going to 1000 on this particular leg, based on what I see today.  I think its much more likely we'll bounce back up through 1130.  It may take a few days to play out, however.

  • Mon, Jul 20, 2015 - 05:14pm

    #18

    Jim H

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    Miners to buy for the brave at heart

Wanted to get any opinions on miners today.  Hard to buy when there is blood in the streets… but at some point there will be a bottom.  I am interested in GORO today… 52 week low, profitable, and with a 5% dividend that appears reasonably sustainable (vs. EPS).  A tiny $100M market cap.  US and Mexico.  Gold and Silver. 

  • Mon, Jul 20, 2015 - 05:25pm

    #19
    KugsCheese

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    Jim H wrote:Wanted to get

[quote=Jim H]

Wanted to get any opinions on miners today.  Hard to buy when there is blood in the streets… but at some point there will be a bottom.  I am interested in GORO today… 52 week low, profitable, and with a 5% dividend that appears reasonably sustainable (vs. EPS).  A tiny $100M market cap.  US and Mexico.  Gold and Silver. 

[/quote]

GDXJ TTM P/E is still ~12.   I consider fair value 8.  Once it hits 6 I will buy GDXJ probably.  Many good industrials went to 5-6 in 2009.

  • Mon, Jul 20, 2015 - 05:45pm

    #20

    thc0655

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    Texas Precious Metals

I got this email from Texas Precious Metals this morning.  I like them for several reasons, but one is because since they only sell what they have in stock, I can get an idea about shortages and availability.

Gold, silver and platinum fell to new 5-year lows on Sunday night before staging a rally. Gold dropped as low as $1072, silver to $14.54, and platinum to $946. All three precious metals quickly rallied, and have settled higher. 



We are experiencing high order volume. Presently, we are sold out of the following products:



1 oz Silver Bars

1 oz Generic Buffalo Rounds

Junk Silver Bags

Austrian Philharmonic Monster Boxes



We have 30,000 Silver Eagles remaining in stock, and we will not receive more supply until August 3rd. We have 18,000 Texas Silver Rounds in stock. New stock will arrive July 27th. Both products will be sold on a first come, first serve basis.



Sincerely,

Jason Kaspar

CEO, Texas Precious Metals

As I expected their premium on silver Eagles has gone up with the dwindling supply.  Last week it was $3.03/oz (when buying 500 or more).  Today it is $3.24.  So the premium increase has more than compensated for the drop in spot last week when I was considering buying.  I've seen that before so when I decided not to buy last week I knew it meant I would be waiting a while until the supply was built back up and the premium came back down.  So, I'm still waiting.

However, now gold is so low I'm considering withdrawing some gold Eagles from my IRA.  Paying the 28% tax now seems like a bargain compared to paying 15-20% after I'm retired and the price has quadrupled or whatever.

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