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PM End of Week Market Commentary – 1/15/2016

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  • Tue, Jan 19, 2016 - 04:22pm

    #12

    Eannao

    Status Bronze Member (Offline)

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    Posts: 155

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    Predictive Utility of Cycles

Dave, 

cycles certainly seem to be useful, but as you describe, things are rarely that simple; Cycles overlap and unprecedented events can occur, which skew the outcomes. e.g. Peak Resources or QE 1-3. 

Demographic cycles seem to be a particularly useful indicator when it comes to Real Estate, because unlike most other goods, Real Estate is permanent. Thus people dying are automatic sellers. Dent subtracts "dyers from buyers" to predict demand. He's got lots of good info on demographics in the book. I'll have to read-up on Armstrong's Government cycle. 

Thanks for your input. E.

  • Tue, Jan 19, 2016 - 04:23pm

    #11

    Eannao

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    Duplicate

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  • Tue, Jan 19, 2016 - 05:26pm

    #13

    davefairtex

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    miners crushed: -4.58%

While gold hasn't moved much, miners are just getting crushed today.  With gold down just $4, and silver rallying +0.19, GDX and GDXJ have both lost -4.58%.  Miners are just being smashed.  I have no idea why – other than this just being a continuation from last week's miner sell-a-thon that started on Monday.

The strange thing is, silver miners are also getting crushed.  SSRI down -10.45%, SLW -3.77%, HL -9.88%, PAAS -7.10%, AG -9.16%.  The single-day losses in silver miners are pretty horrific – with silver up 1.37%!

It makes little sense, except massive liquidation by some big player out there who feels the need to raise cash fast.  It reminds me of 2008 – when SLW was beaten down to $3/share because of all the forced liquidation.

 

  • Tue, Jan 19, 2016 - 06:02pm

    #14

    Chris Martenson

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    Miners smashed….

[quote=davefairtex]

While gold hasn't moved much, miners are just getting crushed today.  With gold down just $4, and silver rallying +0.19, GDX and GDXJ have both lost -4.58%.  Miners are just being smashed.  I have no idea why – other than this just being a continuation from last week's miner sell-a-thon that started on Monday.

The strange thing is, silver miners are also getting crushed.  SSRI down -10.45%, SLW -3.77%, HL -9.88%, PAAS -7.10%, AG -9.16%.  The single-day losses in silver miners are pretty horrific – with silver up 1.37%!

It makes little sense, except massive liquidation by some big player out there who feels the need to raise cash fast.  It reminds me of 2008 – when SLW was beaten down to $3/share because of all the forced liquidation.

[/quote]

Uh oh.

Try to act surprised when later on, perhaps tonight at 1:28 a.m., there's a large bid-stack crushing dump of paper PMs.

This is how these operators operate.  They accumulate large positions in the related instruments (shares, options and ETFs) and then crush the paper price of the physical.

Wash, rinse, repeat.

This sort of manipulation has been happening for a long time….back when I was trading paper silver and gold (2005-2008) I would never dream of doing so without having the miners open and tracked on my other screen.

  • Tue, Jan 19, 2016 - 06:18pm

    #15

    thc0655

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    I’m watching for that and ready to pounce

Dave wrote:

It makes little sense, except massive liquidation by some big player out there who feels the need to raise cash fast.  It reminds me of 2008 – when SLW was beaten down to $3/share because of all the forced liquidation.

Chris wrote:

Try to act surprised when later on, perhaps tonight at 1:28 a.m., there's a large bid-stack crushing dump of paper PMs.

This is how these operators operate.  They accumulate large positions in the related instruments (shares, options and ETFs) and then crush the paper price of the physical.

For over a year, I've been building up a stack of mass-produced, worthless pieces of paper with pictures on them to trade for silver exactly when the above referenced dynamic hits.  I'm hoping if I strike quickly (within 24-48 hours) I can capture the dramatic drop in the spot price before all the dealers raise their premiums to compensate for the drop in spot. I've done it before, but this looks to be the last big chance before the approaching Darkness descends completely and all the rules and expectations blow up, making decision-making extremely difficult.  I'm looking for silver eagles at $16.25 or less.

"Welcome to the Hunger Games. And may the odds be ever in your favor."

  • Tue, Jan 19, 2016 - 06:45pm

    #16

    davefairtex

    Status Diamond Member (Offline)

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    manipulation setup?

I'm pretty sure this is not a manipulation setup.

SIL, the silver miner ETF, is down 22% since the start of the year.  Silver at COMEX is actually up 2.2% over that same period.  This isn't some sort of game, somebody is heaving the miners wholesale right off the lifeboat – and it feels like it is not because they want to, its because they have to.

Again, it feels the same as 2008.  Silver miner charts all look horrible – just no bids at all – while silver-the-metal chart is starting to actually look modestly constructive.  I know COMEX silver has been batted around recently (and so a 40 cent pounding wouldn't be "abnormal"), but…my computer is long silver at this point.  That's another hint for me.

Again, check ratio charts SIL:SLV and GDX:GLD.  They show it much more clearly than the miner charts themselves.  Something pretty dramatic changed last monday, and now there is just panic selling in the miners.

  • Tue, Jan 19, 2016 - 08:19pm

    #17
    Cornelius999

    Cornelius999

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    A Governments Kicker?

Dave, have a look at " A Year of Sovereign Defaults? by Carmel Reinhart on yesterday's Daily Digest 1/18. Is this Armstrong's  government's cycles also about to kick in?

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