PM Daily Market Commentary – 9/5/2018
Gold rose +5.31 [+0.44%] to 1204.15 on moderately light volume, while silver moved up +0.03 [+0.21%] to 14.22 on moderate volume. The buck fell -0.26%, which accounts for a fair amount of the move in the metals.
Gold moved steadily higher all day long, seemingly tracking copper prices rather than the Euro, or the Yen, or any of the other suspects. Gold’s candle print was a neutral-looking bullish harami, and gold forecaster moved up +0.16 to -0.15, which is still a downtrend for gold. Gold remains below its 9 MA, and is in a downtrend in all 3 timeframes. That said – gold’s downtrend is a lot milder either silver, or the miners.
COMEX GC open interest fell -4,675 contracts.
Rate rise chances (September 2018) remain at 100%.
Silver chopped sideways in a narrow trading range with a slight upward bias. The candle print was a bullish harami, which was just slightly bullish (27% reversal), while the forecaster moved up +0.22 to -0.52. Silver remains in a downtrend in all 3 timeframes.
COMEX SI open interest fell -1,573 contracts.
The gold/silver ratio rose +0.20 to 84.68. The rising ratio is bearish – but the level suggests PM could be at or near a long term low.
Miners fell again today, with GDX off -0.83% on moderate volume, while GDXJ dropped -0.96% on moderate volume also. XAU fell -0.57%, and the short black candle was a bearish continuation. Forecaster dropped -0.14 to -0.80. The new low was bearish too. XAU is in a downtrend in all 3 timeframes.
The GDX:$GOLD ratio fell -1.27%, while the GDXJ:GDX ratio dropped -0.13. That’s bearish.
Platinum rose +0.84%, palladium dropped -0.86%, while copper rose +0.85%. Palladium was the outlier today – I got the sense that copper was the leader and everything else more or less followed copper higher, to varying degrees. That said, all 3 other metals remain in downtrends, so things still remain bearish.
The buck fell -0.25 [-0.26%] to 94.79. The spinning top candle was actually a bullish continuation, but forecaster dipped -0.16 to +0.43; the buck remains in an uptrend in the daily and monthly timeframes, and it also remains above its 9 MA. Today’s drop didn’t change the trend.
Crude fell -0.74 [-1.07%] to 68.27. Sadly for the price of crude, Hurricane Gordon managed to miss every single piece of oil-producing equipment in the gulf. API was mildly bearish (crude: -1.2m, gasoline: +1m, distillates: +1.8m), which was responsible for about $0.22 of today’s decline. Crude printed a swing high today (49% bearish reversal), and crude forecaster plunged -0.35 to -0.04, which is a sell signal for crude. Crude also closed the day below its 9 MA. Crude remains in an uptrend in the weekly and monthly timeframes.
SPX fell -8.12 [-0.28%] to 2888.60. Once again, most of the losses in SPX came in the futures markets overnight; SPX sold off during the day, but managed to bounce back, printing a takuri line candle which was actually just a bearish continuation. Forecaster plunged -0.37 to -0.26, which is a sell signal for SPX. SPX is now below its 9 MA, but remains in an uptrend in the weekly and monthly timeframes. Sector map shows utilities did best (XLU:+1.40%) along with staples (XLP:+1.15%) while tech (XLK:-1.25%) and cyclicals (XLY:-1.08%) led lower. That’s a bearish sector map. Even so, the US still did fairly well compared to the rest of the world.
VIX +0.75 to 13.91.
TLT continued moving lower, losing -0.27%, making a new low. TY looked a bit better, rising +0.02%; TY forecaster remains in a downtrend in both daily and weekly timeframes. The 10-year yield was unchanged at 2.90%.
JNK continued falling, down -0.11%, avoiding a new low, but remaining in a downtrend.
CRB fell -0.58%, with 3 of 5 sectors moving lower, led by energy (-1.38%). CRB is now back below all 3 moving averages, and remains solidly in a downtrend. It appears to be in the process of forming yet another lower high.
Today’s bounce in the metals was a mildly positive sign, but certainly not a reversal of any sort. Gold did see some short-covering today, which looks helpful, as did copper. Perhaps if the rally continues today we can see if that changes things in the mining shares, which still look horribly weak.
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